James Madison routs Marshall 45-17

Team pages: Marshall · James Madison

Marshall3-217
James Madison5-045Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Bridgeforth Stadium, Harrisonburg, Va. · Crowd 25,034ESPNU

James Madison routed Marshall 45-17.

We had James Madison favored. It won.

Next: Marshall lost to Coastal Carolina 27-21, Sat Oct 10

Next: James Madison beat Georgia Southern 27-24, Sat Oct 10

Top comment in the game thread

Grevious? A fine addition to my collection.

Q2 0:26 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave James Madison an 80% chance, and the closing betting line (James Madison was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.

FinalJames Madison 45-17 MarshallJames Madison wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4James MadisonWon45-17Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4James MadisonWon45-17Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4James MadisonLowest 0%Lost17-45Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4James MadisonLowest 0%Lost17-45Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 2:33James Madison fans criticize their defense for playing corners too deepWhy are we playing our corners 10 yards off their receiversr/CFB game thread
  2. Q2 9:46The running back did not cut inside early on his touchdown run.See GP is great when he doesn’t cut earlyr/CFB game thread
  3. Q2 2:45James Madison fans praise Pettaway's 33-yard touchdown runPettaway is arguably a Top 3 JMU RB of all timer/CFB game thread
  4. Q2 0:26Coleman to Grevious touchdown makes it 38-14 as JMU fans celebrateQuoted at the top of the page.
  5. Q4 7:21James Madison fans celebrate Kelly's interception to end Marshall's driveAnother great route by Kelly. That's a TD in the NFL, 2 toes down.r/CFB game threadOk, well, the defense has slightly redeemed itself with that pick.r/CFB game thread
James Madison’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (James Madison -14.5), at 89% for James Madison (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show James Madison’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 6:35Del Rio-Wilson 3-yd TD pass to Turner-BradshawMarshall goes ahead 7-0Q1, 6:35 · James Madison 0, Marshall 7▼7%James Madison’s chance to win, 82% to 75%▼7%James Madison’s chance to win, 82% to 75%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q2, 14:26Lester 1-yd TD runMarshall goes ahead 14-10Q2, 14:26 · James Madison 10, Marshall 14▼6%James Madison’s chance to win, 82% to 76%▼6%James Madison’s chance to win, 82% to 76%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 9:46Pettaway 73-yd TD runJames Madison leads 24-14Q2, 9:46 · James Madison 24, Marshall 14▲4%James Madison’s chance to win, 90% to 94%▲4%James Madison’s chance to win, 90% to 94%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 5:29Del Rio-Wilson intercepted by Kelly at the JMU00Q2, 5:29 · James Madison 24, Marshall 14▲5%James Madison’s chance to win, 91% to 96%▲5%James Madison’s chance to win, 91% to 96%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q2, 0:26Coleman 20-yd TD pass to GreviousJames Madison leads 38-14Q2, 0:26 · James Madison 38, Marshall 14▲2%James Madison’s chance to win, 98% to 100%▲2%James Madison’s chance to win, 98% to 100%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q3, 8:56Coleman run for a 11-yd lossfumblesQ3, 8:56 · James Madison 38, Marshall 1438-14score after the play38-14score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q4, 11:05Turner sacked for a 7-yd lossQ4, 11:05 · James Madison 38, Marshall 1738-17score after the play38-17score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  8. Q4, 5:54Turner intercepted by Kelly at the JMU00Q4, 5:54 · James Madison 38, Marshall 1738-17score after the play38-17score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  9. Q4, 0:50Herman 3-yd TD runJames Madison leads 45-17Q4, 0:50 · James Madison 45, Marshall 17▲3%James Madison’s chance to win, 96% to 99%▲3%James Madison’s chance to win, 96% to 99%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

James Madison scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Marshall on 3 of its 13.

James Madison’s drives are teal, Marshall’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1James Madison: Punt, from 65 yards out to 49PuntMarshall: Touchdown, from 89 yards out to 0TouchdownJames Madison: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Punt, from 77 yards out to 76PuntJames Madison: Field goal, from 48 yards out to 5Field goalMarshall: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2James Madison: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntJames Madison: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Interception, from 75 yards out to 26InterceptionJames Madison: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: Punt, from 90 yards out to 78PuntJames Madison: Touchdown, from 54 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: End of half, from 75 yards out to 59End of halfQ3Marshall: Punt, from 75 yards out to 56PuntJames Madison: Fumble, from 83 yards out to 64FumbleMarshall: Field goal, from 12 yards out to 9Field goalJames Madison: Missed field goal, from 71 yards out to 30Missed FGMarshall: Punt, from 70 yards out to 70PuntJames Madison: Punt, from 79 yards out to 75PuntMarshall: Turned over on downs, from 70 yards out to 26DownsQ4James Madison: Punt, from 74 yards out to 65PuntMarshall: Interception, from 94 yards out to 7InterceptionJames Madison: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownMarshall: End of game, from 75 yards out to 64End of game
“Wow. That looked like it was 3 and out.”
A James Madison fan

When fans got loud

Loud

Fans saved their loudest stretch for the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthJames Madison fansMarshall fansusual

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“That’s the Marshall defense I know…”
A Marshall fan

What it cost

James Madison’s chance to make the playoff rose from 15% to 18%.

Make the playoff

Marshall · lost1% → ▼0%
James Madison · won15% → ▲18%15%▲ 18%

Win the conference

Marshall · lost8% → ▼4%8%▼ 4%
James Madison · won32% → ▲37%32%▲ 37%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

James Madison 45, Marshall 17

James Madison covered −14.5 by 13.5. The total, 62, went over 55.5.

MarshallJames MadisonTotal yardsMarshall 444James Madison 573444573Passing yardsMarshall 309James Madison 263309263Rushing yardsMarshall 135James Madison 310135310First downsMarshall 23James Madison 252325TurnoversMarshall 2James Madison 121Time of possessionMarshall 31:55James Madison 28:0531:5528:05
Team totalsMarshallJames Madison
Total yards444573
Passing29 of 51, 309 yds21 of 32, 263 yds
Rushing30 for 135 yds35 for 310 yds
First downs2325
Third down8 of 166 of 12
Fourth down1 of 20 of 0
Turnovers21
Penalties9 for 75 yds5 for 53 yds
Time of possession31:5528:05

Marshall leaders

  • Passing Carlos Del Rio-Wilson 21 of 37, 221 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Joshon Barbie 7 for 44 yds; Khalil Wilkins 3 for 37 yds
  • Receiving Khalil Wilkins 2 for 62 yds; Adrian Norton 4 for 47 yds

James Madison leaders

  • Passing Camden Coleman 21 of 32, 263 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing George Pettaway 14 for 206 yds, 2 TD; Nick Herman 9 for 46 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Corey Scott 5 for 104 yds, 2 TD; Michael Scott 4 for 43 yds

No rain through the game

55° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Game-day temperatures at Bridgeforth Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4James Madison favoredMarshall favored100%Win chanceJames MadisonRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4James Madison favoredMarshall favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 15:00 left3:51 p.m.
Marshall 0, James Madison 0 · James Madison 89% to win
no rain · 55°
Coleman 4-yd pass to Keller
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Bridgewater airport, 6.7 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Marshall · 3-1

Rated 23rd in our preseason ratings, 55th now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 36-35 vs Gardner-Webb #142 of 668

won by 1 as a 24.5-point favorite

Marshall won 36-35 vs Gardner-Webb. Chance to win started at 96%, low 20%, high better than 99%.

W 30-24 @ Missouri State #97 of 668

won by 6 as a 4-point favorite

Marshall won 30-24 at Missouri State. Chance to win started at 48%, low 47%, high 93%.

W 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee #128 of 668

won by 2 as an 11.5-point favorite

Marshall won 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 84%, low 34%, high better than 99%.

L 0-45 @ Penn StateTop 25 #38 of 668

lost by 45 as a 23.5-point underdog

Marshall lost 0-45 at Penn State. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 4%.

Last 4 games

James Madison · 4-0

Rated 85th in our preseason ratings, 48th now, up 37 spots.

4 straight wins, including a 13-point win over San Diego State as a 3-point underdog.

W 46-20 @ Old Dominion #90 of 668

won by 26 as a 7-point favorite

James Madison won 46-20 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 64%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

W 26-13 @ San Diego State #54 of 668

won by 13 as a 3-point underdog

James Madison won 26-13 at San Diego State. Chance to win started at 35%, low 35%, high 99%.

W 87-3 vs Wagner #248 of 668

won by 84 as a 46.5-point favorite

James Madison won 87-3 vs Wagner. Never in doubt.

W 20-13 vs Liberty #87 of 668

won by 7 as a 6-point favorite

James Madison won 20-13 vs Liberty. Chance to win started at 74%, low 67%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

James Madison

Wk 1: W 20-13 vs Liberty▲7LibertyWk 2: W 87-3 vs Wagner▲84WagnerWk 3: W 26-13 at San Diego State▲13S. Diego St.Wk 4: W 46-20 at Old Dominion▲26Old Dominion
  • Wk 1Wvs Liberty20-13
  • Wk 2Wvs Wagner87-3
  • Wk 3Wat San Diego State26-13
  • Wk 4Wat Old Dominion46-20

Marshall

Wk 1: L 0-45 at Penn State▼45Penn StateWk 2: W 28-26 vs Middle Tennessee▲2M. TennesseeWk 3: W 30-24 at Missouri State▲6Missouri St.Wk 4: W 36-35 vs Gardner-Webb▲1Gardner-Webb
  • Wk 1Lat Penn State0-45
  • Wk 2Wvs Middle Tennessee28-26
  • Wk 3Wat Missouri State30-24
  • Wk 4Wvs Gardner-Webb36-35

Power rating by week

James Madison is rated 1.0 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

103-3Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4James MadisonMarshall

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: James Madison’s EPA/play against Marshall, 81 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. James Madison’s EPA/play against Marshall’s defense

    81 pointsweakerstronger50th

    James Madison offense, 89th percentile · Marshall defense, 8th

  2. James Madison’s passing EPA against Marshall’s defense

    79 pointsweakerstronger50th

    James Madison offense, 85th percentile · Marshall defense, 6th

  3. James Madison’s explosive plays against Marshall’s defense

    38 pointsweakerstronger50th

    James Madison offense, 55th percentile · Marshall defense, 17th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MarshallJames Madison
EPA/play, offense
Marshall · 42James Madison · 89
EPA/play, defense
Marshall · 8James Madison · 84
Success rate, offense
Marshall · 58James Madison · 76
Success rate, defense
Marshall · 19James Madison · 76
Explosive-play rate, offense
Marshall · 21James Madison · 55
Explosive-play rate, defense
Marshall · 17James Madison · 36
Rush EPA, offense
Marshall · 35James Madison · 91
Rush EPA, defense
Marshall · 16James Madison ·…
Pass EPA, offense
Marshall · 46James Madison ·…
Pass EPA, defense
Marshall · 6James Madison · 74

The series

The series is tied 2-2

4 meetings since 2022 · James Madison won the last meeting

  • 2025James Madison 35-23James Madison won 35-23 at Marshall. Chance to win started at 77%, low 71%, high better than 99%.
  • 2024Marshall 35-33
  • 2023James Madison 20-9James Madison won 20-9 at Marshall. Chance to win started at 59%, low 50%, high 98%.
  • 2022Marshall 26-12James Madison lost 12-26 vs Marshall. Chance to win started at 73%, low 1%, high 93%.

Each line is James Madison’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Marshall fans are in a better mood than James Madison fans (85th vs 52nd among FBS fanbases), even with James Madison favored.

50-50Model 80% · Line 88%James Madison fans · 52ndMarshall fans · 85thMarshallJames Madison

James Madison favored by 14.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

James Madison by 14.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward James Madison.

opened −13.5now −14.5

Spread: −13.5 → −14.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Cool and dry. Feels like 56° at kickoff.

Marshall at James Madison · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Bridgeforth Stadium, Harrisonburg

  • 56°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 9 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's nine kickoff times. At Bridgeforth Stadium that day, a 11 am kickoff would have scored 97, against 100 at 3:30 pm.

  • 11 am: 97, Comfortable
  • noon: 98, Comfortable
  • 12:45 pm: 98, Comfortable
  • 2 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 3:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
  • 4:15 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 6 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 8 pm: 98, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

James Madison is worth +6.4 points (±4.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 88th percentile.

88% at home, 66% on the road against FBS opponents (22-3 home, 21-11 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.9 at home vs. away over 58 games — inside the ±8.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 192 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Sun Belt standings