NC State beats App State 41-31
NC State beat App State 41-31. Share this game
We had NC State favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
Not going to lie, they robbed App State
How it swung
The turning point: Singleton 9-yd TD pass to Barber, ties it 31-31 (Q4, 9:41). NC State went from 88% to 73% to win. Fans right then: “App State fans are popping louder than NC State fans right now in our own stadium. Props to App State. Y'all show out.” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave NC State a 71% chance, and the closing betting line (NC State was a 12.5-point favorite) put it at 84%.
Favored the whole way: NC State never fell below 73%.
App State never had better than a 27% chance.
NC State 41-31 App State
NC State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.App State 31-41 NC StateApp State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:41Singleton 9-yd TD pass to Barber, ties it 31-31NC State 88% → 73% (−15)
- 2Q4 5:08Scott 16-yd TD run, NC State goes ahead 38-31NC State 77% → 92% (+15)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:41Singleton 9-yd TD pass to Barber, ties it 31-31App State 12% → 27% (+15)
- 2Q4 5:08Scott 16-yd TD run, NC State goes ahead 38-31App State 23% → 8% (−15)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 11:35Fans argue officials robbed App State by ruling Bailey down instead of a fumbleQuoted at the top of the page.
App state got robbed on that one
r/CFB game thread - Q4 13:44NC State fans mock Bailey after Clark intercepts his pass
CJ "Choke Job" Bailey strikes again
r/CFB game thread - Q4 11:28App State fans outshout NC State crowd as Singleton scores touchdown
App State fans are popping louder than NC State fans right now in our own stadium. Props to App State. Y'all show out.
r/CFB game threadNC State Is cursed. They will lose This game
r/CFB game thread - Q4 3:59NC State fans mock Dave Doeren for hoarding timeouts with 3:59 left
How do we still have 3 timeouts this deep into the 4th, Dave must have fallen asleep an hour ago
r/CFB game threadStill kill (metaphorically, I guess) Dave
r/CFB game thread - Q4 0:45
Can't wait for Dave to be beating his chest in the post game talking about how this is a huge win this team
r/CFB game threadI just wanna know what that ref couldve possibly argued back about the no offsides call
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (NC State -12.5), at 86% for NC State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show NC State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 0:05Scott 9-yd TD runNC State leads 14-0Q1, 0:05 · NC State 14, App State 0▲2%NC State’s chance to win, 94% to 96%▲2%NC State’s chance to win, 94% to 96%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 8:34Bailey 10-yd TD pass to LocklearNC State leads 21-0Q2, 8:34 · NC State 21, App State 0▲2%NC State’s chance to win, 97% to 99%▲2%NC State’s chance to win, 97% to 99%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 6:07Singleton 3-yd TD runcuts it to 21-7Q2, 6:07 · NC State 21, App State 7▼2%NC State’s chance to win, 98% to 96%▼2%NC State’s chance to win, 98% to 96%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 10:38CJ Bailey pass to J. Trader for 20 yds for a 1ST down, J. Trader fumbledforced by A. MitchellQ3, 10:38 · NC State 28, App State 1728-17score after the play28-17score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 13:44Bailey intercepted by Clark at the NCSU44Q4, 13:44 · NC State 31, App State 17▼2%NC State’s chance to win, 98% to 96%▼2%NC State’s chance to win, 98% to 96%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 9:41Singleton 9-yd TD pass to Barberties it 31-31Q4, 9:41 · NC State 31, App State 31▼15%NC State’s chance to win, 88% to 73%▼15%NC State’s chance to win, 88% to 73%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
NC State scored on 7 of its 12 drives; App State on 5 of its 13.
NC State’s drives are teal, App State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From App State’s side
App State’s best moment: Singleton 9-yd TD pass to Barber, ties it 31-31 (Q4 9:41). It lifted App State’s win chance by 15 points.
“We score. I’m not excited. This is what they’ve done to me.”
When fans got loud
Busy
It was the fourth quarter that had fans talking the most.
The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.
Box score
NC State 41, App State 31
App State covered +12.5 by 2.5. The total, 72, went over 56.5.
| Team totals | App State | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 379 | 459 |
| Passing | 26 of 39, 317 yds | 24 of 33, 253 yds |
| Rushing | 22 for 62 yds | 46 for 206 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 26 |
| Third down | 5 of 14 | 11 of 17 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 3 for 27 yds | 7 for 75 yds |
| Time of possession | 23:37 | 36:23 |
App State leaders
- Passing Malachi Singleton 26 of 38, 317 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Jaquari Lewis 8 for 32 yds, 1 TD; Ja'Quez Cross 2 for 13 yds
- Receiving Sam Pickett III 5 for 97 yds, 1 TD; Nate Branch 9 for 87 yds
NC State leaders
- Passing CJ Bailey 24 of 33, 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Jayden Scott 25 for 148 yds, 2 TD; Davion Gause 13 for 49 yds
- Receiving Keenan Jackson 4 for 64 yds, 1 TD; Preston Douglas 5 for 46 yds
No rain through the game
71° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 71°, with about 7 in 10 games between 61° and 78°.
September game-day temperatures at Carter-Finley Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Raleigh / Durham airport, 7.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
App State · 3-0
Rated 98th in our preseason ratings, 93rd now.
Three straight wins, including a 3-point win over East Carolina as a 6.5-point underdog.
Last three games
NC State · 1-2
Rated 44th in our preseason ratings, 37th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 31-35 @ Vanderbilt #42 of 668
lost by 4 as a 3-point underdog
Week by week
NC State
- Wk 1Lat Virginia8-34
- Wk 2Wvs Richmond73-0
- Wk 3Lat Vanderbilt31-35
App State
- Wk 1Wvs Maine55-3
- Wk 2Wat East Carolina27-24
- Wk 3Wvs Charlotte26-21
Power rating by week
NC State is rated 5.8 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: NC State’s explosive plays against App State, 61 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
NC State’s explosive plays against App State’s defense
NC State offense, 23rd percentile · App State defense, 84th
App State’s passing EPA against NC State’s defense
App State offense, 66th percentile · NC State defense, 8th
App State’s EPA/play against NC State’s defense
App State offense, 44th percentile · NC State defense, 24th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
NC State leads the series 6-0
6 meetings since 1932 · NC State has won the last 6
- 2006NC State 23-10
- 1992NC State 35-10
- 1990NC State 56-0
- 1983NC State 33-7
- 1980NC State 17-14
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
App State fans are in a better mood than NC State fans (91st vs 1st among FBS fanbases), even with NC State favored.
- Model · 71%
- Line · 84%
- NC State fans · 1st
- App State fans · 91st
NC State favored by 12.5 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
NC State by 12.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward App State.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −14 → −12.5 · Total: 55.5 → 56.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 65° at kickoff.
App State at NC State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh
- 65°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Carter-Finley Stadium that day, a 2 pm kickoff would have scored 86, against 100 at 7 pm.
- noon: 93, Comfortable
- 12:45 pm: 90, Comfortable
- 2 pm: 86, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 4 pm: 89, Mixed
- 5 pm: 96, Comfortable
- 6 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
NC State is worth +6.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 84th percentile.
75% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (39-13 home, 17-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.6 at home vs. away over 100 games — outside the ±5.3 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 168 miles to get here.