No. 22 Boise State beats Utah State 37-18
Team pages: Utah State · Boise State
No. 22 Boise State beat Utah State 37-18. Share this game
We had Boise State favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
So Nate Potter just had no interest in doing any of this in the third quarter
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Boise State an 83% chance, and the closing betting line (Boise State was a 19.5-point favorite) put it at 94%.
Favored the whole way: Boise State never fell below 89%.
Utah State never had better than an 11% chance.
Boise State · Q2 1:53Boise State 37-18 Utah State
Boise State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Utah State 18-37 Boise StateUtah State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 10:17Madsen throws 63-yard pass to Jones, sparking Boise State touchdown drive
Madsen is the most perplexing quarterback ever
r/CFB game threadWe’d better back up the Brinks truck for Jones
r/CFB game thread - Q2 7:33Boise State fans blame themselves for jinxing the shutout after Jacobs' 64-yard run
I blame each and every one of you talking about a shutout while it’s still the first half
r/CFB game threadHow in the world did smith catch him
r/CFB game thread - Q4 11:33Boise State fans fear injuries to Riley and Jones after consecutive plays
Cmon. Not Jones AND Riley. This is the drive from hell.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 8:46Quoted at the top of the page.
I see we’re back to getting every teams best game. It’s been a bit but it’s feels like that 2 point attempt was a sign that everyone sees us back on top as their biggest game on…
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Boise State -19.5), at 91% for Boise State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Boise State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 13:07Brosterhous sacked for a 1-yd lossQ1, 13:07 · Boise State 0, Utah State 00-0score after the play0-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q1, 8:17Riley 5-yd TD runBoise State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 8:17 · Boise State 7, Utah State 07-0score after the play7-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q1, 0:19Madsen 11-yd TD pass to WagnerBoise State leads 14-0Q1, 0:19 · Boise State 14, Utah State 0▲3%Boise State’s chance to win, 96% to 99%▲3%Boise State’s chance to win, 96% to 99%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 5:52Brosterhous 1-yd TD pass to Jacobscuts it to 21-7Q2, 5:52 · Boise State 21, Utah State 7▼2%Boise State’s chance to win, 100% to 98%▼2%Boise State’s chance to win, 100% to 98%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 3:09Madsen sacked for a 6-yd lossQ2, 3:09 · Boise State 21, Utah State 721-7score after the play21-7score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 1:53Hillstead intercepted by Ripp at the USU21 and returned for a TDBoise State leads 28-7Q2, 1:53 · Boise State 28, Utah State 7▲2%Boise State’s chance to win, 98% to 100%▲2%Boise State’s chance to win, 98% to 100%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 4:14Brosterhous sacked for a 5-yd lossQ3, 4:14 · Boise State 31, Utah State 1031-10score after the play31-10score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 3:34Brosterhous sacked for a 9-yd lossQ3, 3:34 · Boise State 31, Utah State 1031-10score after the play31-10score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 13:44Hillstead sacked for a 4-yd lossQ4, 13:44 · Boise State 31, Utah State 1031-10score after the play31-10score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 10:13Madsen 4-yd pass to JonesfumbledQ4, 10:13 · Boise State 31, Utah State 1031-10score after the play31-10score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 9:32Brosterhous 31-yd TD pass to Woodcuts it to 31-18Q4, 9:32 · Boise State 31, Utah State 1831-18score after the play31-18score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 8:27Madsen 11-yd TD pass to FordBoise State leads 37-18Q4, 8:27 · Boise State 37, Utah State 18▼2%Boise State’s chance to win, 100% to 98%▼2%Boise State’s chance to win, 100% to 98%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
Every drive
Boise State scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Utah State on 3 of its 11.
Boise State’s drives are teal, Utah State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“We really just used the same play 3 times”
How fans reacted
Steady
It was the fourth quarter that had fans talking the most.
The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
Boise State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 22% to 23%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Boise State 37, Utah State 18
Utah State covered +19.5 by 0.5. The total, 55, went over 50.5.
| Team totals | Utah State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 345 | 429 |
| Passing | 14 of 25, 176 yds | 17 of 21, 244 yds |
| Rushing | 33 for 169 yds | 41 for 185 yds |
| First downs | 15 | 20 |
| Third down | 4 of 13 | 8 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 5 for 60 yds | 2 for 25 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:46 | 32:14 |
Utah State leaders
- Passing Grady Brosterhous 12 of 18, 129 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Javen Jacobs 10 for 139 yds; McCae Hillstead 6 for 10 yds
- Receiving Eli Wood 7 for 102 yds, 1 TD; Noah White 1 for 27 yds
Boise State leaders
- Passing Maddux Madsen 17 of 21, 244 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Dylan Riley 18 for 93 yds, 2 TD; Maddux Madsen 7 for 42 yds
- Receiving Rasean Jones 5 for 88 yds; Ben Ford 3 for 49 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
84° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 73 other games played at Albertsons Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 59°, with about 7 in 10 games between 50° and 69°.
October game-day temperatures at Albertsons Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Boise Municipal airport, 3.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Utah State · 1-3
Rated 52nd in our preseason ratings, 62nd now.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
Boise State · 3-1
Rated 37th in our preseason ratings, 22nd now, up 15 spots.
3-1 in its last 4, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Week by week
Boise State
- Wk 1Lat Oregon27-34
- Wk 2Wvs Memphis38-20
- Wk 3Wvs South Dakota38-24
- Wk 4Wat Western Michigan32-7
Utah State
- Wk 1Lvs Idaho State17-29
- Wk 2Lat Washington14-16
- Wk 3Lat Utah0-33
- Wk 4Wvs Troy21-10
Power rating by week
Boise State is rated 5.5 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Utah State’s explosive plays against Boise State, 95 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Utah State’s explosive plays against Boise State’s defense
Utah State offense, 95th percentile · Boise State defense, 0th
Utah State’s success rate against Boise State’s defense
Utah State offense, 3rd percentile · Boise State defense, 73rd
Utah State’s passing EPA against Boise State’s defense
Utah State offense, 4th percentile · Boise State defense, 60th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Boise State leads the series 25-5
30 meetings since 1975 · Boise State has won the last 10
- 2025Boise State 25-24
- 2024Boise State 62-30
- 2023Boise State 45-10
- 2022Boise State 42-23
- 2021Boise State 27-3
Each line is Boise State’s chance to win through that meeting. Boise State is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Utah State fans are in a better mood than Boise State fans (87th vs 61st among FBS fanbases), even with Boise State favored.
- Model · 83%
- Line · 94%
- Boise State fans · 61st
- Utah State fans · 87th
Boise State favored by 19.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Boise State by 19.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Utah State.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −20.5 → −19.5 · Total: 49.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 78° at kickoff.
Utah State at Boise State · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Albertsons Stadium, Boise
- 78°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 96weather score, Comfortable
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 4 kickoff times
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's four kickoff times. At Albertsons Stadium that day, a 10 am kickoff would have scored 98, against 96 at 5:30 pm.
- 10 am: 98, Comfortable
- 2 pm: 77, Mixed
- 4 pm: 80, Mixed
- 5:30 pm: 96, Comfortable (this game)
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Boise State is worth +3.9 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 45th percentile.
79% at home, 69% on the road against FBS opponents (37-10 home, 34-15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±5.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 257 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Boise State 33, Utah State 24Nov 24, 2018
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Boise State4th0-0
- Utah State2nd0-0