North Carolina 24-20 Duke (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: North Carolina · Duke

North Carolina4-224

Duke4-220Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, N.C. · Crowd 35,018

North Carolina beat Duke 24-20.

We had Duke favored. North Carolina won.

Next: North Carolina vs Syracuse, Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · North Carolina favored by 7.5

Next: Duke at Virginia, Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET · Duke underdog by 1.5

Top comment in the game thread

You can't make up the incompetence of UNC football

Q4 8:22 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: McCann-Gibbs run for a 16-yd loss, turnover on downs (Q4, 7:43). North Carolina went from 70% to 41% to win. Fans right then: “You can't make up the incompetence of UNC football” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Carolina a 35% chance, and the closing betting line (North Carolina was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.

Down to 24% in the fourth quarter, North Carolina came back to win.

Up to 76% in the fourth quarter, then Duke lost it.

20 unanswered

Duke · Q4 4:39

FinalNorth Carolina 24-20 DukeNorth Carolina wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The five plays that swung it

1Q1 8:42Special teamsPunt blockedNorth Carolina 34% → 57% (+23)
2Q2 9:364th and 1Campbell 0-yd run, turnover on downsNorth Carolina 61% → 83% (+22)
3Q4 7:434th and 5McCann-Gibbs run for a 16-yd loss, turnover on downsNorth Carolina 70% → 41% (−29)
4Q4 1:53McGill 24-yd TD run, North Carolina goes ahead 24-20North Carolina 32% → 54% (+22)
5Q4 0:28PenaltyEget incomplete to UNCNorth Carolina 58% → 79% (+21)

The five plays that swung it

1Q1 8:42Special teamsPunt blockedDuke 66% → 43% (−23)
2Q2 9:364th and 1Campbell 0-yd run, turnover on downsDuke 39% → 17% (−22)
3Q4 7:434th and 5McCann-Gibbs run for a 16-yd loss, turnover on downsDuke 30% → 59% (+29)
4Q4 1:53McGill 24-yd TD run, North Carolina goes ahead 24-20Duke 68% → 46% (−22)
5Q4 0:28PenaltyEget incomplete to UNCDuke 42% → 21% (−21)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 6:23Duke punts, prompting fans to mock the coaching staff's reliance on trick playsThe ole fake fake puntr/CFB game thread
Q3 4:09Fans argue officials should have stopped forward progress on Thurman catchThurman is ridiculous lol.r/CFB game thread
Q4 8:22North Carolina fans decry Edwards' incomplete pass and offensive incompetenceQuoted at the top of the page.

North Carolina’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Duke -3), at 38% for North Carolina (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Duke or North Carolina flair (195 and 205); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show North Carolina’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

North Carolina scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Duke on 3 of its 10.

North Carolina’s drives are teal, Duke’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Duke’s side

Duke’s best moment: McCann-Gibbs run for a 16-yd loss, turnover on downs (Q4 7:43). It lifted Duke’s win chance by 29 points.

How Duke fans took it: “Belichick out coached manny down the stretch once Duke took the lead” r/CFB game thread

“We would be pretty good if we had a quarterback”

A North Carolina fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were loudest in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

The winner fell to 13%.

What it cost

Duke’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

North Carolina · won1% → 1%

Duke · lost1% → ▼0%

Win the conference

North Carolina · won1% → 1%

Duke · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Duke plays at Virginia on Fri Oct 23 with a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

North Carolina 24, Duke 20

North Carolina covered +3 by 7. The total, 44, stayed under 46.5.

Team totals	North Carolina	Duke
Total yards	326	373
Passing	15 of 25, 191 yds	24 of 41, 249 yds
Rushing	39 for 135 yds	30 for 124 yds
First downs	22	19
Third down	4 of 12	8 of 18
Fourth down	2 of 3	2 of 3
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	6 for 65 yds	8 for 67 yds
Time of possession	28:37	31:23

North Carolina leaders

Passing Billy Edwards 15 of 25, 191 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Jaylen McGill 12 for 75 yds, 1 TD; Demon June 13 for 49 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jordan Shipp 7 for 75 yds, 1 TD; Jelani Thurman 4 for 52 yds

Duke leaders

Passing Walker Eget 24 of 38, 249 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Nate Sheppard 20 for 77 yds; CJ Campbell 9 for 61 yds
Receiving Nate Sheppard 11 for 98 yds, 1 TD; Jared Richardson 3 for 55 yds

No rain through the game

55° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 63°, with about 7 in 10 games between 53° and 75°.

October game-day temperatures at Wallace Wade Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 8:26 left6:36 p.m.

North Carolina 17, Duke 13 · Duke 26% to win

no rain · 57°

Edwards incomplete to Kekahuna

Measured at Durham - Duke North Heliport airport, 0.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

This is Victory Bell — see the full head-to-head history →

Recent games

Last three games

North Carolina · 3-2

Rated 136th in our preseason ratings, 67th now, up 69 spots.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 4-point win over Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point underdog.

W 21-17 @ PittsburghTop 25 #40 of 668

won by 4 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 26-37 vs Notre DameTop 25 #4 of 668

lost by 11 as a 21-point underdog

L 20-28 @ ClemsonTop 25 #23 of 668

lost by 8 as a 3-point underdog

W 35-3 vs East Tennessee State #160 of 668

won by 32 as a 36.5-point favorite

W 15-10 @ TCU #53 of 668

won by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog

Last three games

Duke · 4-1

Rated 67th in our preseason ratings, 52nd now, up 15 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 25-28 @ Georgia Tech #99 of 668

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 62-7 vs William & Mary #221 of 668

won by 55 as a 43.5-point favorite

W 35-7 vs Stanford #106 of 668

won by 28 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 31-27 @ Illinois #69 of 668

won by 4 as a 6-point underdog

W 17-3 vs Tulane #74 of 668

won by 14 as a 9.5-point favorite

Week by week

Duke

Wk 1Wvs Tulane17-3
Wk 2Wat Illinois31-27
Wk 3Wvs Stanford35-7
Wk 4Wvs William & Mary62-7
Wk 6Lat Georgia Tech25-28

North Carolina

Wk 1Wat TCU15-10
Wk 2Wvs East Tennessee State35-3
Wk 3Lat Clemson20-28
Wk 5Lvs Notre Dame26-37
Wk 6Wat Pittsburgh21-17

Power rating by week

Duke is rated 1.9 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: North Carolina’s explosive plays against Duke, 56 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

North Carolina’s explosive plays against Duke’s defense
North Carolina offense, 20th percentile · Duke defense, 76th
North Carolina’s rushing EPA against Duke’s defense
North Carolina offense, 34th percentile · Duke defense, 89th
Duke’s EPA/play against North Carolina’s defense
Duke offense, 87th percentile · North Carolina defense, 66th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

North CarolinaDuke

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

North Carolina leads the series 63-38-4

105 meetings since 1922 · Duke has won the last 2

2025Duke 32-25
2024Duke 21-20
2023North Carolina 47-45
2022North Carolina 38-35
2021North Carolina 38-7

Each line is Duke’s chance to win through that meeting. Duke is 2-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

North Carolina fans are in a better mood than Duke fans (52nd vs 9th among FBS fanbases), even with Duke favored.

Duke favored by 3 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

Duke by 3: the game against the usual path

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward North Carolina.

The total fell 8 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Duke has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.3 points (±4.3), home against road — 3rd percentile of FBS.

53% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (24-21 home, 19-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.3 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 9 miles to get here.

The story going in

DOJ drops Duke lawsuitsOct 12, 2026

Last meeting in our History pages

North Carolina 38, Duke 35Oct 15, 2022

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2016.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Duke11th1-1
North Carolina10th1-1

Full ACC standings

North Carolina beats Duke 24-20