Alcorn State routs Mississippi Valley State 52-17

Team pages: Alcorn State · Mississippi Valley State

Alcorn State5-452
Mississippi Valley State3-617Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Rice-Totten Field, Itta Bena, Miss. · Crowd 5,600SWAC TV

Alcorn State routed Mississippi Valley State 52-17.

We had Alcorn State favored. It won.

Next: Alcorn State vs Florida A&M, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

Next: Mississippi Valley State at Jackson State, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alcorn State an 86% chance, and the closing betting line (Alcorn State was a 11.5-point favorite) put it at 82%.

FinalAlcorn State 52-17 Mississippi Valley StateAlcorn State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Alcorn StateWon52-1712−12+12Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Alcorn StateWon52-1712Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Alcorn StateLowest 0%Lost17-5212+12−12Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Alcorn StateLowest 0%Lost17-5212Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 10:55Brown 40-yd TD pass to King, Mississippi Valley State goes ahead 7-0Alcorn State 67% → 55% (−12)
  2. 2Q2 14:40Wilson 78-yd TD pass to Robertson, Alcorn State leads 21-10Alcorn State 81% → 93% (+12)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 10:55Brown 40-yd TD pass to King, Mississippi Valley State goes ahead 7-0Mississippi Valley State 33% → 45% (+12)
  2. 2Q2 14:40Wilson 78-yd TD pass to Robertson, Alcorn State leads 21-10Mississippi Valley State 19% → 7% (−12)
Alcorn State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Alcorn State -11.5), at 73% for Alcorn State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Alcorn State scored on 8 of its 11 drives; Mississippi Valley State on 3 of its 10.

Alcorn State’s drives are teal, Mississippi Valley State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Mississippi Valley State: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownMississippi Valley State: Punt, from 76 yards out to 81PuntAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownMississippi Valley State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 23Field goalAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Mississippi Valley State: Punt, from 62 yards out to 39PuntAlcorn State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 74PuntMississippi Valley State: Punt, from 55 yards out to 62PuntAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 48 yards out to 0TouchdownMississippi Valley State: Turned over on downs, from 77 yards out to 73DownsAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 27 yards out to 0TouchdownMississippi Valley State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntAlcorn State: Missed field goal, from 70 yards out to 27Missed FGQ3Alcorn State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownMississippi Valley State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 19Missed FGAlcorn State: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 6Field goalMississippi Valley State: Punt, from 73 yards out to 75PuntAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownMississippi Valley State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Alcorn State: End of game, from 75 yards out to 10End of game

From Mississippi Valley State’s side

Mississippi Valley State’s best moment: Brown 40-yd TD pass to King, Mississippi Valley State goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 10:55). It lifted Mississippi Valley State’s win chance by 12 points.

Box score

Alcorn State 52, Mississippi Valley State 17

Alcorn State covered −11.5 by 23.5. The total, 69, went over 60.5.

Alcorn State leaders

  • Passing Jaylon Tolbert 23 of 29, 320 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Fred Robertson 9 for 81 yds, 2 TD; Ernest Temple 4 for 79 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Armon Wright 8 for 126 yds, 1 TD; Fred Robertson 2 for 87 yds, 1 TD

Mississippi Valley State leaders

  • Passing Josh Brown 14 of 27, 173 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Josh Brown 18 for 39 yds; Norman Taylor 5 for 29 yds
  • Receiving Jaylen King 4 for 58 yds, 1 TD; Mekhi Penix 2 for 40 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Alcorn State · 4-4

Rated 167th in our preseason ratings, 192nd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 38-41 @ Prairie View A&M No. 186 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

Alcorn State lost 38-41 at Prairie View A&M. Chance to win started at 25%, low 5%, high 63%.

W 63-7 vs Arkansas Baptist

Alcorn State won 63-7 vs Arkansas Baptist. Chance to win started at 57%, low 52%, high better than 99%.

L 59-63 @ Grambling No. 205 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 6-point underdog

Alcorn State lost 59-63 at Grambling. Chance to win started at 25%, low under 1%, high better than 99%.

W 43-40 vs Texas Southern No. 218 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite

Alcorn State won 43-40 vs Texas Southern. Chance to win started at 68%, low 30%, high better than 99%.

L 20-38 @ North Alabama No. 172 of 668 teams

lost by 18 as a 13.5-point underdog

Alcorn State lost 20-38 at North Alabama. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 18%.

W 53-51 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff No. 233 of 668 teams

won by 2 as an 8.5-point favorite

L 3-49 @ Southern Miss No. 57 of 668 teams

lost by 46 as a 20.5-point underdog

Alcorn State lost 3-49 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 12%.

W 56-7 vs Miles No. 307 of 668 teams

Last three games

Mississippi Valley State · 3-5

Rated 253rd in our preseason ratings, 265th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Texas Southern as a 14-point underdog.

L 14-34 vs Bethune-Cookman No. 192 of 668 teams

lost by 20 as a 6.5-point underdog

Mississippi Valley State lost 14-34 vs Bethune-Cookman. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 70%.

W 38-34 @ Texas Southern No. 246 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 14-point underdog

Mississippi Valley State won 38-34 at Texas Southern. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high better than 99%.

W 28-27 vs Prairie View A&M No. 154 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 29.5-point underdog

Mississippi Valley State won 28-27 vs Prairie View A&M. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high better than 99%.

L 15-41 @ Alabama State No. 144 of 668 teams

lost by 26 as a 34.5-point underdog

L 6-21 vs Delta State No. 314 of 668 teams

Mississippi Valley State lost 6-21 vs Delta State. Chance to win started at 62%, low under 1%, high 69%.

W 31-20 vs Lincoln (PA) No. 410 of 668 teams

Mississippi Valley State won 31-20 vs Lincoln (PA). Chance to win started at 66%, low 44%, high better than 99%.

L 0-52 @ Sacramento State No. 130 of 668 teams

lost by 52 as a 38.5-point underdog

Mississippi Valley State lost 0-52 at Sacramento State. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 10-44 @ Nicholls No. 158 of 668 teams

lost by 34 as a 28.5-point underdog

Week by week

Mississippi Valley State

Wk 3: L 6-21 vs Delta State▼15Delta St.Wk 4: L 15-41 at Alabama State▼26Alabama…Wk 5: W 28-27 vs Prairie View A&M▲1Prairie…Wk 6: W 38-34 at Texas Southern▲4T. South…Wk 7: L 14-34 vs Bethune-Cookman▼20Bethune-…
  • Wk 3Lvs Delta State6-21
  • Wk 4Lat Alabama State15-41
  • Wk 5Wvs Prairie View A&M28-27
  • Wk 6Wat Texas Southern38-34
  • Wk 7Lvs Bethune-Cookman14-34

Alcorn State

Wk 3: L 20-38 at North Alabama▼18N. Alaba…Wk 4: W 43-40 vs Texas Southern▲3T. South…Wk 5: L 59-63 at Grambling▼4GramblingWk 6: W 63-7 vs Arkansas Baptist▲56A. Bapti…Wk 7: L 38-41 at Prairie View A&M▼3Prairie…
  • Wk 3Lat North Alabama20-38
  • Wk 4Wvs Texas Southern43-40
  • Wk 5Lat Grambling59-63
  • Wk 6Wvs Arkansas Baptist63-7
  • Wk 7Lat Prairie View A&M38-41

Power rating by week

Alcorn State is rated 7.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-6-12-17Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Mississippi Valley StateAlcorn State

The series

Alcorn State leads the series 17-2

19 meetings since 1977 · Alcorn State has won the last 12

Mississippi Valley State wonAlcorn State won1977: Mississippi Valley State by 22007: Alcorn State by 32008: Alcorn State by 142009: Alcorn State by 222010: Alcorn State by 182011: Alcorn State by 252012: Mississippi Valley State by 242013: Alcorn State by 72014: Alcorn State by 432015: Alcorn State by 412016: Alcorn State by 542017: Alcorn State by 592018: Alcorn State by 362019: Alcorn State by 262021: Alcorn State by 122022: Alcorn State by 232023: Alcorn State by 212024: Alcorn State by 212025: Alcorn State by 2219772025
  • 2025Alcorn State 32-10
  • 2024Alcorn State 42-21
  • 2023Alcorn State 24-3
  • 2022Alcorn State 30-7
  • 2021Alcorn State 24-12

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Mississippi Valley State’s chances here.

50-50Model 14% · Line 18%Alcorn StateMississippi Valley State

Alcorn State favored by 11.5 · Total 60.5

How games like this usually go

Alcorn State by 11.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.