Troy beats Southern Miss 55-34
Team pages: Southern Miss · Troy
Troy beat Southern Miss 55-34. Share this game
Top comment in the game thread
tuesday night football. its like a fun little treat
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Troy a 56% chance, and the closing betting line (Troy was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.
Favored the whole way: Troy never fell below 77%.
Southern Miss never had better than a 22% chance.
Southern Miss · Q3 14:43
Troy 55-34 Southern MissTroy wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Southern Miss 34-55 TroySouthern Miss lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 12:28Troy scores first touchdown on Tuesday night footballQuoted at the top of the page.
Loooooove me some Tuesday night CFB
r/CFB game thread - Q1 3:51Troy fans celebrate as Goose Crowder runs for a touchdown
Goose you beautiful bastard
r/CFB game threadJust in. Goose was rebuilt as a running machine instead of a laser passer. Glad we’ve found that out now.
r/CFB game thread - Q1 1:53A player nicknamed Goose celebrated with high fives.
The goose is loose!
r/CFB game thread - Q1 1:17A referee was knocked down during a play.
Love seeing a ref getting run over
r/CFB game thread - Q2 4:51Lyddy throws interception to Henderson after DPI flag on Welch
DB celebrating as a flag is thrown for DPI, never gets old
r/CFB game thread - Q3 1:11Southern Miss fans predict a comeback as Troy leads 41-20 in the third quarter
Here we go. So Miss gonna shock the world of Tuesday Night Football
r/CFB game thread - Q4 13:39Something unusual happened on the sideline.
Damn what happened on the sideline lol
r/CFB game thread - Q4 12:07Southern Miss fumbles after sack, ending comeback hopes as Troy recovers
Nooo my sickos hopes :(
r/CFB game thread - Q4 4:56Fans agree Lyddy's deep pass to Saunders is a catch
Nice catch in what won't make one difference
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Troy -9.5), at 78% for Troy (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Troy’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 10:11Lovett 15-yd TD runTroy goes ahead 7-0Q1, 10:11 · Troy 7, Southern Miss 0▲6%Troy’s chance to win, 85% to 91%▲6%Troy’s chance to win, 85% to 91%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 1:53Crowder 9-yd TD runTroy leads 17-0Q1, 1:53 · Troy 17, Southern Miss 0▲4%Troy’s chance to win, 95% to 99%▲4%Troy’s chance to win, 95% to 99%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 12:09Lyddy 2-yd TD pass to Sanderscuts it to 17-7Q2, 12:09 · Troy 17, Southern Miss 7▼4%Troy’s chance to win, 97% to 93%▼4%Troy’s chance to win, 97% to 93%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 6:20Crowder 1-yd TD runTroy leads 24-7Q2, 6:20 · Troy 24, Southern Miss 7▲5%Troy’s chance to win, 94% to 99%▲5%Troy’s chance to win, 94% to 99%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 4:47Lyddy intercepted by Henderson at the Troy 25Q2, 4:47 · Troy 24, Southern Miss 7▲2%Troy’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▲2%Troy’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:52Crowder sacked for a 7-yd lossQ2, 0:52 · Troy 24, Southern Miss 724-7score after the play24-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:21Crowder 5-yd TD pass to HamptonTroy leads 31-7Q2, 0:21 · Troy 31, Southern Miss 731-7score after the play31-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 14:43Sanders 75-yd TD pass to Littlecuts it to 31-13Q3, 14:43 · Troy 31, Southern Miss 13▼3%Troy’s chance to win, 100% to 97%▼3%Troy’s chance to win, 100% to 97%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 12:13Crowder 46-yd TD pass to LovettTroy leads 38-13Q3, 12:13 · Troy 38, Southern Miss 1338-13score after the play38-13score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 11:10Singleton intercepted by Strait at the Troy 5Q3, 11:10 · Troy 38, Southern Miss 1338-13score after the play38-13score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 5:25Lyddy 27-yd TD pass to Sanderscuts it to 38-20Q3, 5:25 · Troy 38, Southern Miss 2038-20score after the play38-20score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 1:03Briggs 44-yd TD runcuts it to 41-27Q3, 1:03 · Troy 41, Southern Miss 27▼2%Troy’s chance to win, 98% to 96%▼2%Troy’s chance to win, 98% to 96%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 13:39Crowder sacked for a 7-yd lossturnover on downsQ4, 13:39 · Troy 41, Southern Miss 2741-27score after the play41-27score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 11:19Lyddy sacked for a 7-yd lossfumblesQ4, 11:19 · Troy 41, Southern Miss 2741-27score after the play41-27score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 6:50Merriweather 1-yd TD runTroy leads 48-27Q4, 6:50 · Troy 48, Southern Miss 27▼2%Troy’s chance to win, 100% to 98%▼2%Troy’s chance to win, 100% to 98%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 4:38Wilder 1-yd TD runcuts it to 48-34Q4, 4:38 · Troy 48, Southern Miss 3448-34score after the play48-34score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 1:51Griffin 12-yd TD runTroy leads 55-34Q4, 1:51 · Troy 55, Southern Miss 3455-34score after the play55-34score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 0:13Lyddy sacked for a 7-yd lossQ4, 0:13 · Troy 55, Southern Miss 3455-34score after the play55-34score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Troy scored on 9 of its 11 drives; Southern Miss on 5 of its 12.
Troy’s drives are teal, Southern Miss’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“The Trojans know how to wrap up a man”
How fans reacted
Steady
Fans were loudest early, in the first quarter.
The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
Southern Miss’s chance to win the conference fell from 7% to 4%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 6, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Troy 55, Southern Miss 34
Troy covered −9.5 by 11.5. The total, 89, went over 51.5.
| Team totals | Southern Miss | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 512 | 662 |
| Passing | 25 of 39, 391 yds | 18 of 21, 225 yds |
| Rushing | 27 for 121 yds | 59 for 437 yds |
| First downs | 29 | 33 |
| Third down | 2 of 8 | 8 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Penalties | 3 for 25 yds | 7 for 87 yds |
| Time of possession | 20:38 | 39:22 |
Southern Miss leaders
- Passing Landy Lyddy 24 of 37, 316 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Robert Briggs 2 for 44 yds, 1 TD; Jamarice Wilder 9 for 29 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Kaden Saunders 7 for 138 yds; Mario Sanders II 8 for 102 yds, 2 TD
Troy leaders
- Passing Will Crowder 18 of 21, 225 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Will Crowder 17 for 145 yds, 2 TD; Jordan Lovett 12 for 142 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Jordan Lovett 2 for 53 yds, 1 TD; Noreel White 1 for 37 yds
No rain and calm
73° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 2 mph from the east-northeast, gusts to 7
Game-day temperatures at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Troy Municipal airport, 5.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Southern Miss · 1-3
Rated 57th in our preseason ratings, 90th now.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
Troy · 2-2
Rated 113th in our preseason ratings, 114th now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Troy
- Wk 1Wvs Sam Houston24-21
- Wk 2Wvs Alabama State34-17
- Wk 3Lat Missouri17-27
- Wk 4Lat Utah State10-21
Southern Miss
- Wk 1Wvs Alcorn State49-3
- Wk 2Lat Auburn8-43
- Wk 3Lvs UConn20-48
- Wk 4Lat Tulane21-24
Power rating by week
Southern Miss is rated 2.0 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Troy’s rushing EPA against Southern Miss, 45 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Troy’s rushing EPA against Southern Miss’s defense
Troy offense, 53rd percentile · Southern Miss defense, 8th
Southern Miss’s EPA/play against Troy’s defense
Southern Miss offense, 15th percentile · Troy defense, 43rd
Troy’s explosive plays against Southern Miss’s defense
Troy offense, 63rd percentile · Southern Miss defense, 37th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Troy leads the series 6-3
9 meetings since 1977 · Troy has won the last 5
- 2025Troy 28-18
- 2024Troy 52-20
- 2023Troy 35-17
- 2022Troy 27-10
- 2021Troy 21-9
Each line is Troy’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Troy fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (93rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 56%
- Line · 78%
- Troy fans · 93rd
- Southern Miss fans · 88th
Troy favored by 9.5 · Total 51.5
How games like this usually go
Troy by 9.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Troy.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: −8.5 → −9.5 · Total: 48.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Troy is worth +2.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 26th percentile.
63% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (27-16 home, 25-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.4 at home vs. away over 104 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 202 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Troy7th0-0
- Southern Miss8th0-0