South Carolina 38-19 Florida (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: South Carolina · Florida

South Carolina3-338

No. 16 Florida4-219Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla. · Crowd 90,311

South Carolina beat No. 16 Florida 38-19 as a 10.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 7%.

Winners have been down to 7% or less in about 1 of every 15 games since 2018.

We had Florida favored. South Carolina won.

Next: South Carolina vs Tennessee, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · South Carolina favored by 2.5

Next: Florida beat Texas 27-24, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

This is South Carolina football. Stink all year and get an upset here and there.

Q4 8:07 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Sellers 26-yd TD pass to Murph, South Carolina leads 24-13 (Q3, 8:36). South Carolina went from 46% to 63% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Carolina a 21% chance, and the closing betting line (South Carolina was a 10.5-point underdog) put it at 20%.

FinalSouth Carolina 38-19 FloridaSouth Carolina wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.2 in of rain

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 8:36Sellers 26-yd TD pass to Murph, South Carolina leads 24-13South Carolina 46% → 63% (+17)
2Q3 1:08Sellers 1-yd TD run, South Carolina leads 31-13South Carolina 77% → 91% (+14)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 8:36Sellers 26-yd TD pass to Murph, South Carolina leads 24-13Florida 54% → 37% (−17)
2Q3 1:08Sellers 1-yd TD run, South Carolina leads 31-13Florida 23% → 9% (−14)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 0:12A player made a contested catch for a touchdown.A contested catch for a TD?? Its a miracler/CFB game thread
Q2 0:03Florida misses a field goal as the first half ends with South Carolina leading 17-10We can miss field goals too, SCar!r/CFB game thread
Q3 1:39Sellers runs for a touchdown after review overturns down-by-contact callWent from “I’m terrified of Florida” to “I hope we can score 60” in 2 weeksr/CFB game thread
Q4 9:40Sellers throws touchdown pass to Cyrus, making it 38-13"LaNorris Sellers made them pay" What sweet words to hear againr/CFB game thread
Q4 8:07South Carolina fans mock Florida with gator chomps while Shane Beamer smiles on the sidelineQuoted at the top of the page.Beamer smiling knowing he isn't fired after todayr/CFB game thread

South Carolina’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Florida -10.5), at 17% for South Carolina (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Florida or South Carolina flair (1,062 and 1,025); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.2 in of rain, heaviest in the fourth quarter. Measured at Gainesville Rgnl airport, 5.2 miles away. Full conditions below.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show South Carolina’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

South Carolina scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Florida on 4 of its 12.

South Carolina’s drives are teal, Florida’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Florida’s side

Florida’s best moment: Philo 16-yd pass to Wilson (Q2 0:15). It lifted Florida’s win chance by 11 points.

How Florida fans took it: “Well, that was a good football season. I think I'm done now!” r/CFB game thread

“Gentlemen we've scored a 3rd quarter point”

A South Carolina fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans saved their loudest stretch for the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

South Carolina fans

beamer“Beamer told them they could have a couple of penalties in the fourth quarter as a treat”

lead“Has a team ever blown a lead with no time left on the clock? Will the gamecocks be the first?”

half“Scoring 17 pts and leading at the first half. Were *so* getting blown out”

blow“"Can't blow a lead if you never lead in the first place" -Shane Beamer, probably”

Florida fans

philo“If Buster doesn’t trust philo to push the ball why is he even out there man”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, ball, secondary, run.

The winner fell to 7%.

What it cost

Florida’s chance to make the playoff fell from 41% to 29%.

Make the playoff

South Carolina · won2% → ▲3%

Florida · lost41% → ▼29%

Win the conference

South Carolina · won0% → 0%

Florida · lost3% → ▼1%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

South Carolina plays vs Tennessee on Sat Oct 24 with a 3% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

South Carolina 38, Florida 19

South Carolina covered +10.5 by 29.5. The total, 57, stayed under 59.5.

Team totals	South Carolina	Florida
Total yards	393	387
Passing	23 of 35, 279 yds	27 of 36, 267 yds
Rushing	37 for 114 yds	38 for 120 yds
First downs	22	20
Third down	10 of 16	6 of 13
Fourth down	0 of 0	1 of 2
Turnovers	0	3
Penalties	6 for 53 yds	5 for 30 yds
Time of possession	30:37	29:23

South Carolina leaders

Passing Lanorris Sellers 23 of 35, 279 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Matthew Fuller 10 for 52 yds; Jabree Coleman 7 for 39 yds
Receiving Nyck Harbor 4 for 83 yds, 1 TD; DJ Black 3 for 42 yds

Florida leaders

Passing Aaron Philo 21 of 28, 227 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Jadan Baugh 15 for 59 yds, 1 TD; Aaron Philo 13 for 32 yds
Receiving Bailey Stockton 8 for 127 yds, 1 TD; Dallas Wilson 8 for 74 yds

Rain for part of the game

84° at kickoff · feels like 86° to 105° · 0.2 in of rain · wind 9 mph from the south-southeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 32

A feels-like 105° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

The usual here around this date is 75°, with about 7 in 10 games between 68° and 81°.

In the game thread, fans talked about the rain.

October game-day temperatures at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 12:30 left3:54 p.m.

South Carolina 31, Florida 13 · Florida 4% to win

rain 0.09 in per 10 minutes · wind 12 mph from the south, mostly along the field, gusts to 18 · 82°

Sellers 17-yd pass to Black

Measured at Gainesville Rgnl airport, 5.2 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

South Carolina · 2-3

Rated 16th in our preseason ratings, 40th now, down 24 spots.

Three straight losses.

L 34-35 vs KentuckyTop 25 #55 of 668

lost by 1 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 18-49 @ AlabamaTop 25 #10 of 668

lost by 31 as a 12.5-point underdog

L 34-41 vs Mississippi StateTop 25 #75 of 668

lost by 7 as a 3-point favorite

W 45-9 vs Towson #182 of 668

won by 36 as a 44.5-point favorite

W 57-0 vs Kent State #114 of 668

won by 57 as a 35.5-point favorite

Last three games

Florida · 4-1

Rated 22nd in our preseason ratings, 16th now.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 17-45 @ MissouriTop 25 #28 of 668

lost by 28 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 52-28 vs Ole MissTop 25 #19 of 668

won by 24 as a 4-point favorite

W 44-39 @ Auburn #60 of 668

won by 5 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 52-3 vs Campbell #196 of 668

won by 49 as a 51.5-point favorite

W 66-21 vs Florida Atlantic #106 of 668

won by 45 as a 26.5-point favorite

Week by week

Florida

Wk 1Wvs Florida Atlantic66-21
Wk 2Wvs Campbell52-3
Wk 3Wat Auburn44-39
Wk 4Wvs Ole Miss52-28
Wk 5Lat Missouri17-45

South Carolina

Wk 1Wvs Kent State57-0
Wk 2Wvs Towson45-9
Wk 3Lvs Mississippi State34-41
Wk 4Lat Alabama18-49
Wk 5Lvs Kentucky34-35

Power rating by week

Florida is rated 3.8 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Florida’s passing EPA against South Carolina, 72 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Florida’s passing EPA against South Carolina’s defense
Florida offense, 84th percentile · South Carolina defense, 12th
Florida’s EPA/play against South Carolina’s defense
Florida offense, 82nd percentile · South Carolina defense, 26th
Florida’s explosive plays against South Carolina’s defense
Florida offense, 49th percentile · South Carolina defense, 21st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

South CarolinaFlorida

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Florida leads the series 31-10-3

44 meetings since 1911 · Florida has won the last 2

2023Florida 41-39
2022Florida 38-6
2021South Carolina 40-17
2020Florida 38-24
2019Florida 38-27

Each line is Florida’s chance to win through that meeting. Florida is 3-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Florida fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (24th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Florida favored by 10.5 · Total 59.5

How games like this usually go

Florida by 10.5, on the usual path until Q2 2:33

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward South Carolina.

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Florida is worth +5.7 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 77th percentile.

70% at home, 45% on the road against FBS opponents (31-13 home, 17-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.3 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 309 miles to get here.

The story going in

South Carolina ends 8-game SEC losing streakOct 10, 2026

Last meeting in our History pages

South Carolina 40, Florida 17Nov 6, 2021

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Florida4th2-1
South Carolina16th0-3

Full SEC standings

South Carolina upsets No. 16 Florida 38-19