Oklahoma 27-24 Texas (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Texas · Oklahoma

No. 1 Texas4-124

Oklahoma3-227Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas (neutral site) · Crowd 92,100

Oklahoma beat No. 1 Texas 27-24 as a 7.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 9%.

Winners have been down to 9% or less in about 1 of every 12 games since 2018.

We had Texas favored. Oklahoma won.

Next: Texas lost to Florida 27-24, Sat Oct 17

Next: Oklahoma lost to Kentucky 21-13, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

Arch Manning about to open the best Toyota dealership in Austin

Q4 0:15 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Manning intercepted by Bowen at the UT42 and returned for a TD, Oklahoma goes ahead 24-17 (Q4, 10:07). Oklahoma went from 40% to 82% to win. Fans right then: “The duality of manning” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oklahoma a 19% chance, and the closing betting line (Oklahoma was a 7.5-point underdog) put it at 27%.

Blocked punt TD

Oklahoma · Q2 14:11Pick-six

Oklahoma · Q4 10:07

FinalOklahoma 27-24 TexasOklahoma wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The five plays that swung it

1Q4 14:48Avant 2-yd TD run, ties it 17-17Oklahoma 20% → 42% (+22)
2Q4 10:07InterceptionManning intercepted by Bowen at the UT42 and returned for a TD, Oklahoma goes ahead 24-17Oklahoma 40% → 82% (+42)
3Q4 6:32PenaltyManning 15-yd TD pass to Bishop; kick attempt good penalty ou leverage on G.SpeticOklahoma 75% → 47% (−28)
4Q4 1:54Spetic 53-yd field goal no goodOklahoma 28% → 60% (+32)
5Q4 0:00Sandell 47-yd field goal, Oklahoma goes ahead 27-24Oklahoma 68% → 100% (+32)

The five plays that swung it

1Q4 14:48Avant 2-yd TD run, ties it 17-17Texas 80% → 58% (−22)
2Q4 10:07InterceptionManning intercepted by Bowen at the UT42 and returned for a TD, Oklahoma goes ahead 24-17Texas 60% → 18% (−42)
3Q4 6:32PenaltyManning 15-yd TD pass to Bishop; kick attempt good penalty ou leverage on G.SpeticTexas 25% → 53% (+28)
4Q4 1:54Spetic 53-yd field goal no goodTexas 72% → 40% (−32)
5Q4 0:00Sandell 47-yd field goal, Oklahoma goes ahead 27-24Texas 32% → 0% (−32)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 3:33Oklahoma fans erupt as Mateer completes a pass for a first downAt some point I don't care anymore and I'd rather see Mateer throw it into quadruple coverage instead of running into the oline three times for a sack.r/CFB game thread
Q4 10:07Manning throws deep to Coleman for 42 yards as fans debate his inconsistencyThe duality of manningr/CFB game threadHow can Arch just go back and forth between the worst throw you ever saw to an absolute FDRr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:54Fans argue Manning's incomplete pass was a catch as Oklahoma leads Texas 24-24Mateer turning into “not garbage” for the Texas game is peak Red River babyr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:15Oklahoma fans celebrate Tate Sandell's game-winning field goal and flag plantingQuoted at the top of the page.

Oklahoma’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Texas -7.5), at 41% for Oklahoma (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Oklahoma or Texas flair (3,589 and 3,923); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Oklahoma’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Oklahoma scored on 3 of its 14 drives; Texas on 4 of its 15.

Oklahoma’s drives are teal, Texas’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Texas’s side

Texas’s best moment: Manning 15-yd TD pass to Bishop; kick attempt good penalty ou leverage on G.Spetic (Q4 6:32). It lifted Texas’s win chance by 28 points.

How Texas fans took it: “Thank God, no pure luck to bail us out this week, the nation gets to see us for who we really are. A team that blows a lead against the worst OU team in…” r/CFB game thread

“That looked like Mateer threw that......”

An Oklahoma fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were loudest as the game came down to the end.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was firestorm.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Oklahoma fans

mateer“Unironically - you gave Mateer a shot to show he was ready. He proved immediately he's not. Take. Him. Out.”

magic“Impossible point difference to overcome. We already burned all our sooner magic”

touchdown“Texas do you really need to score again?? We can't score another touchdown I promise you that.”

chance“It’s your time mateer. Your chance to not be a laughing stock this week. Defense serving you a silver platter. You gonna eat or choke?”

Texas fans

sark“I think Sark needs to really consider not coaching offense anymore. This is not it. OU literally is horrible and this should have been an easy win.”

don“i don’t wanna be a doomer but we’re going to get embarrassed by florida if we play like this next week”

blame“I fully blame Steve "they hired me for my play calling" sarkesian . Hire an OC dude. This isn't a game plan this is a lack of a game plan”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, now, back, refs.

The winner fell to 9%.

What it cost

Texas’s chance to make the playoff fell from 86% to 78%.

Make the playoff

Texas · lost86% → ▼78%

Oklahoma · won11% → ▲17%

Win the conference

Texas · lost21% → ▼12%

Oklahoma · won0% → ▲1%

Win the title

Texas · lost10% → ▼9%

Oklahoma · won0% → ▲1%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Oklahoma 27, Texas 24

Oklahoma covered +7.5 by 10.5. The total, 51, went over 40.5.

Team totals	Texas	Oklahoma
Total yards	382	238
Passing	19 of 31, 260 yds	18 of 26, 155 yds
Rushing	32 for 122 yds	31 for 83 yds
First downs	16	14
Third down	3 of 14	2 of 13
Fourth down	1 of 1	0 of 0
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	8 for 61 yds	7 for 62 yds
Time of possession	29:29	30:31

Texas leaders

Passing Arch Manning 19 of 31, 260 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Derrek Cooper 8 for 41 yds; Daylan Smothers 12 for 39 yds
Receiving Cam Coleman 5 for 110 yds, 1 TD; Ryan Wingo 2 for 57 yds, 1 TD

Oklahoma leaders

Passing John Mateer 18 of 26, 155 yds
Rushing Lloyd Avant 10 for 72 yds, 1 TD; Jonathan Hatton Jr. 5 for 12 yds
Receiving Isaiah Sategna 5 for 64 yds; Rocky Beers 4 for 29 yds

No rain and calm

88° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 9 mph from the south, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 22

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 10:07 left5:48 p.m.

Texas 17, Oklahoma 24 · Oklahoma 82% to win

no rain · wind 8 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 15 · 88°

Manning intercepted by Bowen at the UT42 and returned for a TD, Oklahoma goes ahead 24-17

Measured at Dallas/love Field, 7.1 miles away, and Dallas/redbird Airport, 9.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

This is Red River Rivalry — see the full head-to-head history →

Recent games

Last 4 games

Texas · 4-0

Rated 5th in our preseason ratings, 3rd now.

4 straight wins, 4 over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 20-17 @ TennesseeTop 25 #24 of 668

won by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 30-6 vs UTSA #11 of 668

won by 24 as a 29.5-point favorite

W 24-23 vs Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 668

won by 1 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 59-7 vs Texas State #31 of 668

won by 52 as a 29.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

Oklahoma · 2-2

Rated 17th in our preseason ratings, 22nd now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 13-41 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #1 of 668

lost by 28 as an 11.5-point underdog

W 14-6 vs New Mexico #68 of 668

won by 8 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 10-17 @ MichiganTop 25 #18 of 668

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 51-0 vs UTEP #196 of 668

won by 51 as a 40.5-point favorite

Week by week

Oklahoma

Wk 1Wvs UTEP51-0
Wk 2Lat Michigan10-17
Wk 3Wvs New Mexico14-6
Wk 4Lat Georgia13-41

Texas

Wk 1Wvs Texas State59-7
Wk 2Wvs Ohio State24-23
Wk 3Wvs UTSA30-6
Wk 4Wat Tennessee20-17

Power rating by week

Texas is rated 6.4 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma’s explosive plays against Texas, 96 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oklahoma’s explosive plays against Texas’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 2nd percentile · Texas defense, 98th
Texas’s EPA/play against Oklahoma’s defense
Texas offense, 20th percentile · Oklahoma defense, 93rd
Oklahoma’s rushing EPA against Texas’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 2nd percentile · Texas defense, 78th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

TexasOklahoma

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Texas leads the series 62-51-5

118 meetings since 1902 · Texas has won the last 2

2025 · neutral siteTexas 23-6
2024 · neutral siteTexas 34-3
2023 · neutral siteOklahoma 34-30The 2023 game and what was said
2022 · neutral siteTexas 49-0
2021 · neutral siteOklahoma 55-48

Each line is Oklahoma’s chance to win through that meeting. Oklahoma is 5-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Texas fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (36th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Texas favored by 7.5 · Total 40.5

How games like this usually go

Texas by 7.5, on the usual path until 14:48 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Texas.

The total fell 8 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Last meeting in our History pages

Texas 23, Oklahoma 6Allstate Red River Rivalry · Oct 11, 2025

Our History pages cover 12 of their meetings since 2015.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Oklahoma14th0-1
Texas7th1-0

Full SEC standings

Oklahoma upsets No. 1 Texas 27-24