James Madison beats Georgia Southern 27-24
Team pages: James Madison · Georgia Southern
James Madison beat Georgia Southern 27-24. Share this game
We had James Madison favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
Fairly sure they didn't charge us a timeout because of the defensive penalty but literally no one but the officials noticed
How it swung
The turning point: 33-yd punt, Dallas returns it 6 (Q4, 1:47). James Madison went from 94% to 72% to win. Fans right then: “STOP GOING IN SHOTGUN ON 1 YARD SITUATIONS” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave James Madison a 76% chance, and the closing betting line (James Madison was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.
A tight one: James Madison bottomed out at 33% and won.
Up to 67% in the second quarter, then Georgia Southern lost it.
James Madison · Q3 13:16James Madison 27-24 Georgia Southern
James Madison wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Georgia Southern 24-27 James MadisonGeorgia Southern lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:47Special teams33-yd punt, Dallas returns it 6James Madison 94% → 72% (−22)
- 2Q4 0:47Ford 52-yd field goal no goodJames Madison 78% → 97% (+19)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:47Special teams33-yd punt, Dallas returns it 6Georgia Southern 6% → 28% (+22)
- 2Q4 0:47Ford 52-yd field goal no goodGeorgia Southern 22% → 3% (−19)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 0:42James Madison fans demand running plays after Coleman's deep pass is broken up
WHY WOULD YOU THROW THERE! JUST ~~EAT THE DAMN ORANGE~~ RUN THE DAMN BALL
r/CFB game thread - Q2 0:06Officials fail to correct scoreboard after defensive penalty saves JMU timeoutQuoted at the top of the page.
I guess they didn’t count the timeout on that personal foul? That’s my only guess
r/CFB game thread - Q3 7:48Evans throws deep touchdown pass to Keller as James Madison fans praise the play call
BOCA RATON BOWL MVP JC EVANS
r/CFB game thread - Q4 5:27James Madison fans celebrate Evans' touchdown pass to Mosley and praise the aggressive fourth-down strategy
A SECOND JC EVANS TOUCHDOWN PASS HAS HIT STATESBORO
r/CFB game threadI’m loving this 11 man blitz GASO is running against Evans on 4th down
r/CFB game thread - Q4 2:14James Madison fans rage at shotgun formation on 1st and goal instead of QB sneak
STOP GOING IN SHOTGUN ON 1 YARD SITUATIONS
r/CFB game threadJUST SNEAK IT, WHY
r/CFB game thread - Q4 0:53Georgia Southern misses a 52-yard field goal as James Madison wins 27-24
Ended the losing streak but GG Georgia Southern nonetheless, hell of a game
r/CFB game threadMissed it by a foot. Should have rushed a single time
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (James Madison -7), at 61% for James Madison (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show James Madison’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 12:33Johnson 18-yd TD pass to BradshawGeorgia Southern goes ahead 7-0Q1, 12:33 · James Madison 0, Georgia Southern 7▼15%James Madison’s chance to win, 54% to 39%▼15%James Madison’s chance to win, 54% to 39%▶Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
- Q1, 2:45Johnson intercepted by Willis at the GASO38Q1, 2:45 · James Madison 0, Georgia Southern 7▲9%James Madison’s chance to win, 37% to 46%▲9%James Madison’s chance to win, 37% to 46%▶Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
- Q3, 13:16Coleman 2-yd TD pass to HarrisonJames Madison goes ahead 13-10Q3, 13:16 · James Madison 13, Georgia Southern 10▲12%James Madison’s chance to win, 54% to 66%▲12%James Madison’s chance to win, 54% to 66%▶Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
- Q3, 12:11Johnson 15-yd pass to HelmsfumbledQ3, 12:11 · James Madison 13, Georgia Southern 10▲12%James Madison’s chance to win, 59% to 71%▲12%James Madison’s chance to win, 59% to 71%▶Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
- Q3, 7:48Evans 57-yd TD pass to KellerJames Madison leads 20-10Q3, 7:48 · James Madison 20, Georgia Southern 10▲6%James Madison’s chance to win, 77% to 83%▲6%James Madison’s chance to win, 77% to 83%▶Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
- Q4, 12:50Johnson 25-yd TD pass to Toddcuts it to 20-17Q4, 12:50 · James Madison 20, Georgia Southern 17▼15%James Madison’s chance to win, 88% to 73%▼15%James Madison’s chance to win, 88% to 73%▶Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
- Q4, 5:27Evans 1-yd TD pass to MosleyJames Madison leads 27-17Q4, 5:27 · James Madison 27, Georgia Southern 17▲11%James Madison’s chance to win, 84% to 95%▲11%James Madison’s chance to win, 84% to 95%▶Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
- Q4, 2:27Johnson 6-yd TD pass to Greenecuts it to 27-24Q4, 2:27 · James Madison 27, Georgia Southern 24▲3%James Madison’s chance to win, 91% to 94%▲3%James Madison’s chance to win, 91% to 94%▶Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
Every drive
James Madison scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Georgia Southern on 4 of its 10.
James Madison’s drives are teal, Georgia Southern’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Georgia Southern’s side
Georgia Southern’s best moment: 33-yd punt, Dallas returns it 6 (Q4 1:47). It lifted Georgia Southern’s win chance by 22 points.
How Georgia Southern fans took it: “Max if you are going to play CFB as a 35 years old you HAVE to hit that wide TD pass.” r/CFB game thread
“Boy our secondary sure is, uh, well I don't want to say "something."”
When fans got loud
Firestorm
Fans peaked right at the end.
The jump was firestorm; the crowd was steady.
Too close to call on 51% of plays.
What it cost
James Madison’s chance to make the playoff rose from 15% to 18%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
James Madison 27, Georgia Southern 24
Georgia Southern covered +7 by 4. The total, 51, stayed under 51.5.
| Team totals | James Madison | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 438 | 465 |
| Passing | 18 of 29, 229 yds | 26 of 40, 343 yds |
| Rushing | 48 for 209 yds | 25 for 122 yds |
| First downs | 23 | 23 |
| Third down | 5 of 16 | 5 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Penalties | 9 for 75 yds | 7 for 78 yds |
| Time of possession | 31:17 | 28:43 |
James Madison leaders
- Passing Camden Coleman 16 of 27, 171 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing George Pettaway 21 for 151 yds; Seth Cromwell 9 for 40 yds
- Receiving Cole Keller 4 for 108 yds, 1 TD; Michael Scott 4 for 68 yds
Georgia Southern leaders
- Passing Max Johnson 26 of 38, 343 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Tyrese Woodgett 11 for 65 yds; Terrance Gibbs 5 for 24 yds
- Receiving Josh Dallas 8 for 111 yds; Jeremiah Ware 1 for 50 yds
Kickoff came 38 minutes late
77° at kickoff · 0.01 in of rain
No thunder was reported at Statesboro/bulloch Co airport (5.6 miles away) around the delay.
The usual here around this date is 70°, with about 7 in 10 games between 63° and 78°.
October game-day temperatures at Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Statesboro/bulloch Co airport, 5.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
James Madison · 5-0
Rated 85th in our preseason ratings, 39th now, up 46 spots.
Three straight wins, including a 13-point win over San Diego State as a 3-point underdog.
Last three games
Georgia Southern · 2-3
Rated 99th in our preseason ratings, 93rd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 31-0 vs Charleston Southern #219 of 668
won by 31 as a 28.5-point favorite
Week by week
Georgia Southern
- Wk 1Wvs Charleston Southern31-0
- Wk 2Lat Clemson7-22
- Wk 3Lat Jacksonville State27-31
- Wk 4Lvs Houston28-42
- Wk 5Wat Coastal Carolina31-24
James Madison
- Wk 1Wvs Liberty20-13
- Wk 2Wvs Wagner87-3
- Wk 3Wat San Diego State26-13
- Wk 4Wat Old Dominion46-20
- Wk 5Wvs Marshall45-17
Power rating by week
James Madison is rated 5.7 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: James Madison’s passing EPA against Georgia Southern, 63 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
James Madison’s passing EPA against Georgia Southern’s defense
James Madison offense, 85th percentile · Georgia Southern defense, 22nd
Georgia Southern’s EPA/play against James Madison’s defense
Georgia Southern offense, 49th percentile · James Madison defense, 84th
James Madison’s explosive plays against Georgia Southern’s defense
James Madison offense, 55th percentile · Georgia Southern defense, 71st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
The series is tied 2-2
4 meetings since 2022 · James Madison won the last meeting
- 2025James Madison 35-10
- 2024Georgia Southern 28-14
- 2023James Madison 41-13
- 2022Georgia Southern 45-38
Each line is Georgia Southern’s chance to win through that meeting. Georgia Southern is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
James Madison fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (51st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
James Madison favored by 7 · Total 51.5
How games like this usually go
James Madison by 7, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Georgia Southern.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: +7.5 → +7 · Total: 54.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Georgia Southern is worth +6.5 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 89th percentile.
63% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (27-16 home, 19-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.2 at home vs. away over 103 games — outside the ±5.3 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 447 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Georgia Southern3rd1-0
- James Madison2nd2-0