Kentucky 21-13 Oklahoma (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Kentucky · Oklahoma

No. 15 Kentucky6-121

Oklahoma3-313Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK), Norman, Okla. · Crowd 83,218

No. 15 Kentucky beat Oklahoma 21-13 as a 7-point underdog.

We had Oklahoma favored. Kentucky won.

Next: Kentucky vs Vanderbilt, Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Kentucky favored by 10.5

Next: Oklahoma at Mississippi State, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Oklahoma favored by 4.5

Top comment in the game thread

You cannot be serious lmfao

Q2 9:00 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Castell 41-yd interception return TD, Kentucky leads 21-13 (Q4, 1:17). Kentucky went from 45% to 87% to win. Fans right then: “Is John Mateer the worst d1 qb in history?” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Kentucky a 45% chance, and the closing betting line (Kentucky was a 7-point underdog) put it at 29%.

Pick-six

Kentucky · Q4 1:17

FinalKentucky 21-13 OklahomaKentucky wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 8:22Interception4th and 2Ulrich intercepted by Castell at the UK00Kentucky 31% → 50% (+19)
2Q4 1:17InterceptionCastell 41-yd interception return TD, Kentucky leads 21-13Kentucky 45% → 87% (+42)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 8:22Interception4th and 2Ulrich intercepted by Castell at the UK00Oklahoma 69% → 50% (−19)
2Q4 1:17InterceptionCastell 41-yd interception return TD, Kentucky leads 21-13Oklahoma 55% → 13% (−42)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 9:00Oklahoma fans rip Arbuckle's trick play call and Mateer's throw on 4th and 1What a weak ass throw Jesusr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q2 8:22A fake field goal play resulted in a touchback.Faked a kick and the holder threw it to our guy in the endzoner/CFB game thread
Q4 6:04Kentucky fans rip Stein for going for it instead of kicking field goalShould’ve gone for the field goal after the timeout 😭r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:23Mateer throws interception, Castell returns it for touchdown, Kentucky leads 21-13Is John Mateer the worst d1 qb in history?r/CFB game thread

Kentucky’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oklahoma -7), at 26% for Kentucky (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Oklahoma or Kentucky flair (1,750 and 1,229); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Kentucky’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Kentucky scored on 2 of its 10 drives; Oklahoma on 3 of its 10.

Kentucky’s drives are teal, Oklahoma’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Oklahoma’s side

Oklahoma’s best moment: Mateer intercepted by Bryant at the UK25 (Q4 0:21). It lifted Oklahoma’s win chance by 31 points.

How Oklahoma fans took it: “can’t hate Kentucky because of they gave us SGA and Cason Wallace GGs” r/CFB game thread

“Thanks for staying in bounds!”

A Kentucky fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The loudest stretch was the finish.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Kentucky fans

stein“Will Stein has completely changed this program in under a year. Its unbelievable”

secondary“Our secondary has looked like swiss cheese, just line up and go for it if you're going to do that.”

kicker“That was an objectively horrible call. The defense has been ok. I know our kicker is shaky, but you need to be up 4 there.”

grounding“Intentional grounding, by rule, requires intent to conserve yardage or time.”

Oklahoma fans

mateer“In fairness to the Kentucky defense literally no tape of Mateer playing like this exists.”

fake“The game was essentially won if we get up 16-7 but we just cannot execute. Why, why on earth, did we try the fake FG?”

line“Call me a casual but when they don't display the yellow line on the field I feel lost”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, now, call, take.

The winner fell to 12%.

What it cost

Kentucky’s chance to make the playoff rose from 26% to 36%.

Make the playoff

Kentucky · won26% → ▲36%

Oklahoma · lost19% → ▼10%

Win the conference

Kentucky · won1% → ▲3%

Oklahoma · lost1% → ▼0%

Win the title

Kentucky · won0% → ▲1%

Oklahoma · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Kentucky plays vs Vanderbilt on Sat Oct 24 with a 36% chance to make the playoff. Oklahoma plays at Mississippi State on Sat Oct 24 with a 10% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13

Kentucky covered +7 by 15. The total, 34, stayed under 44.5.

Team totals	Kentucky	Oklahoma
Total yards	230	346
Passing	21 of 28, 158 yds	24 of 41, 270 yds
Rushing	26 for 72 yds	31 for 76 yds
First downs	14	19
Third down	5 of 12	8 of 17
Fourth down	1 of 2	2 of 3
Turnovers	0	4
Penalties	4 for 32 yds	4 for 31 yds
Time of possession	28:36	31:24

Kentucky leaders

Passing Kenny Minchey 21 of 28, 158 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Jason Patterson 12 for 38 yds; Mikkel Skinner 1 for 16 yds
Receiving Nic Anderson 5 for 48 yds; Willie Rodriguez 5 for 38 yds, 2 TD

Oklahoma leaders

Passing John Mateer 24 of 40, 270 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
Rushing Lloyd Avant 8 for 31 yds; Tory Blaylock 7 for 23 yds
Receiving Manny Choice 5 for 98 yds; Isaiah Sategna 8 for 83 yds

No rain through the game

57° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 69°, with about 7 in 10 games between 57° and 78°.

Game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 1:17 left9:33 p.m.

Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13 · Oklahoma 13% to win

no rain · 53°

Castell 41-yd interception return TD, Kentucky leads 21-13

Measured at Norman/westheimer airport, 3.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Kentucky · 5-1

Rated 102nd in our preseason ratings, 44th now, up 58 spots.

Three straight wins, capped by a 1-point win over LSU as a 9.5-point underdog.

W 35-34 vs LSUTop 25 #12 of 668

won by 1 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 35-34 @ South Carolina #40 of 668

won by 1 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 45-21 vs South Alabama #73 of 668

won by 24 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 31-21 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #8 of 668

won by 10 as a 16.5-point underdog

L 17-45 vs AlabamaTop 25 #20 of 668

lost by 28 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 45-13 vs Youngstown State #126 of 668

won by 32 as a 22.5-point favorite

Last three games

Oklahoma · 3-2

Rated 17th in our preseason ratings, 20th now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over Texas as a 7.5-point underdog.

W 27-24 vs TexasTop 25 #5 of 668

won by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 13-41 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #1 of 668

lost by 28 as an 11.5-point underdog

W 14-6 vs New Mexico #68 of 668

won by 8 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 10-17 @ MichiganTop 25 #18 of 668

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 51-0 vs UTEP #196 of 668

won by 51 as a 40.5-point favorite

Week by week

Oklahoma

Wk 1Wvs UTEP51-0
Wk 2Lat Michigan10-17
Wk 3Wvs New Mexico14-6
Wk 4Lat Georgia13-41
Wk 6Wvs Texas27-24

Kentucky

Wk 2Lvs Alabama17-45
Wk 3Wat Texas A&M31-21
Wk 4Wvs South Alabama45-21
Wk 5Wat South Carolina35-34
Wk 6Wvs LSU35-34

Power rating by week

Oklahoma is rated 3.8 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma’s explosive plays against Kentucky, 69 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oklahoma’s explosive plays against Kentucky’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 2nd percentile · Kentucky defense, 71st
Oklahoma’s EPA/play against Kentucky’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 8th percentile · Kentucky defense, 63rd
Oklahoma’s rushing EPA against Kentucky’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 2nd percentile · Kentucky defense, 32nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

KentuckyOklahoma

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Oklahoma leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 1950 · Oklahoma has won the last 2

1982Oklahoma 29-8
1980Oklahoma 29-7
1950 · neutral siteKentucky 13-7

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Kentucky fans are in a better mood than Oklahoma fans (71st vs 37th among FBS fanbases), even with Oklahoma favored.

Oklahoma favored by 7 · Total 44.5

How games like this usually go

Oklahoma by 7: the game against the usual path

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Oklahoma.

The total rose 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Oklahoma is worth +5.6 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 76th percentile.

84% at home, 61% on the road against FBS opponents (43-8 home, 22-14 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.0 at home vs. away over 91 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 743 miles to get here.

The story going in

Kentucky fans storm State Street after historic win over LSUOct 11, 2026

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Oklahoma11th1-1
Kentucky4th3-1

Full SEC standings

No. 15 Kentucky upsets Oklahoma 21-13