Western Carolina beats Furman 27-26
Team pages: Western Carolina · Furman
Western Carolina beat Furman 27-26. Share this game
We had Western Carolina favored. It won.
Next: Western Carolina vs Wofford, Sat Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET
Next: Furman at The Citadel, Sat Nov 7 · 2:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: McCollum 36-yd field goal, Western Carolina goes ahead 27-26 (Q4, 0:04). Western Carolina went from 51% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Western Carolina a 51% chance, and the closing betting line (Western Carolina was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.
Down to 29% in the fourth quarter, Western Carolina came back to win.
Up to 71% in the fourth quarter, then Furman lost it.
Furman · Q2 4:58
Western Carolina 27-26 FurmanWestern Carolina wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Furman 26-27 Western CarolinaFurman lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The five plays that swung it
- 1Q2 4:58Smith 79-yd TD run, Furman goes ahead 17-14Western Carolina 58% → 31% (−27)
- 2Q2 0:15Thomas 40-yd TD pass to Boyd, Western Carolina goes ahead 24-17Western Carolina 48% → 68% (+20)
- 3Q4 6:3824-yd puntWestern Carolina 60% → 39% (−21)
- 4Q4 1:57Chapman 25-yd field goal, Furman goes ahead 26-24Western Carolina 49% → 29% (−20)
- 5Q4 0:04McCollum 36-yd field goal, Western Carolina goes ahead 27-26Western Carolina 51% → 100% (+49)
The five plays that swung it
- 1Q2 4:58Smith 79-yd TD run, Furman goes ahead 17-14Furman 42% → 69% (+27)
- 2Q2 0:15Thomas 40-yd TD pass to Boyd, Western Carolina goes ahead 24-17Furman 52% → 32% (−20)
- 3Q4 6:3824-yd puntFurman 40% → 61% (+21)
- 4Q4 1:57Chapman 25-yd field goal, Furman goes ahead 26-24Furman 51% → 71% (+20)
- 5Q4 0:04McCollum 36-yd field goal, Western Carolina goes ahead 27-26Furman 49% → 0% (−49)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Western Carolina -1.5), at 68% for Western Carolina (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Western Carolina scored on 3 of its 14 drives; Furman on 5 of its 14.
Western Carolina’s drives are teal, Furman’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Furman’s side
Furman’s best moment: Smith 79-yd TD run, Furman goes ahead 17-14 (Q2 4:58). It lifted Furman’s win chance by 27 points.
Too close to call on 57% of plays.
Box score
Western Carolina 27, Furman 26
Furman covered +1.5 by 0.5. The total, 53, went over 52.5.
Western Carolina leaders
- Passing Lex Thomas 22 of 37, 195 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Richard Hollis 1 for 36 yds; Lex Thomas 15 for 36 yds
- Receiving Jai Boyd 4 for 83 yds, 1 TD; Matthew Keener 2 for 36 yds
Furman leaders
- Passing Trey Smith 9 of 19, 120 yds, 2 INT
- Rushing Trey Smith 22 for 162 yds, 1 TD; Ben Croasdale 23 for 82 yds
- Receiving Cameron James 1 for 47 yds; Luke Shields 2 for 26 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Western Carolina · 3-5
Rated 197th in our preseason ratings, 180th now, up 17 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 24-point win over Tennessee Tech as a 13.5-point underdog.
L 18-41 vs Chattanooga No. 133 of 668 teams
lost by 23 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 14-17 @ Mercer No. 141 of 668 teams
lost by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 44-20 vs Tennessee Tech No. 126 of 668 teams
won by 24 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 31-58 @ East Tennessee State No. 167 of 668 teams
lost by 27 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 45-21 vs Eastern Kentucky No. 169 of 668 teams
won by 24 as a 3-point favorite
Last three games
Furman · 2-6
Rated 202nd in our preseason ratings, 193rd now.
Three straight losses.
W 20-3 vs Anderson (SC) No. 372 of 668 teams
Week by week
Furman
- Wk 3Lvs South Carolina State17-20
- Wk 4Lat Richmond9-13
- Wk 5Lvs Wofford25-32
- Wk 6Lat Tennessee Tech15-20
- Wk 8Lvs Samford6-13
Western Carolina
- Wk 3Wvs Presbyterian58-14
- Wk 4Lat East Tennessee State31-58
- Wk 5Wvs Tennessee Tech44-20
- Wk 6Lat Mercer14-17
- Wk 8Lvs Chattanooga18-41
Power rating by week
Western Carolina is rated 1.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Furman leads the series 22-7-1
30 meetings since 1971 · Western Carolina has won the last 2
- 2025Western Carolina 52-7
- 2024Western Carolina 52-20
- 2023Furman 29-17
- 2022Furman 47-40
- 2021Western Carolina 43-42
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Furman’s chances here.
Western Carolina favored by 1.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
Western Carolina by 1.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 304 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Furman.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: +2.5 → +1.5 · Total: 54.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 10% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 1-9 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.9 at home vs. away over 59 games — inside the ±7.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 50 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Furman8th1-3
- Western Carolina7th1-3