Alabama A&M beats Alabama State 31-28
Team pages: Alabama State · Alabama A&M
Alabama A&M beat Alabama State 31-28. Share this game
We had Alabama A&M favored. It won.
Next: Alabama State at Texas Southern, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET
Next: Alabama A&M at Prairie View A&M, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Brown 2-yd run (Q4, 2:00). Alabama A&M went from 65% to 82% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alabama A&M a 73% chance, and the closing betting line (Alabama A&M was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.
Favored the whole way: Alabama A&M never fell below 69%.
Alabama State never had better than a 30% chance.
Alabama A&M 31-28 Alabama State
Alabama A&M wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Alabama State 28-31 Alabama A&MAlabama State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:01Howard 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 31-28Alabama A&M 93% → 81% (−12)
- 2Q4 2:00Brown 2-yd runAlabama A&M 65% → 82% (+17)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:01Howard 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 31-28Alabama State 7% → 19% (+12)
- 2Q4 2:00Brown 2-yd runAlabama State 35% → 18% (−17)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Alabama A&M -7), at 73% for Alabama A&M (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Alabama A&M scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Alabama State on 4 of its 11.
Alabama A&M’s drives are teal, Alabama State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Alabama State’s side
Alabama State’s best moment: Howard 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 31-28 (Q4 3:01). It lifted Alabama State’s win chance by 12 points.
Box score
Alabama A&M 31, Alabama State 28
Alabama State covered +7 by 4. The total, 59, went over 56.5.
Alabama State leaders
- Passing Aaron Frye 14 of 21, 158 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Aaron Frye 18 for 90 yds; Jareese Howard 12 for 46 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving Randall King 5 for 88 yds; Kareem Keye 4 for 32 yds
Alabama A&M leaders
- Passing Cornelious Brown 22 of 35, 216 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Kolton Nero 6 for 81 yds, 1 TD; Byron Perrilliat 13 for 68 yds
- Receiving Jaylan Bean 5 for 64 yds, 1 TD; Imari Conley 6 for 59 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Alabama State · 4-3
Rated 114th in our preseason ratings, 161st now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 41-15 vs Mississippi Valley State No. 265 of 668 teams
won by 26 as a 34.5-point favorite
W 34-0 vs Lane College No. 399 of 668 teams
Last three games
Alabama A&M · 6-2
Rated 189th in our preseason ratings, 111th now, up 78 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 45-3 vs Bowie State No. 334 of 668 teams
W 38-23 vs Miles No. 307 of 668 teams
L 24-31 @ Howard No. 235 of 668 teams
lost by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite
Week by week
Alabama A&M
- Wk 3Wvs Bowie State45-3
- Wk 4Wat Florida A&M40-21
- Wk 5Lat Jackson State28-31
- Wk 6Wvs Bethune-Cookman55-17
- Wk 7Wvs Grambling61-31
Alabama State
- Wk 2Lat Troy17-34
- Wk 4Wvs Mississippi Valley State41-15
- Wk 5Lat Bethune-Cookman10-16
- Wk 6Lvs Florida A&M27-28
- Wk 7Wat Arkansas-Pine Bluff21-15
Power rating by week
Alabama A&M is rated 3.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
The series is tied 9-9
18 meetings since 2007 · Alabama State has won the last 4
- 2025 · neutral siteAlabama State 56-13
- 2024 · neutral siteAlabama State 27-19
- 2023 · neutral siteAlabama State 31-16
- 2022 · neutral siteAlabama State 24-17
- 2021Alabama A&M 42-28
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Alabama A&M’s chances here.
Alabama A&M favored by 7 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
Alabama A&M by 7, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Alabama A&M.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: −6 → −7 · Total: 58.5 → 56.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Alabama A&M1st3-1
- Alabama State7th3-2