Baylor 55-19 Arizona State (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Baylor · Arizona State

Baylor4-155

Arizona State2-219Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Ariz. · Crowd 54,063

Baylor routed Arizona State 55-19.

We had Baylor favored. It won.

Next: Baylor lost to TCU 17-6, Sat Oct 17

Next: Arizona State beat Hawai'i 30-12, Sat Oct 10

Top comment in the game thread

In my nearly 3 years of watch Lagway I will never understand what kind of QB he is.

Q3 9:55 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Smith 32-yd field goal, cuts it to 21-6 (Q2, 9:59). Baylor went from 88% to 67% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Baylor a 62% chance, and the closing betting line (Baylor was a 3.5-point underdog) put it at 39%.

75-yard TD run

Baylor · Q3 4:31

FinalBaylor 55-19 Arizona StateBaylor wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 9:59Smith 32-yd field goal, cuts it to 21-6Baylor 88% → 67% (−21)
2Q2 1:51Boley 30-yd TD pass to Miller, cuts it to 21-13Baylor 84% → 64% (−20)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 9:59Smith 32-yd field goal, cuts it to 21-6Arizona State 12% → 33% (+21)
2Q2 1:51Boley 30-yd TD pass to Miller, cuts it to 21-13Arizona State 16% → 36% (+20)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 14:10Lagway throws touchdown to Brown IV as Baylor extends lead to 21-3Lagway is actually really good in the pocketr/CFB game thread
Q2 5:07Lagway misses wide open McGowan, then Armstrong misses field goalLagway looks so much better this game but he still has to just launch one 10 ft above a wide open receivers head for a should-be TD. It’s in his naturer/CFB game thread
Q3 10:28Boley throws interception as student section clears outI farted right as Boley threw the ball away, and it ended up being an accurate sound effect.r/CFB game thread
Q3 9:55Lagway misses open receiver then threads needle for Porter touchdownQuoted at the top of the page.The DJ Lagway experience in 2 snapsr/CFB game thread
Q3 4:44Baylor scores on first play after ASU field goal, emptying standslol the shots of people leaving the stadium, and Baylor scores on the first play of the drive. If I weren’t leaving before, that would be it for me.r/CFB game threadHave we considered that Baylor is scoring TOO fast and TOO many touchdowns? These Sun Devils have been burning the clock AND getting 3 points nearly every drive. Many people are…r/CFB game thread

Baylor’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Arizona State -3.5), at 34% for Baylor (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Arizona State or Baylor flair (739 and 593); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Baylor’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Baylor scored on 9 of its 14 drives; Arizona State on 5 of its 12.

Baylor’s drives are teal, Arizona State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Arizona State’s side

Arizona State’s best moment: Smith 32-yd field goal, cuts it to 21-6 (Q2 9:59). It lifted Arizona State’s win chance by 21 points.

How Arizona State fans took it: “This is actually the worst game we have played in 5 decades. Good news statically this is the bottom..” r/CFB game thread

“At least we have a kicker this year! Only 5 more FGs to go”

An Arizona State fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were loudest in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Baylor fans

lagway“In my nearly 3 years of watch Lagway I will never understand what kind of QB he is.”

Arizona State fans

boley“Cutter Boley better learn how to budget that NIL money because he’s gonna be putting fries in the bag next year”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, look, back, don.

What it cost

Baylor’s chance to make the playoff rose from 3% to 5%.

Make the playoff

Baylor · won3% → ▲5%

Arizona State · lost2% → ▼1%

Win the conference

Baylor · won3% → ▲5%

Arizona State · lost2% → ▼1%

Before the game (October 3, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Baylor 55, Arizona State 19

Baylor covered +3.5 by 39.5. The total, 74, went over 49.5.

Team totals	Baylor	Arizona State
Total yards	564	409
Passing	27 of 43, 320 yds	26 of 44, 310 yds
Rushing	36 for 244 yds	30 for 99 yds
First downs	26	23
Third down	9 of 15	4 of 15
Fourth down	1 of 1	0 of 2
Turnovers	0	3
Penalties	3 for 37 yds	1 for 15 yds
Time of possession	31:05	28:55

Baylor leaders

Passing D.J. Lagway 25 of 40, 306 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Caden Knighten 6 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Ryelan Morris 9 for 84 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Gavin Freeman 7 for 115 yds; Louis Brown 6 for 68 yds, 1 TD

Arizona State leaders

Passing Cutter Boley 25 of 43, 304 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Cardae Mack 5 for 34 yds; Kyson Brown 7 for 34 yds
Receiving Reed Harris 7 for 125 yds; Omarion Miller 5 for 85 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

90° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Mountain America Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 9:59 left8:36 p.m.

Baylor 21, Arizona State 6 · Arizona State 33% to win

no rain · 89°

Smith 32-yd field goal, cuts it to 21-6

Measured at Phoenix/sky Harbor airport, 4.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Baylor · 3-1

Rated 33rd in our preseason ratings, 37th now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 23-13 vs Colorado #119 of 668

won by 10 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 36-19 vs Louisiana Tech #91 of 668

won by 17 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 44-3 vs Prairie View A&M #108 of 668

won by 41 as a 37.5-point favorite

L 16-17 @ Auburn #70 of 668

lost by 1 as a 6.5-point underdog

Last three games

Arizona State · 2-1

Rated 54th in our preseason ratings, 53rd now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 24-17 @ Kansas #83 of 668

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 20-48 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #6 of 668

lost by 28 as a 15.5-point underdog

W 70-7 vs Morgan State #223 of 668

won by 63 as a 43.5-point favorite

Week by week

Arizona State

Wk 1Wvs Morgan State70-7
Wk 2Lat Texas A&M20-48
Wk 3Wat Kansas24-17

Baylor

Wk 1Lat Auburn16-17
Wk 2Wvs Prairie View A&M44-3
Wk 3Wvs Louisiana Tech36-19
Wk 4Wvs Colorado23-13

Power rating by week

Baylor is rated 2.2 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Arizona State’s EPA/play against Baylor, 71 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Arizona State’s EPA/play against Baylor’s defense
Arizona State offense, 23rd percentile · Baylor defense, 94th
Arizona State’s rushing EPA against Baylor’s defense
Arizona State offense, 28th percentile · Baylor defense, 98th
Baylor’s explosive plays against Arizona State’s defense
Baylor offense, 92nd percentile · Arizona State defense, 58th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

BaylorArizona State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Arizona State leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 1990 · Arizona State has won the last 2

2025Arizona State 27-24
1990Arizona State 34-13

Each line is Arizona State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Baylor fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (79th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Arizona State favored by 3.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Arizona State by 3.5, on the usual path until Q1 6:11

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 88° at kickoff.

Baylor at Arizona State · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Mountain America Stadium, Tempe

88°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
84weather score, Mixed
Bestof the day's 3 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the best of the day's three kickoff times. At Mountain America Stadium that day, a 4:30 pm kickoff would have scored 66, against 84 at 7:30 pm.

4:30 pm: 66, Rough
6:30 pm: 81, Mixed
7:30 pm: 84, Mixed (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Arizona State is worth +1.8 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 16th percentile.

61% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (28-18 home, 17-25 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.8 at home vs. away over 93 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 872 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Arizona State 27, Baylor 24Sep 20, 2025

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Arizona State7th1-0
Baylor6th1-0

Full Big 12 standings

Baylor routs Arizona State 55-19