The turning point:Riley 72-yd TD run, Boise State goes ahead 8-7 (Q1, 10:10). Boise State went from 43% to 68% to win. Fans right then: “HELL YEAH I knew that play was gonna be good when the fresno state guy came in from the other side” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Boise State a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (Boise State was a 8.5-point favorite) put it at 75%.
A tight one: Boise State bottomed out at 43% and won.
Fresno State never had better than a 57% chance.
FinalBoise State 38-31 Fresno StateBoise State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalFresno State 31-38 Boise StateFresno State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
The two plays that swung it
1Q1 10:10Riley 72-yd TD run, Boise State goes ahead 8-7Boise State 43% → 68% (+25)
2Q1 0:45Martin 59-yd TD pass to Avit, cuts it to 15-13Boise State 83% → 68% (−15)
The two plays that swung it
1Q1 10:10Riley 72-yd TD run, Boise State goes ahead 8-7Fresno State 57% → 32% (−25)
2Q1 0:45Martin 59-yd TD pass to Avit, cuts it to 15-13Fresno State 17% → 32% (+15)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 10:10A player ran in from the other side during a play.HELL YEAH I knew that play was gonna be good when the fresno state guy came in from the other sider/CFB game thread
Q2 15:00Fans mock hot mic as officials rule Madsen pass incomplete, not fumbleQuoted at the top of the page.The snarkiest refr/CFB game thread
Q2 9:49Fans argue a targeting call on Madsen's run was a late hitThat’s not targeting. These refs are stupidr/CFB game threadCan someone tell these football players to stop interrupting my ref show?r/CFB game thread
Q4 9:14Boise State fans celebrate Sire Gaines' 10-yard run as Fresno State defense collapsesDamn Gaines…r/CFB game thread
Q4 0:36Boise State recovers the onside kick to end the gameField goal then onside is the way to go why are people so confuse lol. It’s good strategy in these situations most teams would do this. Plus you find out earlier if you’ve lost.r/CFB game threadthat might be the single worst onside kick attempt in the history of historyr/CFB game thread
Boise State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Boise State -8.5), at 65% for Boise State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Fresno State or Boise State flair (220 and 1,322); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Every drive
Boise State scored on 7 of its 10 drives; Fresno State on 5 of its 8.
Boise State’s drives are teal, Fresno State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Boise State 8, Fresno State 7 · Fresno State 32% to win
no rain · wind 9 mph from the west-northwest, mostly at an angle to the field · 77°
Riley 72-yd TD run, Boise State goes ahead 8-7
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Fresno Air Terminal airport, 3.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is Milk Can — see the full head-to-head history →
Recent games
Last three games
Boise State · 4-1
Rated 37th in our preseason ratings, 13th now, up 24 spots.
Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Boise State is rated 5.1 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Fresno State’s explosive plays against Boise State, 59 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Fresno State’s explosive plays against Boise State’s defense
Fresno State offense, 59th percentile · Boise State defense, 0th
Boise State’s success rate against Fresno State’s defense
Boise State offense, 85th percentile · Fresno State defense, 38th
Boise State’s passing EPA against Fresno State’s defense
Boise State offense, 89th percentile · Fresno State defense, 53rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Boise StateFresno State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Boise State leads the series 17-10
27 meetings since 1977 · Fresno State has won the last 3
2025Fresno State 30-7
2023Fresno State 37-30
2022Fresno State 28-16
2022Boise State 40-20
2021Boise State 40-14
Each line is Fresno State’s chance to win through that meeting. Fresno State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Boise State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (40th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Model · 43%
Line · 25%
Fresno State fans · 37th
Boise State fans · 40th
Boise State favored by 8.5 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
Boise State by 8.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Boise State.
Spread: +6.5 → +8.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Fresno State is worth +4.8 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 62nd percentile.
69% at home, 54% on the road against FBS opponents (29-13 home, 28-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.4 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 505 miles to get here.
Boise State 38-31 Fresno State
Boise State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.