Texas Tech 53-25 Arizona State (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Arizona State · Texas Tech

Arizona State3-325

No. 10 Texas Tech6-053Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, Texas · Crowd 60,229

No. 10 Texas Tech routed Arizona State 53-25.

We had Texas Tech favored. It won.

Next: Arizona State vs Kansas State, Sat Oct 24 · 3:45 PM ET · Arizona State underdog by 3.5

Next: Texas Tech at Cincinnati, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Texas Tech favored by 10.5

Top comment in the game thread

More moves than a military family, lmao.

Q2 4:08 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas Tech a 94% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas Tech was a 16.5-point favorite) put it at 91%.

Pick-six

Texas Tech · Q1 7:48

FinalTexas Tech 53-25 Arizona StateTexas Tech wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 7:48Boley throws pick-six to Roberts; Arizona State fans demand he be benchedGod Boley sucksr/CFB game thread
Q1 7:41Boley loses a yard on fourth down, turning the ball over to Texas TechLast year's defense showed up todayr/CFB game thread
Q1 5:26Texas Tech fans celebrate Hammond's spin move and upheld catch ruling# HAMMOND WITH THE SPIN CYCLEr/CFB game thread
Q1 5:12A player used a spin move during a touchdown run.# HAMMOND WITH THE SPIN CYCLEr/CFB game thread
Q1 3:17Boley throws 74-yard touchdown pass to Vines-Bright, making it 21-7Defense gave up. They know Boley ain't gonna get it doner/CFB game threadI had 50-7 tech so that score gets me closerr/CFB game thread
Q2 4:08Williams runs for a touchdown as fans praise his moves and tackle ASUWilliams is that mf, good god manr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q2 0:55Hammond throws touchdown pass to Eakin as Texas Tech leads 40-10Is Tech allowed to play excellent football in a first half?r/CFB game threadHammond actually looks great this game wtfr/CFB game thread

Texas Tech’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Texas Tech -16.5), at 91% for Texas Tech (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Texas Tech or Arizona State flair (978 and 673); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Texas Tech’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Texas Tech scored on 9 of its 12 drives; Arizona State on 4 of its 13.

Texas Tech’s drives are teal, Arizona State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“That’s his 3rd pick 6 of the year.”

An Arizona State fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were up and loud before the first quarter was out.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Texas Tech fans

hammond“If Hammond can even look decent second half of season, we got a chance to win out. Unfortunately I’m not convinced”

Arizona State fans

boley“I better not see Boley touch the field ever again Demote him to 5th string backup water boy”

worst“Brother I can name at least 20 fanbases that will do this and Tech is nowhere near the worst”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, back, don, put.

What it cost

Texas Tech’s chance to make the playoff rose from 44% to 47%.

Make the playoff

Arizona State · lost0% → 0%

Texas Tech · won44% → ▲47%

Win the conference

Arizona State · lost0% → 0%

Texas Tech · won36% → ▲38%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Texas Tech plays at Cincinnati on Sat Oct 24 with a 47% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Texas Tech 53, Arizona State 25

Texas Tech covered −16.5 by 11.5. The total, 78, went over 50.5.

Team totals	Arizona State	Texas Tech
Total yards	415	502
Passing	30 of 44, 380 yds	19 of 27, 242 yds
Rushing	28 for 35 yds	37 for 260 yds
First downs	21	21
Third down	5 of 14	4 of 11
Fourth down	2 of 5	2 of 2
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	4 for 32 yds	3 for 29 yds
Time of possession	32:33	27:27

Arizona State leaders

Passing Mikey Keene 25 of 34, 256 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Kyson Brown 5 for 39 yds; Marquis Gillis 8 for 29 yds
Receiving Derek Eusebio 7 for 89 yds; Raiden Vines-Bright 1 for 74 yds, 1 TD

Texas Tech leaders

Passing Will Hammond 18 of 26, 232 yds, 1 TD
Rushing J'Koby Williams 11 for 165 yds, 2 TD; Will Hammond 6 for 25 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Kenny Johnson 7 for 120 yds; Micah Hudson 3 for 34 yds

No rain and calm

56° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the west-southwest, gusts to 12

The usual here around this date is 70°, with about 7 in 10 games between 55° and 82°.

October game-day temperatures at Jones AT&T Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:47 left2:46 p.m.

Arizona State 0, Texas Tech 0 · Texas Tech 91% to win

no rain · wind 3 mph from the west-northwest · 56°

Hammond 8-yd pass to Johnson

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Lubbock International Airport, 5.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Arizona State · 3-2

Rated 54th in our preseason ratings, 68th now, down 14 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 30-12 vs Hawai'i #130 of 668

won by 18 as a 20.5-point favorite

L 19-55 vs Baylor #29 of 668

lost by 36 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 24-17 @ Kansas #83 of 668

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 20-48 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #6 of 668

lost by 28 as a 15.5-point underdog

W 70-7 vs Morgan State #223 of 668

won by 63 as a 43.5-point favorite

Last three games

Texas Tech · 5-0

Rated 7th in our preseason ratings, 9th now.

Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 29-7 @ Colorado #107 of 668

won by 22 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 49-14 vs Sam Houston #131 of 668

won by 35 as a 34.5-point favorite

W 28-26 vs HoustonTop 25 #12 of 668

won by 2 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 35-24 @ Oregon State #60 of 668

won by 11 as a 25.5-point favorite

W 33-10 vs Abilene Christian #108 of 668

won by 23 as a 45.5-point favorite

Week by week

Texas Tech

Wk 1Wvs Abilene Christian33-10
Wk 2Wat Oregon State35-24
Wk 3Wvs Houston28-26
Wk 4Wvs Sam Houston49-14
Wk 5Wat Colorado29-7

Arizona State

Wk 1Wvs Morgan State70-7
Wk 2Lat Texas A&M20-48
Wk 3Wat Kansas24-17
Wk 5Lvs Baylor19-55
Wk 6Wvs Hawai'i30-12

Power rating by week

Texas Tech is rated 10.3 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Arizona State’s EPA/play against Texas Tech, 66 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Arizona State’s EPA/play against Texas Tech’s defense
Arizona State offense, 23rd percentile · Texas Tech defense, 89th
Arizona State’s passing EPA against Texas Tech’s defense
Arizona State offense, 24th percentile · Texas Tech defense, 87th
Texas Tech’s explosive plays against Arizona State’s defense
Texas Tech offense, 18th percentile · Arizona State defense, 58th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Arizona StateTexas Tech

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 3-3

6 meetings since 1999 · Arizona State won the last meeting

2025Arizona State 26-22
2024Texas Tech 30-22
2017Texas Tech 52-45
2016Arizona State 68-55
2013 · neutral siteTexas Tech 37-23

Each line is Texas Tech’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Texas Tech fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (55th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Texas Tech favored by 16.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Texas Tech by 16.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Texas Tech.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Texas Tech is worth +5.2 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 69th percentile.

65% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (30-16 home, 17-25 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.3 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 579 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Arizona State 26, Texas Tech 22Oct 18, 2025

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Texas Tech5th2-0
Arizona State8th1-1

Full Big 12 standings

No. 10 Texas Tech routs Arizona State 53-25