Syracuse 30-27 SMU (Oct 31, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: SMU · Syracuse

No. 19 SMU6-227

Syracuse4-430Final

Sat, Oct 31 · JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, N.Y. · Crowd 33,396

Syracuse beat No. 19 SMU 30-27 as an 8.5-point underdog.

We had SMU favored. Syracuse won.

Next: SMU vs Virginia Tech, Fri Nov 6 · 7:00 PM ET · SMU favored by 6

Next: Syracuse vs Clemson, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET · Syracuse underdog by 2.5

Cuse is in the house omg

A Syracuse fan

How it swung

The turning point: Angeli 2-yd TD pass to Meyers, Syracuse goes ahead 30-27 (Q4, 0:17). Syracuse went from 38% to 94% to win. Fans right then: “Rushing the field on halloween with your costume on is hilarious” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Syracuse a 17% chance, and the closing betting line (Syracuse was a 8.5-point underdog) put it at 25%.

Safety

SMU · Q4 12:0717 unanswered

SMU · Q4 9:04

FinalSyracuse 30-27 SMUSyracuse wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 9:04Raphael 13-yd TD run, two-point try good, SMU goes ahead 27-20Syracuse 36% → 15% (−21)
2Q4 0:17Angeli 2-yd TD pass to Meyers, Syracuse goes ahead 30-27Syracuse 38% → 94% (+56)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 9:04Raphael 13-yd TD run, two-point try good, SMU goes ahead 27-20SMU 64% → 85% (+21)
2Q4 0:17Angeli 2-yd TD pass to Meyers, Syracuse goes ahead 30-27SMU 62% → 6% (−56)

Rushing the field on halloween with your costume on is hilarious

Q4 0:09 · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 7:23Fans argue the color commentator is wrong about the out of bounds ruling on the incomplete passToe was down first. You can debate if it were out of bounds but that's a bad call from the center.r/CFB game threadThe alternate camera had the receivers whole ass foot out of bounds.r/CFB game thread
Q3 0:24SMU fans rage at bogus holding penalty on Knight punt returnQuick 70 yard penalty on a play where the Syracuse guy was holding our player, and the referee just guessed it was our guyr/CFB game thread
Q4 13:21Syracuse fans decry holding call and safety after Angeli throwAcc refs just doing their thing over and overr/CFB game threadThat's a really bad call. You can't touch the defender.r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:47SMU fans argue holding was missed on Jennings' incomplete pass to Melin ÖhrströmGREAT D 12! Awful ACC announcers give absolutely no credit just hating on the dropr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:27Syracuse scores a touchdown to take the lead with 27 seconds leftThe methodist money was no match for Big Ottor/CFB game thread
Q4 0:09Syracuse fans storm the field in Halloween costumes after beating SMUMfer said beatedr/CFB game thread

Syracuse’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (SMU -8.5), at 32% for Syracuse (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Syracuse or SMU flair (177 and 115); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Syracuse’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Syracuse scored on 6 of its 11 drives; SMU on 4 of its 12.

Syracuse’s drives are teal, SMU’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From SMU’s side

SMU’s best moment: Raphael 13-yd TD run, two-point try good, SMU goes ahead 27-20 (Q4 9:04). It lifted SMU’s win chance by 21 points.

How SMU fans took it: “Eh, GG. Well played, Orange” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Firestorm

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was firestorm; the crowd was steady.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Interesting that the phantom holding call benefits the 6-1 team.”

A fan of another team

Too close to call on 69% of plays. The winner fell to 6%.

What it cost

SMU’s chance to make the playoff fell from 22% to 14%.

Make the playoff

SMU · lost22% → ▼14%

Syracuse · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

SMU · lost19% → ▼13%

Syracuse · won0% → 0%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

SMU plays vs Virginia Tech on Fri Nov 6 with a 14% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Syracuse 30, SMU 27

Syracuse covered +8.5 by 11.5. The total, 57, stayed under 58.5.

Team totals	SMU	Syracuse
Total yards	421	338
Passing	29 of 37, 351 yds	21 of 34, 200 yds
Rushing	31 for 70 yds	37 for 138 yds
First downs	25	20
Third down	6 of 13	4 of 16
Fourth down	0 of 0	4 of 4
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	9 for 90 yds	7 for 50 yds
Time of possession	30:26	29:34

SMU leaders

Passing Kevin Jennings 29 of 36, 351 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Kendrick Raphael 14 for 51 yds, 1 TD; Christian Rhodes 3 for 22 yds
Receiving Yannick Smith 5 for 95 yds; Yamir Knight 6 for 80 yds, 1 TD

Syracuse leaders

Passing Steven Angeli 21 of 34, 200 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Ahmad Miller 18 for 56 yds, 1 TD; Tylik Hill 10 for 54 yds
Receiving Umari Hatcher 6 for 65 yds; Daunte Bacheyie 3 for 47 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

SMU · 6-1

Rated 15th in our preseason ratings, 27th now, down 12 spots.

Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 59-20 vs California No. 132 of 668 teams

won by 39 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 23-13 vs VirginiaTop 25 No. 60 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 10-point favorite

W 25-16 vs Boston College No. 124 of 668 teams

won by 9 as a 21.5-point favorite

W 34-24 vs Missouri State No. 102 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 30.5-point favorite

L 31-41 @ LouisvilleTop 25 No. 43 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 3-point underdog

W 56-10 vs UC Davis No. 102 of 668 teams

won by 46 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 27-24 @ Florida State No. 84 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Last three games

Syracuse · 3-4

Rated 143rd in our preseason ratings, 107th now, up 36 spots.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 1-point win over North Carolina as a 7.5-point underdog.

W 31-30 @ North Carolina No. 67 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 26-34 vs LouisvilleTop 25 No. 34 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 14.5-point underdog

L 25-28 @ VirginiaTop 25 No. 61 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 14-point underdog

W 42-41 @ UConn No. 108 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 6.5-point favorite

L 13-27 @ PittsburghTop 25 No. 51 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 10.5-point underdog

L 18-21 vs California No. 73 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 4-point favorite

W 66-3 vs New Hampshire No. 197 of 668 teams

won by 63 as a 35.5-point favorite

Week by week

Syracuse

Wk 3Lat Pittsburgh13-27
Wk 5Wat UConn42-41
Wk 6Lat Virginia25-28
Wk 7Lvs Louisville26-34
Wk 8Wat North Carolina31-30

SMU

Wk 3Lat Louisville31-41
Wk 4Wvs Missouri State34-24
Wk 5Wvs Boston College25-16
Wk 7Wvs Virginia23-13
Wk 8Wvs California59-20

Power rating by week

SMU is rated 9.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: SMU’s EPA/play against Syracuse, 48 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

SMU’s EPA/play against Syracuse’s defense
SMU offense, 89th percentile · Syracuse defense, 41st
SMU’s passing EPA against Syracuse’s defense
SMU offense, 97th percentile · Syracuse defense, 69th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

SMUSyracuse

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

SMU leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 1932 · SMU has won the last 2

2025SMU 31-18
1932SMU 16-6

Each line is Syracuse’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Syracuse fans are in a better mood than SMU fans (74th percentile vs 42nd among FBS fanbases), even with SMU favored.

SMU favored by 8.5 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

SMU by 8.5, on the usual path until 5:26 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Syracuse.

The total rose 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Syracuse is worth +3.6 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 38th percentile.

51% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (24-23 home, 16-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,322 miles to get here.

The story going in

Syracuse beats ranked team for first time since 2024Oct 31, 2026

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Syracuse17th1-4
SMU2nd4-1

Full ACC standings

Syracuse upsets No. 19 SMU 30-27