Austin Peay at North Alabama
Austin Peay (6‑2) travels to North Alabama (4‑3), with Austin Peay favored by 11.5. The model gives Austin Peay a 78% shot.
How they got here
Last three games
Austin Peay · 6-2
Rated 118th in our preseason ratings, 110th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
North Alabama · 4-3
Rated 207th in our preseason ratings, 174th now, up 33 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Eastern Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog.
W 20-16 @ Eastern Kentucky No. 191 of 668 teams
won by 4 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 23-20 vs Western Illinois No. 192 of 668 teams
won by 3 as a 7-point favorite
L 25-30 @ SE Louisiana No. 153 of 668 teams
lost by 5 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 22-10 vs Samford No. 236 of 668 teams
won by 12 as a 7-point favorite
What’s at stake
Austin Peay
- Austin Peay is 1 game back in UAC with 3 left to make it up.
- Austin Peay is coming off a 14-point win.
North Alabama
- North Alabama is 2 games back in UAC with 4 left to make it up.
- A win would be one of North Alabama’s biggest of the season — a 64-spot gap in the power ratings.
The series
Austin Peay leads the series 4-0
4 meetings since 2022 · Austin Peay has won the last 4
- 2025Austin Peay 56-28
- 2024Austin Peay 31-17
- 2023Austin Peay 49-39
- 2022Austin Peay 38-35
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Austin Peay
The chipFor most of its history, Austin Peay was the program other Ohio Valley Conference and UAC schools penciled in as a likely win. The chip isn't about a single rival program -- it's about being overlooked entirely. The 2019 playoff breakthrough, the 2022 and 2023 conference titles, and especially the 2025 FBS win were each, in their own year, a rebuttal to that assumption.
What this game touches
The 38-year FBS drought (1987-2025). Austin Peay's first win over an FBS opponent came in 1987, against Kansas State. The program did not beat another FBS team for 38 years -- every season in between, the drought was the go-to talking point about Governors football's ceiling. It ended on August 30, 2025, when Austin Peay routed Middle Tennessee 34-14, the program's second FBS win ever.
North Alabama
The chip · vs the blue bloodsFans here believe the chip is uncertain: North Alabama was told reclassification would make them relevant, that FCS legitimacy was worth the transition. Three years later, a 2–10 season suggests the move was the wrong choice.
What this game touches
The 2–10 2025 season — and the realization that D-II success didn't translate. North Alabama moved to FCS/ASUN in 2022 with the belief that reclassification would elevate the program. Three years in, the Lions went 2–10 (1–7 UAC) in 2025 — the deepest losing season since transition, playing their final game at Braly Municipal Stadium before relocating to a new home.
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on North Alabama’s chances here.
Austin Peay favored by 11.5 · Total 49.5
Austin Peay by 11.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Austin Peay’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 388 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Home field
North Alabama is worth +11.7 points (±4.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 0-13 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.7 at home vs. away over 43 games — inside the ±9.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 121 miles to get here.
Week by week
North Alabama
- Wk 2Lat SE Louisiana25-30
- Wk 3Wvs Alcorn State38-20
- Wk 4Wvs Western Illinois23-20
- Wk 5Wat Eastern Kentucky20-16
- Wk 7Lvs Abilene Christian28-31
Austin Peay
- Wk 3Wat West Florida38-16
- Wk 4Wvs UT Martin35-12
- Wk 5Wvs New Haven42-17
- Wk 6Lvs Tarleton State32-40
- Wk 7Wat West Georgia24-10
Power rating by week
Austin Peay is rated 5.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- North Alabama4th1-1
- Austin Peay3rd2-1