California 21-18 Syracuse (Sep 12, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: California · Syracuse

California1-121

Syracuse1-118Final

Sat, Sep 12 · JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, N.Y. · Crowd 36,031

California beat Syracuse 21-18 after its win chance fell to 8%.

Winners have been down to 8% or less in about 1 of every 15 games since 2018.

We had Syracuse favored. California won.

Next: California beat Wagner 49-7, Sat Sep 19

Next: Syracuse lost to Pittsburgh 27-13, Thu Sep 17

Top comment in the game thread

What? the ball not touched means it IS a penalty!

Q2 0:22 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Lopa 0-yd interception return TD, California goes ahead 21-18 (Q4, 4:51). California went from 22% to 57% to win. Fans right then: “Angeli was trying to turn one over for the last three drives and he finally achieved it.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave California a 43% chance, and the closing betting line (California was a 4-point underdog) put it at 37%.

Pick-six

California · Q4 4:51

FinalCalifornia 21-18 SyracuseCalifornia wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The three plays that swung it

1Q4 4:51InterceptionLopa 0-yd interception return TD, California goes ahead 21-18California 22% → 57% (+35)
2Q4 2:00Angeli 25-yd pass to Ross-SimmonsCalifornia 66% → 42% (−24)
3Q4 1:35Woody 46-yd field goal no goodCalifornia 62% → 87% (+25)

The three plays that swung it

1Q4 4:51InterceptionLopa 0-yd interception return TD, California goes ahead 21-18Syracuse 78% → 43% (−35)
2Q4 2:00Angeli 25-yd pass to Ross-SimmonsSyracuse 35% → 58% (+23)
3Q4 1:35Woody 46-yd field goal no goodSyracuse 38% → 13% (−25)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 11:16Cal fans rip Tosh after McGough misses 46-yard field goalI would be more surprised if we made the field goal.r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:22Fans rage at illegal block penalty on Syracuse punt returnQuoted at the top of the page.How is it a blindsided block if THEY'RE FACING EACH OTHERr/CFB game thread
Q4 13:15Fans argue a roughing the passer penalty on Angeli's pass was a bad callangeli is dead gollyr/CFB game thread
Q4 11:36Officials review and uphold a 12-men penalty on Syracuse during Angeli's driveDidn’t know you could review penaltiesr/CFB game threadThe acc operations center talking to the refs like they're toddlers lmaor/CFB game thread
Q4 5:30Lopa intercepts Angeli, Cal takes 21-18 lead with 5:30 leftAngeli was trying to turn one over for the last three drives and he finally achieved it.r/CFB game threadAngeli and the offense suckr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:40Syracuse fans leave early, prompting Cal fans to mock their premature departureThis game is far from over.r/CFB game thread
Q4 0:54Angeli's interception by Lopa seals Cal's win as fans mock both teamsSteve Angeli can't be the starter going forward. He single handedly lost the gamer/CFB game thread

California’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Syracuse -4), at 30% for California (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Syracuse or California flair (402 and 682); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show California’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

California scored on 2 of its 12 drives; Syracuse on 4 of its 13.

California’s drives are teal, Syracuse’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Syracuse’s side

Syracuse’s best moment: Angeli 25-yd pass to Ross-Simmons (Q4 2:00). It lifted Syracuse’s win chance by 23 points.

How Syracuse fans took it: “Gotta be the worst football game I've ever seen in my life. Shout out to the sickos who watched the whole thing with us in here” r/CFB game thread

“That _may_ have just prevented JKS from setting the FBS record for most 200+ yard passing games to start a college career.”

A California fan

When fans got loud

Busy

It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Syracuse fans

angeli“Steve Angeli can't be the starter going forward. He single handedly lost the game”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, now, back, field.

The winner fell to 8%.

What it cost

Syracuse’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

California · won0% → 0%

Syracuse · lost1% → ▼0%

Win the conference

California · won0% → 0%

Syracuse · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

California 21, Syracuse 18

California covered +4 by 7. The total, 39, stayed under 56.5.

Team totals	California	Syracuse
Total yards	249	436
Passing	21 of 34, 182 yds	25 of 50, 318 yds
Rushing	26 for 67 yds	36 for 118 yds
First downs	16	27
Third down	3 of 12	7 of 17
Fourth down	0 of 1	1 of 1
Turnovers	0	3
Penalties	9 for 87 yds	15 for 132 yds
Time of possession	25:50	34:10

California leaders

Passing Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 21 of 34, 182 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Adam Mohammed 19 for 74 yds; Ashten Emory 2 for 1 yds
Receiving Ian Strong 3 for 64 yds; Mason Mini 2 for 38 yds

Syracuse leaders

Passing Steven Angeli 24 of 49, 306 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
Rushing Tylik Hill 2 for 56 yds; Ju'Juan Johnson 15 for 46 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Justus Ross-Simmons 6 for 105 yds; Umari Hatcher 6 for 77 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

California · 7-6

Rated 63rd in our preseason ratings, 63rd now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over SMU as a 13.5-point underdog.

L 31-35 @ Hawai'i #117 of 667

lost by 4 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 38-35 vs SMUTop 25 #11 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 10-31 @ Stanford #95 of 667

lost by 21 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 29-26 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #35 of 667

won by 3 as an 18.5-point underdog

L 21-31 vs VirginiaTop 25 #42 of 667

lost by 10 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 34-42 @ Virginia Tech #74 of 667

lost by 8 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 21-18 vs North Carolina #90 of 667

won by 3 as an 8.5-point favorite

L 21-45 vs Duke #37 of 667

lost by 24 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 28-24 @ Boston College #64 of 667

won by 4 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 0-34 @ San Diego State #94 of 667

lost by 34 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 27-14 vs Minnesota #24 of 667

won by 13 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 35-3 vs Texas Southern #219 of 667

won by 32 as a 44.5-point favorite

W 34-15 @ Oregon State #80 of 667

won by 19 as a 2.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Syracuse · 3-9

Rated 143rd in our preseason ratings, 133rd now.

Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.

L 12-34 vs Boston College #99 of 667

lost by 22 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 7-70 @ Notre DameTop 25 #2 of 667

lost by 63 as a 36.5-point underdog

L 10-38 @ MiamiTop 25 #9 of 667

lost by 28 as a 28.5-point underdog

L 10-27 vs North Carolina #68 of 667

lost by 17 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 16-41 @ Georgia TechTop 25 #28 of 667

lost by 25 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 13-30 vs PittsburghTop 25 #40 of 667

lost by 17 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 18-31 @ SMUTop 25 #27 of 667

lost by 13 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 3-38 vs Duke #48 of 667

lost by 35 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 34-21 @ ClemsonTop 25 #22 of 667

won by 13 as a 17.5-point underdog

W 66-24 vs Colgate #241 of 667

won by 42 as a 37.5-point favorite

W 27-20 vs UConn #70 of 667

won by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 26-45 @ TennesseeTop 25 #10 of 667

lost by 19 as a 13.5-point underdog

Week by week

Syracuse

Wk 1Wvs New Hampshire66-3

California

Wk 1Lvs UCLA24-45

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Syracuse’s explosive plays against California, 68 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Syracuse’s explosive plays against California’s defense
Syracuse offense, 71st percentile · California defense, 3rd
California’s passing EPA against Syracuse’s defense
California offense, 21st percentile · Syracuse defense, 86th
California’s EPA/play against Syracuse’s defense
California offense, 11th percentile · Syracuse defense, 59th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

CaliforniaSyracuse

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Syracuse leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 1967 · Syracuse won the last meeting

2024Syracuse 33-25
1968California 43-0
1967Syracuse 20-14

Each line is Syracuse’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Syracuse fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (16th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Syracuse favored by 4 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

Syracuse by 4, on the usual path until 0:54 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 5.5 points toward Syracuse.

The total rose 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Syracuse is worth +3.6 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 41st percentile.

50% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (23-23 home, 15-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 2,420 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Syracuse12th0-0
California13th0-0

Full ACC standings

California beats Syracuse 21-18