BYU 17-10 TCU (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: BYU · TCU

No. 10 BYU4-017

TCU2-310Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas · Crowd 38,327

No. 10 BYU beat TCU 17-10.

We had BYU favored. It won.

Next: BYU beat Iowa State 24-10, Fri Oct 9

Next: TCU beat Baylor 17-6, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

This is some of the worst play calling and offensive line play have I ever seen

Q4 12:07 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: Craig intercepted by Satuala at the BYU 25, returned 59 yards (Q2, 10:49). BYU went from 51% to 69% to win. Fans right then: “AIR BACHMEIER” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave BYU a 73% chance, and the closing betting line (BYU was a 5.5-point favorite) put it at 67%.

A tight one: BYU bottomed out at 49% and won.

TCU never had better than a 51% chance.

FinalBYU 17-10 TCUBYU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 10:49Interception4th and 4Craig intercepted by Satuala at the BYU 25, returned 59 yardsBYU 51% → 69% (+18)
2Q2 0:27Craig 13-yd TD pass to Ashley, ties it 7-7BYU 71% → 56% (−15)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 10:49Interception4th and 4Craig intercepted by Satuala at the BYU 25, returned 59 yardsTCU 49% → 31% (−18)
2Q2 0:27Craig 13-yd TD pass to Ashley, ties it 7-7TCU 29% → 44% (+15)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 8:00Bachmeier runs for a touchdown as BYU fans celebrate his heroicsAIR BACHMEIERr/CFB game threadAIR Bachmeier!r/CFB game thread
Q4 12:07BYU fans rip A-Rod for calling option plays on third and longQuoted at the top of the page.3RD AND 11 LETS RUN SPEED OPTION OH YEAHr/CFB game thread
Q4 8:39TCU kicker misses 46-yard field goal as BYU leads 10-7Playing it safe for a 45 yard FG is the losing mentality I came to watch!r/CFB game threadNot every day you see a kick short from less than 50r/CFB game thread
Q4 2:06A player nicknamed Bear scored a touchdown.thank god for bear man.r/CFB game thread

BYU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (BYU -5.5), at 58% for BYU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a TCU or BYU flair (124 and 1,098); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show BYU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

BYU scored on 3 of its 11 drives; TCU on 2 of its 10.

BYU’s drives are teal, TCU’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From TCU’s side

TCU’s best moment: Craig 13-yd TD pass to Ashley, ties it 7-7 (Q2 0:27). It lifted TCU’s win chance by 15 points.

How TCU fans took it: “Just disappointing” r/CFB game thread

“Zooming into the medical tent seems unseemly”

A BYU fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans peaked right at the end.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

TCU fans

craig“Jaden Craig was sold as never turning it over and he throws the dumbest picks I've ever seen”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now.

Too close to call on 51% of plays.

What it cost

BYU’s chance to make the playoff rose from 18% to 23%.

Make the playoff

BYU · won18% → ▲23%

TCU · lost2% → ▼1%

Win the conference

BYU · won16% → ▲20%

TCU · lost2% → ▼0%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

BYU 17, TCU 10

BYU covered −5.5 by 1.5. The total, 27, stayed under 48.5.

Team totals	BYU	TCU
Total yards	216	259
Passing	11 of 24, 62 yds	18 of 25, 187 yds
Rushing	38 for 154 yds	30 for 72 yds
First downs	15	14
Third down	8 of 16	4 of 13
Fourth down	0 of 1	0 of 1
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	7 for 40 yds	3 for 30 yds
Time of possession	32:57	27:03

BYU leaders

Passing Bear Bachmeier 11 of 24, 62 yds
Rushing Bear Bachmeier 15 for 66 yds, 2 TD; Journee Tonga 7 for 28 yds
Receiving Kyler Kasper 2 for 22 yds; Preston Rex 2 for 12 yds

TCU leaders

Passing Jaden Craig 18 of 25, 187 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Jeremy Payne 14 for 77 yds; Jon Denman 7 for 19 yds
Receiving Kari Ashley 6 for 108 yds, 1 TD; Ed Small 4 for 32 yds

No rain through the game

72° at kickoff · 0.01 in of rain by radar over the stadium

The usual here around this date is 81°, with about 7 in 10 games between 70° and 89°.

October game-day temperatures at Amon G. Carter Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 10:49 left6:47 p.m.

BYU 0, TCU 0 · TCU 31% to win

no rain · 72°

Craig intercepted by Satuala at the BYU 25, returned 59 yards

Measured at Fort Worth Nas airport, 6.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

BYU · 3-0

Rated 9th in our preseason ratings, 7th now.

Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 41-23 @ Colorado State #76 of 668

won by 18 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 28-17 vs ArizonaTop 25 #27 of 668

won by 11 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 63-7 vs Utah Tech #224 of 668

won by 56 as a 50.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

TCU · 2-2

Rated 49th in our preseason ratings, 49th now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 13-21 @ UCF #80 of 668

lost by 8 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 31-7 vs Arkansas State #151 of 668

won by 24 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 63-7 vs Grambling #184 of 668

won by 56 as a 44.5-point favorite

L 10-15 vs North Carolina #127 of 668

lost by 5 as a 7.5-point favorite

Week by week

TCU

Wk 1Lvs North Carolina10-15
Wk 2Wvs Grambling63-7
Wk 3Wvs Arkansas State31-7
Wk 4Lat UCF13-21

BYU

Wk 1Wvs Utah Tech63-7
Wk 2Wvs Arizona28-17
Wk 3Wat Colorado State41-23

Power rating by week

BYU is rated 7.6 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: TCU’s rushing EPA against BYU, 62 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

TCU’s rushing EPA against BYU’s defense
TCU offense, 9th percentile · BYU defense, 71st
BYU’s explosive plays against TCU’s defense
BYU offense, 30th percentile · TCU defense, 80th
TCU’s EPA/play against BYU’s defense
TCU offense, 33rd percentile · BYU defense, 74th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

BYUTCU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

TCU leads the series 7-6

13 meetings since 1987 · BYU won the last meeting

2025BYU 44-13
2023TCU 44-11
2011 · neutral siteTCU 38-28
2010TCU 31-3
2009TCU 38-7

Each line is TCU’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

BYU fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (72nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

BYU favored by 5.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

BYU by 5.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The total fell 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 75° at kickoff.

BYU at TCU · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth

75°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
100weather score, Ideal

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Amon G. Carter Stadium that day, a 11 am kickoff would have scored 99, against 100 at 6 pm.

11 am: 99, Comfortable
2:30 pm: 100, Ideal
3:15 pm: 100, Ideal
6 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
6:45 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

TCU is worth +4.7 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 61st percentile.

60% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (27-18 home, 22-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 948 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

TCU13th0-1
BYU6th1-0

Full Big 12 standings

No. 10 BYU beats TCU 17-10