SMU 25-16 Boston College (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Boston College · SMU

Boston College2-316

No. 21 SMU4-125Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, Texas · Crowd 27,942

No. 21 SMU beat Boston College 25-16.

We had SMU favored. It won.

Next: Boston College beat Pittsburgh 27-21, Sat Oct 17

Next: SMU beat Virginia 23-13, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

What is wrong with these announcers eyes, good play but in what world is that a touchdown

Q3 7:57 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave SMU a 93% chance, and the closing betting line (SMU was a 21.5-point favorite) put it at 96%.

Favored the whole way: SMU never fell below 86%.

Boston College never had better than a 14% chance.

FinalSMU 25-16 Boston CollegeSMU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.10 in of rain

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 7:57Fans mock announcers for calling a one-yard loss a touchdownQuoted at the top of the page.Announcer might be drunk lmao.r/CFB game thread
Q3 2:23Boston College commits three straight holding penalties on consecutive downsballard ate him aliver/CFB game thread
Q4 13:29Boston College fans lament their team's persistent struggles and sloppy broadcast during a stalled driveI've never seen a worse tight end room.r/CFB game thread

SMU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (SMU -21.5), at 96% for SMU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a SMU or Boston College flair (77 and 74); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.2 in of rain by radar over the stadium, heaviest in the first quarter. Measured at Dallas/love Field, 4.1 miles away. Full conditions below.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show SMU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

SMU scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Boston College on 3 of its 10.

SMU’s drives are teal, Boston College’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“I've never seen a worse tight end room.”

A Boston College fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The fourth quarter is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“lol they think BC had any "hope" to begin with”

A fan of another team

What it cost

SMU’s chance to make the playoff rose from 12% to 13%.

Make the playoff

Boston College · lost0% → 0%

SMU · won12% → ▲13%

Win the conference

Boston College · lost0% → 0%

SMU · won11% → ▲12%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

SMU 25, Boston College 16

Boston College covered +21.5 by 12.5. The total, 41, stayed under 55.5.

Team totals	Boston College	SMU
Total yards	322	218
Passing	20 of 32, 208 yds	20 of 30, 160 yds
Rushing	33 for 114 yds	32 for 58 yds
First downs	19	21
Third down	7 of 16	7 of 14
Fourth down	1 of 3	0 of 0
Turnovers	1	0
Penalties	11 for 95 yds	7 for 74 yds
Time of possession	33:05	26:55

Boston College leaders

Passing Mason McKenzie 20 of 31, 208 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Mason McKenzie 21 for 74 yds; Evan Dickens 5 for 22 yds
Receiving Evan Dickens 3 for 45 yds, 1 TD; Javarius Green 5 for 37 yds

SMU leaders

Passing Kevin Jennings 20 of 30, 160 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Kendrick Raphael 15 for 45 yds, 1 TD; Derrick McFall 5 for 23 yds
Receiving Jalen Cooper 5 for 45 yds; Derrick McFall 3 for 33 yds, 1 TD

Rain through most of the game

73° at kickoff · 0.2 in of rain by radar over the stadium

October game-day temperatures at Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:52 left11:11 a.m.

Boston College 0, SMU 0 · SMU 96% to win

rain 0.01 in per 10 minutes · 73°

Jennings 12-yd pass to McFall; unnecessary roughness on Boston College

Measured at Dallas/love Field, 4.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Boston College · 2-2

Rated 130th in our preseason ratings, 138th now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 14-21 vs Virginia Tech #45 of 668

lost by 7 as a 14.5-point underdog

W 22-16 vs Maine #215 of 668

won by 6 as a 37.5-point favorite

W 28-21 vs Rutgers #88 of 668

won by 7 as a 3-point favorite

L 15-34 @ Cincinnati #110 of 668

lost by 19 as a 7-point underdog

Last 4 games

SMU · 3-1

Rated 15th in our preseason ratings, 18th now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 34-24 vs Missouri State #102 of 668

won by 10 as a 30.5-point favorite

L 31-41 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #43 of 668

lost by 10 as a 3-point underdog

W 56-10 vs UC Davis #102 of 668

won by 46 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 27-24 @ Florida State #84 of 668

won by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Week by week

SMU

Wk 1Wat Florida State27-24
Wk 2Wvs UC Davis56-10
Wk 3Lat Louisville31-41
Wk 4Wvs Missouri State34-24

Boston College

Wk 1Lat Cincinnati15-34
Wk 2Wvs Rutgers28-21
Wk 3Wvs Maine22-16
Wk 4Lvs Virginia Tech14-21

Power rating by week

SMU is rated 12.5 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Boston College’s success rate against SMU, 50 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

SMU’s passing EPA against Boston College’s defense
SMU offense, 89th percentile · Boston College defense, 41st
Boston College’s success rate against SMU’s defense
Boston College offense, 18th percentile · SMU defense, 68th
Boston College’s explosive plays against SMU’s defense
Boston College offense, 76th percentile · SMU defense, 33rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Boston CollegeSMU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

SMU leads the series 3-1

4 meetings since 1986 · SMU has won the last 2

2025SMU 45-13
2024SMU 38-28
2023 · neutral siteBoston College 23-14
1986SMU 31-29

Each line is SMU’s chance to win through that meeting. SMU is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Boston College fans are in a better mood than SMU fans (44th vs 19th among FBS fanbases), even with SMU favored.

SMU favored by 21.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

SMU by 21.5: the game against the usual path

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward SMU.

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm, with rain. Feels like 77° at kickoff.

Boston College at SMU · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park

77°feels like at kickoff
0.10 inrain at kickoff
84weather score, Mixed
Roughestof the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At Gerald J. Ford Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 84 at 11 am.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

11 am: 84, Mixed (this game)
2:30 pm: 89, Mixed
3:15 pm: 88, Mixed
6 pm: 98, Comfortable
6:45 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

SMU is worth +5.5 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 73rd percentile.

79% at home, 58% on the road against FBS opponents (34-9 home, 30-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.7 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,540 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Boston College 23, SMU 14Wasabi Fenway Bowl · Dec 28, 2023

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

SMU6th1-1
Boston College16th0-1

Full ACC standings

No. 21 SMU beats Boston College 25-16