Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ohio State a 98% chance, and the closing betting line (Ohio State was a 31.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.
Ohio State led by 11 after the first quarter and by 21 at the half.
Pick-sixMaryland · Q3 5:12
FinalOhio State 45-16 MarylandOhio State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.08 in of rain
FinalMaryland 16-45 Ohio StateMaryland lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.08 in of rain
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 6:24Zion Elee sacks Sayin, forcing a fumble recovered by MarylandSayin wtf was that lolr/CFB game thread
Q1 3:03Ohio State fans celebrate Roberts' touchdown catch from SayinRoberts looked like a full blown wide receiver on that.r/CFB game threadSayin can throw to other receivers?r/CFB game thread
Q2 11:23Ohio State fans rage as penalties gift Maryland a touchdownWorst defensive drive of the season, and I'm not forgetting the second half vs. Texas. Getting beat is one thing, just gifting them a touchdown is inexcusable.r/CFB game thread
Q2 11:18Sayin throws to Smith for a touchdown as fans praise his speedQuoted at the top of the page.People genuinely do not talk enough about how fast Jeremiah Smith is. Sayin has a tendency to under throw him in traffic. When he has the ball with space in front of him, dude…r/CFB game thread
Q2 7:34Maryland declines a running into the kicker penalty after Sayin's deep pass to HenryOhio State: oh yeah, we have Chris Henry Jr Rest of CFB: you have another one?!??!!!r/CFB game threadJulian underthrowing a fade is going to cost us dearly at some point this season when we have to settle for a field goalr/CFB game thread
Q2 5:55Maryland runs a fake punt on fourth down, prompting fans to call for Locksley's firing> Declines a running into the kicker to turn 4th and 9 into 4th and 4 > Runs a fake punt on 4th and 10 Can see why they want Locksley firedr/CFB game threadLocksley looks like he’s ready to concede already. Yes, fake punt is an aggressive call but his response??r/CFB game thread
Q2 2:00A player made an incredible catch.Damn, what a catch!!!r/CFB game thread
Ohio State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Ohio State -31.5), at 98% for Ohio State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Ohio State or Maryland flair (1,659 and 246); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.08 in of rain, heaviest in the second quarter. Measured at Columbus/st Univ airport, 6.3 miles away. Full conditions below.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Ohio State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.
“Worst defensive drive of the season, and I'm not forgetting the second half vs. Texas. Getting beat is one thing, just gifting them a touchdown is inexcusable.”
An Ohio State fan
Two crowds, one game
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Maryland fans
locksley“Leave Locksley at the Burger King on 5th Ave. Columbus residents- iykyk”
fire“Yes, let's not cover their best player. Can we please fire the entire athletic department administration?”
coach“Then I beg you. Please, donate to us to help buy out our coach. I genuinely am begging. Please.”
staff“Not a single staff member should be brought home, leave all of them in the shoe”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, back, throw, don.
What it cost
Ohio State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 72% to 74%.
Make the playoff
Maryland · lost0% → 0%
Ohio State · won72% → ▲74%
Win the conference
Maryland · lost0% → 0%
Ohio State · won38% → ▲40%
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Ohio State 45, Maryland 16
Maryland covered +31.5 by 2.5. The total, 61, went over 56.5.
Team totals
Maryland
Ohio State
Total yards
146
449
Passing
12 of 25, 64 yds
13 of 21, 242 yds
Rushing
28 for 82 yds
48 for 207 yds
First downs
10
24
Third down
3 of 12
5 of 13
Fourth down
0 of 1
3 of 3
Turnovers
0
2
Penalties
7 for 60 yds
8 for 65 yds
Time of possession
25:21
34:39
Maryland leaders
Passing Malik Washington 12 of 25, 64 yds
Rushing DeJuan Williams 16 for 48 yds; Malik Washington 5 for 19 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Chris Durr Jr. 4 for 15 yds; Kaleb Webb 2 for 14 yds
Ohio State leaders
Passing Julian Sayin 13 of 21, 242 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Bo Jackson 23 for 107 yds, 2 TD; Ja'Kobi Jackson 14 for 76 yds
Receiving Jeremiah Smith 4 for 93 yds, 2 TD; Nate Roberts 1 for 68 yds, 1 TD
Rain for part of the game
65° at kickoff · 0.08 in of rain · wind 7 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 14
Sayin 68-yd TD pass to Roberts, Ohio State leads 14-3
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Columbus/st Univ airport, 6.3 miles away, and Columbus airport, 7.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Maryland · 2-3
Rated 76th in our preseason ratings, 97th now, down 21 spots.
Ohio State is rated 16.3 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Maryland’s passing EPA against Ohio State, 81 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Maryland’s EPA/play against Ohio State’s defense
Maryland offense, 18th percentile · Ohio State defense, 95th
Maryland’s passing EPA against Ohio State’s defense
Maryland offense, 8th percentile · Ohio State defense, 89th
Maryland’s explosive plays against Ohio State’s defense
Maryland offense, 55th percentile · Ohio State defense, 79th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
MarylandOhio State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Ohio State leads the series 9-0
9 meetings since 2014 · Ohio State has won the last 9
2023Ohio State 37-17
2022Ohio State 43-30
2021Ohio State 66-17
2019Ohio State 73-14
2018Ohio State 52-51
Each line is Ohio State’s chance to win through that meeting. Ohio State is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Ohio State fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (59th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Ohio State favored by 31.5 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
Ohio State by 31.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Maryland.
Spread: −34.5 → −31.5
Home field
Ohio State is worth +6.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 86th percentile.
95% at home, 86% on the road against FBS opponents (53-3 home, 32-5 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.6 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Maryland · Q3 5:12
Ohio State 45-16 Maryland