UConn beats Temple 34-20

UConn3-334
Temple2-420Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa. · Crowd 21,112ESPNU

UConn beat Temple 34-20.

We had Temple favored. UConn won.

Next: UConn vs Massachusetts, Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET · UConn favored by 14.5

Next: Temple lost to Charlotte 38-31, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Sheppard 79-yd TD pass to Bermudez, ties it 7-7 (Q1, 12:28). UConn went from 64% to 35% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UConn a 33% chance, and the closing betting line (UConn was a 3.5-point underdog) put it at 39%.

UConn won by 14, after dipping to 27% in the second quarter.

Up to 73% in the second quarter, then Temple lost it.

79-yard TD passTemple · Q1 12:28
FinalUConn 34-20 TempleUConn wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q464% at halfUConnTempleLowest 27%Won34-201234+20−29+20+24Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q464% at halfUConnTempleLowest 27%Won34-201234Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q436% at halfTempleUConnLowest 0%High 73%Lost20-341234−20+29−20−24Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q436% at halfTempleUConnLowest 0%High 73%Lost20-341234Scores

The four plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:43Osborne 12-yd TD run, UConn goes ahead 7-0UConn 44% → 64% (+20)
  2. 2Q1 12:28Sheppard 79-yd TD pass to Bermudez, ties it 7-7UConn 64% → 35% (−29)
  3. 3Q2 5:55Cornist 1-yd TD run, UConn goes ahead 21-17UConn 35% → 55% (+20)
  4. 4Q4 7:52Bowers 8-yd TD run, UConn leads 31-20UConn 69% → 93% (+24)

The four plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:43Osborne 12-yd TD run, UConn goes ahead 7-0Temple 56% → 36% (−20)
  2. 2Q1 12:28Sheppard 79-yd TD pass to Bermudez, ties it 7-7Temple 36% → 65% (+29)
  3. 3Q2 5:55Cornist 1-yd TD run, UConn goes ahead 21-17Temple 65% → 45% (−20)
  4. 4Q4 7:52Bowers 8-yd TD run, UConn leads 31-20Temple 31% → 7% (−24)
UConn’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Temple -3.5), at 32% for UConn (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

UConn scored on 6 of its 10 drives; Temple on 4 of its 10.

UConn’s drives are teal, Temple’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1UConn: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownUConn: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownUConn: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 10DownsTemple: Field goal, from 90 yards out to 8Field goalQ2UConn: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 22FumbleUConn: Field goal, from 78 yards out to 3Field goalQ3Temple: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntUConn: Punt, from 66 yards out to 65PuntTemple: Punt, from 69 yards out to 48PuntUConn: Punt, from 89 yards out to 75PuntTemple: Field goal, from 72 yards out to 11Field goalUConn: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntTemple: Fumble, from 78 yards out to 38FumbleQ4UConn: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownTemple: Punt, from 75 yards out to 79PuntUConn: Field goal, from 57 yards out to 9Field goalTemple: End of game, from 75 yards out to 30End of game

From Temple’s side

Temple’s best moment: Sheppard 79-yd TD pass to Bermudez, ties it 7-7 (Q1 12:28). It lifted Temple’s win chance by 29 points.

“Looking like a football team last few minutes”
A UConn fan

When fans got loud

Roaring

Fans were loudest early, in the first quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthUConn fansTemple fansusual

Too close to call on 60% of plays.

Box score

UConn 34, Temple 20

UConn covered +3.5 by 17.5. The total, 54, stayed under 55.5.

UConnTempleTotal yardsUConn 505Temple 437505437Passing yardsUConn 257Temple 289257289Rushing yardsUConn 248Temple 148248148First downsUConn 23Temple 212321TurnoversUConn 0Temple 202Time of possessionUConn 28:58Temple 31:0228:5831:02
Team totalsUConnTemple
Total yards505437
Passing17 of 24, 257 yds20 of 26, 289 yds
Rushing39 for 248 yds34 for 148 yds
First downs2321
Third down5 of 125 of 12
Fourth down1 of 20 of 0
Turnovers02
Penalties8 for 65 yds4 for 29 yds
Time of possession28:5831:02

UConn leaders

  • Passing Kalieb Osborne 17 of 23, 257 yds
  • Rushing Trey Cornist 7 for 114 yds, 1 TD; Cyncir Bowers 18 for 84 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Ryder Treadway 3 for 63 yds; Shamar Porter 2 for 39 yds

Temple leaders

  • Passing Ajani Sheppard 19 of 25, 260 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Keveun Mason 13 for 88 yds; Ajani Sheppard 12 for 27 yds
  • Receiving Jovanni Bermudez 2 for 96 yds, 1 TD; Peter Clarke 5 for 88 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

74° at kickoff · 0.00 to 0.5 in of rain at two airports · wind 7 mph from the southeast, gusts to 14

October game-day temperatures at Lincoln Financial Field

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Temple favoredUConn favored0%Win chanceTempleRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Temple favoredUConn favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 12:28 left3:58 p.m.
UConn 7, Temple 7 · Temple 65% to win
no rain · wind 7 mph from the southeast · 74°
Sheppard 79-yd TD pass to Bermudez, ties it 7-7

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Philadelphia International airport, 3.7 miles away, and Philadelphia Ne airport, 15 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

UConn · 2-3

Rated 128th in our preseason ratings, 108th now, up 20 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Last three games

Temple · 2-3

Rated 90th in our preseason ratings, 81st now.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 4-point win over South Florida as a 5.5-point underdog.

Week by week

Temple

Wk 1: W 38-14 vs Rhode Island▲24Rhode Is…Wk 2: L 9-27 vs Penn State▼18Penn St.Wk 3: L 48-49 at Toledo▼1ToledoWk 4: L 17-21 vs Army▼4ArmyWk 5: W 17-13 at South Florida▲4S. Flori…
  • Wk 1Wvs Rhode Island38-14
  • Wk 2Lvs Penn State9-27
  • Wk 3Lat Toledo48-49
  • Wk 4Lvs Army17-21
  • Wk 5Wat South Florida17-13

UConn

Wk 1: W 56-7 vs Lafayette▲49LafayetteWk 2: L 14-38 vs Maryland▼24MarylandWk 3: W 48-20 at Southern Miss▲28S. MissWk 4: L 21-24 at Miami (OH)▼3M. (OH)Wk 5: L 41-42 vs Syracuse▼1Syracuse
  • Wk 1Wvs Lafayette56-7
  • Wk 2Lvs Maryland14-38
  • Wk 3Wat Southern Miss48-20
  • Wk 4Lat Miami (OH)21-24
  • Wk 5Lvs Syracuse41-42

Power rating by week

Temple is rated 2.1 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

0-3-6Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5TempleUConn

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UConn’s EPA/play against Temple, 56 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. UConn’s EPA/play against Temple’s defense

    56 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UConn offense, 70th percentile · Temple defense, 14th

  2. UConn’s passing EPA against Temple’s defense

    53 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UConn offense, 69th percentile · Temple defense, 16th

  3. UConn’s explosive plays against Temple’s defense

    27 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UConn offense, 91st percentile · Temple defense, 64th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UConnTemple
EPA/play, offense
UConn · 70Temple · 65
EPA/play, defense
UConn · 50Temple · 14
Success rate, offense
UConn · 56Temple · 48
Success rate, defense
UConn · 32Temple · 11
Explosive-play rate, offense
UConn · 91Temple · 61
Explosive-play rate, defense
UConn · 67Temple · 64
Rush EPA, offense
UConn · 79Temple · 78
Rush EPA, defense
UConn · 66Temple · 26
Pass EPA, offense
UConn · 69Temple · 48
Pass EPA, defense
UConn · 30Temple · 16

The series

Temple leads the series 10-6

16 meetings since 1971 · UConn won the last meeting

Temple wonUConn won1971: Temple by 382001: Temple by 492002: Temple by 142004: UConn by 142007: UConn by 52008: UConn by 32010: Temple by 142012: Temple by 32013: UConn by 72014: Temple by 262015: Temple by 242016: Temple by 212017: UConn by 42018: Temple by 502019: Temple by 322024: UConn by 919712024
  • 2024UConn 29-20Temple lost 20-29 at UConn. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 64%.
  • 2019Temple 49-17Temple won 49-17 vs UConn. Chance to win started at 96%, low 64%, high better than 99%.
  • 2018Temple 57-7Temple won 57-7 at UConn. Chance to win started at 95%, low 95%, high better than 99%.
  • 2017UConn 28-24
  • 2016Temple 21-0

Each line is Temple’s chance to win through that meeting. Temple is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

UConn fans are in a better mood than Temple fans (42nd vs 17th among FBS fanbases), even with Temple favored.

50-50Model 67% · Line 61%Temple fans · 17thUConn fans · 42ndUConnTemple

Temple favored by 3.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Temple by 3.5, on the usual path until 9:22 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The total rose 1 point.

opened 54.5now 55.5

Total: 54.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Temple is worth +3.0 points (±4.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 29th percentile.

41% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (19-27 home, 11-34 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.1 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 185 miles to get here.

Where next