Louisville 34-26 Syracuse (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Louisville · Syracuse

Louisville4-334

Syracuse2-426Final

Sat, Oct 17 · JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, N.Y. · Crowd 39,293

Louisville beat Syracuse 34-26.

We had Louisville favored. It won.

Next: Louisville vs Stanford, Sat Oct 31

Next: Syracuse at North Carolina, Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Syracuse underdog by 7.5

Top comment in the game thread

Here, you can have the ball. No, no. We insist, you take it. No, *we* insist that you take it!

Q3 5:35 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Nelson intercepted by White at the Louisville 36 (Q4, 10:16). Louisville went from 65% to 81% to win. Fans right then: “Why was the most energized call by the commentator team today for a missed PAT” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisville a 74% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisville was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.

Favored the whole way: Louisville never fell below 51%.

Syracuse led by 10 but, as a 14.5-point underdog, never had better than a 49% chance.

82-yard TD run

Louisville · Q1 2:19

FinalLouisville 34-26 SyracuseLouisville wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 8:40Nelson 41-yd TD pass to Hatcher, Syracuse leads 10-0Louisville 66% → 51% (−15)
2Q4 10:16InterceptionNelson intercepted by White at the Louisville 36Louisville 65% → 81% (+16)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 8:40Nelson 41-yd TD pass to Hatcher, Syracuse leads 10-0Syracuse 34% → 49% (+15)
2Q4 10:16InterceptionNelson intercepted by White at the Louisville 36Syracuse 35% → 19% (−16)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 9:24Kienholz intercepted by Kerr at the Syracuse 46, returned 11 yardsBecause that’s only his second pick of the year?r/CFB game thread
Q1 3:04Kienholz runs 82 yards for a touchdown as Louisville fans celebrateLincoln “Brock “White Lamar Jackson” Domann” Kienholzr/CFB game thread
Q1 2:19A player ran for an 82-yard touchdown.THATS MY QBr/CFB game thread
Q2 14:55Nelson throws Russell III touchdown pass, but Syracuse misses extra pointThere may be a god and his name is Calvin Russell III (even though that was a dumb flag)r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:28A player ran for 20 yards on a third-and-11 play.Running the ball 3&11 somehow worked lolr/CFB game thread
Q3 5:35Louisville fans mock Syracuse after Kienholz throws an interception to KerrQuoted at the top of the page.Trash vs Garbage ass gamer/CFB game thread
Q4 7:34Louisville misses the PAT after Brown's touchdown, extending the lead to 34-26Why was the most energized call by the commentator team today for a missed PATr/CFB game thread
Q4 2:00Louisville fans criticize offensive line for failing to protect Kienholz against Syracuse blitzesOffensive line needs to walk home after this 2nd half performancer/CFB game threadMan we just cannot close this out.r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:00Fans criticize announcers for claiming controversy on Lauter's incomplete passThese announcers have no idea what is going on.r/CFB game threadIt’s the James Quick Clemson marker controversy all over againr/CFB game thread

Louisville’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Louisville -14.5), at 75% for Louisville (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Syracuse or Louisville flair (204 and 332); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Louisville’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Louisville scored on 5 of its 14 drives; Syracuse on 5 of its 14.

Louisville’s drives are teal, Syracuse’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Syracuse’s side

Syracuse’s best moment: Nelson 41-yd TD pass to Hatcher, Syracuse leads 10-0 (Q1 8:40). It lifted Syracuse’s win chance by 15 points.

How Syracuse fans took it: “These commentators are so confused by ball placement” r/CFB game thread

“Apparently we won a secret scrimmage vs Ohio State in basketball today so at least we have that…”

A Louisville fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were loudest as the game came down to the end.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

5 lead changes.

What it cost

Louisville’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 3%.

Make the playoff

Louisville · won1% → ▲3%

Syracuse · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

Louisville · won1% → ▲2%

Syracuse · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Louisville plays vs Stanford on Sat Oct 31 with a 3% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Louisville 34, Syracuse 26

Syracuse covered +14.5 by 6.5. The total, 60, went over 56.5.

Team totals	Louisville	Syracuse
Total yards	425	462
Passing	14 of 26, 310 yds	29 of 44, 339 yds
Rushing	35 for 115 yds	39 for 123 yds
First downs	15	26
Third down	6 of 13	3 of 14
Fourth down	0 of 0	2 of 4
Turnovers	2	3
Penalties	10 for 90 yds	8 for 88 yds
Time of possession	27:36	32:24

Louisville leaders

Passing Lincoln Kienholz 14 of 26, 310 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Lincoln Kienholz 10 for 53 yds, 2 TD; Keyjuan Brown 13 for 50 yds, 2 TD
Receiving Lawayne McCoy 5 for 93 yds; Treyshun Hurry 4 for 66 yds

Syracuse leaders

Passing Malachi Nelson 26 of 39, 315 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Ahmad Miller 18 for 123 yds, 1 TD; Tylik Hill 11 for 26 yds
Receiving Umari Hatcher 13 for 224 yds, 1 TD; Calvin Russell III 6 for 53 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Louisville · 3-3

Rated 61st in our preseason ratings, 36th now, up 25 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 44-20 vs Florida State #63 of 668

won by 24 as a 4-point favorite

L 28-31 @ NC State #45 of 668

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 27-30 vs Wake ForestTop 25 #71 of 668

lost by 3 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 41-31 vs SMUTop 25 #13 of 668

won by 10 as a 3-point favorite

W 59-13 vs Villanova #148 of 668

won by 46 as a 39.5-point favorite

L 38-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 #11 of 668

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

Last three games

Syracuse · 2-3

Rated 143rd in our preseason ratings, 105th now, up 38 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 25-28 @ VirginiaTop 25 #61 of 668

lost by 3 as a 14-point underdog

W 42-41 @ UConn #108 of 668

won by 1 as a 6.5-point favorite

L 13-27 @ PittsburghTop 25 #51 of 668

lost by 14 as a 10.5-point underdog

L 18-21 vs California #73 of 668

lost by 3 as a 4-point favorite

W 66-3 vs New Hampshire #197 of 668

won by 63 as a 35.5-point favorite

Week by week

Syracuse

Wk 1Wvs New Hampshire66-3
Wk 2Lvs California18-21
Wk 3Lat Pittsburgh13-27
Wk 5Wat UConn42-41
Wk 6Lat Virginia25-28

Louisville

Wk 2Wvs Villanova59-13
Wk 3Wvs SMU41-31
Wk 4Lvs Wake Forest27-30
Wk 5Lat NC State28-31
Wk 6Wvs Florida State44-20

Power rating by week

Louisville is rated 6.7 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Louisville’s rushing EPA against Syracuse, 55 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Louisville’s explosive plays against Syracuse’s defense
Louisville offense, 97th percentile · Syracuse defense, 51st
Louisville’s rushing EPA against Syracuse’s defense
Louisville offense, 89th percentile · Syracuse defense, 34th
Louisville’s EPA/play against Syracuse’s defense
Louisville offense, 93rd percentile · Syracuse defense, 59th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

LouisvilleSyracuse

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Louisville leads the series 13-8

21 meetings since 1985 · Syracuse won the last meeting

2022Syracuse 31-7
2021Louisville 41-3
2020Louisville 30-0
2019Louisville 56-34
2018Syracuse 54-23

Each line is Syracuse’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Louisville fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (23rd among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Louisville favored by 14.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

Louisville by 14.5: the game against the usual path

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Louisville.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Syracuse is worth +3.6 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 41st percentile.

50% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (23-23 home, 15-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 604 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Syracuse17th0-3
Louisville9th2-2

Full ACC standings

Louisville beats Syracuse 34-26