Arizona beats West Virginia 52-31

Arizona5-152
West Virginia3-331Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, W.Va. · Crowd 50,121TNT

Arizona beat West Virginia 52-31.

We had Arizona favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

Teams keep hitting us with the razzle dazzle when neither razzle nor dazzle are required to score on this defense.

Q4 11:35 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Molette 32-yd fumble return TD, Arizona leads 14-3 (Q1, 5:03). Arizona went from 64% to 83% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arizona an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Arizona was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.

Arizona won by 21, after dipping to 40% in the first quarter.

West Virginia never had better than a 60% chance.

Fumble return TDArizona · Q1 5:03
FinalArizona 52-31 West VirginiaArizona wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfArizonaWon52-3112+19+14ScoresArizonaW. VirginiaArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 9 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfArizonaWon52-3112ScoresArizonaWest Vi…Arizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 9 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfArizonaLowest 0%Lost31-5212−19−14ScoresW. VirginiaArizonaWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 9 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfArizonaLowest 0%Lost31-5212ScoresWest Vi…ArizonaWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 9 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minute

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 5:03FumbleMolette 32-yd fumble return TD, Arizona leads 14-3Arizona 64% → 83% (+19)
  2. 2Q3 0:13Fifita 72-yd TD pass to Mizell, Arizona leads 38-24Arizona 80% → 94% (+14)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 5:03FumbleMolette 32-yd fumble return TD, Arizona leads 14-3West Virginia 36% → 17% (−19)
  2. 2Q3 0:13Fifita 72-yd TD pass to Mizell, Arizona leads 38-24West Virginia 20% → 6% (−14)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 13:44WVU defense intercepts Fifita pass, fans mock obvious penalty callHahaha. The dumbest PI I’ve ever seen in my life. What are you doing, my dude?r/CFB game thread
  2. Q2 12:59A fan in the stands wore a hoodie with the phrase 'bitch, shut the fuck up'.how in the world did that guy ever get into the stadium with that hoodie on?r/CFB game thread
  3. Q2 0:51Arizona recovers Cook fumble as fans debate forward progress and celebrate the turnoverPreviously play was a fumble. This play should have been called dead well before it was stripped.r/CFB game thread
  4. Q4 11:35Arizona scores on two plays as West Virginia fans mock their defenseQuoted at the top of the page.Legitimately the worst WVU defense I’ve seen in my life and that’s a very high barr/CFB game thread
  5. Q4 9:40Arizona fans demand rankings as Roberts scores on WVU's collapsing defenseAnother 3 play TD drive? Okay I concede, you have the worse defense.r/CFB game threadI don’t think we were even trying to score that fastr/CFB game thread
Arizona’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Arizona -3.5), at 47% for Arizona (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a West Virginia or Arizona flair (483 and 583); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Arizona’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 5:03Molette 32-yd fumble return TDArizona leads 14-3Q1, 5:03 · Arizona 14, West Virginia 3▲19%Arizona’s chance to win, 64% to 83%▲19%Arizona’s chance to win, 64% to 83%Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
  2. Q2, 7:40Cook 30-yd TD runties it 17-17Q2, 7:40 · Arizona 17, West Virginia 17▼11%Arizona’s chance to win, 68% to 57%▼11%Arizona’s chance to win, 68% to 57%Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
  3. Q2, 2:52Craig 40-yd TD runArizona goes ahead 24-17Q2, 2:52 · Arizona 24, West Virginia 17▲10%Arizona’s chance to win, 64% to 74%▲10%Arizona’s chance to win, 64% to 74%Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
  4. Q3, 13:47Reescano 8-yd TD runArizona leads 31-17Q3, 13:47 · Arizona 31, West Virginia 17▲9%Arizona’s chance to win, 83% to 92%▲9%Arizona’s chance to win, 83% to 92%Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
  5. Q3, 0:13Fifita 72-yd TD pass to MizellArizona leads 38-24Q3, 0:13 · Arizona 38, West Virginia 24▲14%Arizona’s chance to win, 80% to 94%▲14%Arizona’s chance to win, 80% to 94%Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
  6. Q4, 12:33Cook 1-yd TD runcuts it to 38-31Q4, 12:33 · Arizona 38, West Virginia 31▼7%Arizona’s chance to win, 92% to 85%▼7%Arizona’s chance to win, 92% to 85%Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
  7. Q4, 11:35Fifita 42-yd TD pass to PhelpsArizona leads 45-31Q4, 11:35 · Arizona 45, West Virginia 31▲9%Arizona’s chance to win, 85% to 94%▲9%Arizona’s chance to win, 85% to 94%Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
  8. Q4, 9:40Roberts 30-yd TD runArizona leads 52-31Q4, 9:40 · Arizona 52, West Virginia 31▲2%Arizona’s chance to win, 97% to 99%▲2%Arizona’s chance to win, 97% to 99%Watch from this playBig 12 Conference

Every drive

Arizona scored on 7 of its 14 drives; West Virginia on 5 of its 14.

Arizona’s drives are teal, West Virginia’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1West Virginia: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 7Field goalArizona: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Virginia: Fumble Return returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 68Fumble Return TDWest Virginia: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 3DownsQ2Arizona: Interception, from 97 yards out to 84InterceptionWest Virginia: Touchdown, from 3 yards out to 0TouchdownArizona: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 27Field goalWest Virginia: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArizona: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntWest Virginia: Punt, from 70 yards out to 75PuntArizona: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Virginia: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 3FumbleArizona: End of half, from 97 yards out to 86End of halfQ3Arizona: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Virginia: Turned over on downs, from 78 yards out to 38DownsArizona: Punt, from 62 yards out to 49PuntWest Virginia: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0TouchdownArizona: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Virginia: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Arizona: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Virginia: Punt, from 75 yards out to 78PuntArizona: Touchdown, from 52 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Virginia: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 62DownsArizona: Missed field goal, from 38 yards out to 33Missed FGWest Virginia: Turned over on downs, from 67 yards out to 44DownsArizona: Punt, from 56 yards out to 62PuntWest Virginia: Turned over on downs, from 69 yards out to 63DownsArizona: End of game, from 37 yards out to 42End of game

From West Virginia’s side

West Virginia’s best moment: Hawkins 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 14-10 (Q2 12:59). It lifted West Virginia’s win chance by 13 points.

How West Virginia fans took it: “At least Pitt and Nards lost today.” r/CFB game thread

“Time to destroy a perfectly good football!!!”
An Arizona fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans peaked in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

FirstSecondThirdFourthArizona fansWest Virginia fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

West Virginia fans

alley“Go ahead and drop the new release that we have moved on from Zac Alley. It’s not that hard.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, back, yards, getting.

What it cost

Arizona’s chance to make the playoff rose from 5% to 6%.

Make the playoff

Arizona · won5% → ▲6%5%▲ 6%
West Virginia · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

Arizona · won4% → ▲5%4%▲ 5%
West Virginia · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Arizona plays vs Iowa State on Sat Oct 24 with a 6% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Arizona 52, West Virginia 31

Arizona covered −3.5 by 17.5. The total, 83, went over 61.5.

ArizonaWest VirginiaTotal yardsArizona 482West Virginia 522482522Passing yardsArizona 341West Virginia 219341219Rushing yardsArizona 141West Virginia 303141303First downsArizona 20West Virginia 302030TurnoversArizona 1West Virginia 212Time of possessionArizona 24:10West Virginia 35:5024:1035:50
Team totalsArizonaWest Virginia
Total yards482522
Passing17 of 24, 341 yds11 of 28, 219 yds
Rushing27 for 141 yds76 for 303 yds
First downs2030
Third down3 of 89 of 19
Fourth down0 of 02 of 7
Turnovers12
Penalties8 for 71 yds8 for 80 yds
Time of possession24:1035:50

Arizona leaders

  • Passing Noah Fifita 16 of 23, 341 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Antwan Roberts 7 for 63 yds, 1 TD; Quincy Craig 2 for 44 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Isaiah Mizell 6 for 183 yds, 2 TD; Brandon Phelps 4 for 88 yds, 1 TD

West Virginia leaders

  • Passing Michael Hawkins Jr. 11 of 28, 219 yds
  • Rushing Cam Cook 34 for 141 yds, 2 TD; Michael Hawkins Jr. 25 for 98 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Prince Strachan 5 for 121 yds; Amari Latimer 3 for 44 yds

No rain and calm

67° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 23

October game-day temperatures at Milan Puskar Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4West Virginia favoredArizona favored0%Win chanceWest VirginiaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4West Virginia favoredArizona favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 5:03 left12:30 p.m.
Arizona 14, West Virginia 3 · West Virginia 17% to win
no rain · wind 5 mph from the east, gusts to 13 · 68°
Molette 32-yd fumble return TD, Arizona leads 14-3

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Morgantown/hart Fld airport, 2.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Arizona · 4-1

Rated 27th in our preseason ratings, 20th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

Last three games

West Virginia · 3-2

Rated 182nd in our preseason ratings, 158th now, up 24 spots.

1-2 in its last three, including a 11-point win over Virginia as a 10.5-point underdog.

Week by week

West Virginia

Wk 1: W 31-24 vs Coastal Carolina▲7Coastal…Wk 2: W 52-7 vs UT Martin▲45UT MartinWk 3: W 38-27 at Virginia▲11VirginiaWk 4: L 24-41 vs Oklahoma State▼17Oklahoma…Wk 5: L 42-45 at Iowa State▼3Iowa St.
  • Wk 1Wvs Coastal Carolina31-24
  • Wk 2Wvs UT Martin52-7
  • Wk 3Wat Virginia38-27
  • Wk 4Lvs Oklahoma State24-41
  • Wk 5Lat Iowa State42-45

Arizona

Wk 1: W 35-7 vs Northern Arizona▲28N. Arizo…Wk 2: L 17-28 at BYU▼11BYUWk 3: W 42-17 vs Northern Illinois▲25N. Illin…Wk 4: W 34-24 at Washington State▲10Washingt…Wk 5: W 34-7 vs Cincinnati▲27Cincinna…
  • Wk 1Wvs Northern Arizona35-7
  • Wk 2Lat BYU17-28
  • Wk 3Wvs Northern Illinois42-17
  • Wk 4Wat Washington State34-24
  • Wk 5Wvs Cincinnati34-7

Power rating by week

Arizona is rated 13.1 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

10-1-11Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5West VirginiaArizona

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: West Virginia’s explosive plays against Arizona, 81 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. West Virginia’s explosive plays against Arizona’s defense

    81 pointsweakerstronger50th

    West Virginia offense, 83rd percentile · Arizona defense, 2nd

  2. Arizona’s EPA/play against West Virginia’s defense

    78 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Arizona offense, 81st percentile · West Virginia defense, 3rd

  3. Arizona’s passing EPA against West Virginia’s defense

    81 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Arizona offense, 81st percentile · West Virginia defense, 0th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

ArizonaWest Virginia
EPA/play, offense
Arizona · 81West Virginia · 73
EPA/play, defense
Arizona · 76West Virginia · 3
Success rate, offense
Arizona · 88West Virginia · 58
Success rate, defense
Arizona · 85West Virginia · 6
Explosive-play rate, offense
Arizona · 66West Virginia · 83
Explosive-play rate, defense
Arizona · 2West Virginia · 19
Rush EPA, offense
Arizona · 73West Virginia · 66
Rush EPA, defense
Arizona · 71West Virginia · 33
Pass EPA, offense
Arizona · 81West Virginia · 83
Pass EPA, defense
Arizona · 85West Virginia · 0

The series

West Virginia leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · West Virginia won the last meeting

  • 2024West Virginia 31-26West Virginia won 31-26 at Arizona. Chance to win started at 40%, low 38%, high 98%.

Each line is West Virginia’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Arizona fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (65th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 12%
  • Line · 39%
  • West Virginia fans · 27th
  • Arizona fans · 65th

Arizona favored by 3.5 · Total 61.5

How games like this usually go

Arizona by 3.5, and it went to form

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Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Arizona.

opened +3now +3.5

Spread: +3 → +3.5

The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

West Virginia is worth +4.0 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 50th percentile.

56% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (25-20 home, 16-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,798 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Big 12 standings