Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wake Forest an 81% chance, and the closing betting line (Wake Forest was a 10-point favorite) put it at 79%.
FinalWake Forest 41-7 CaliforniaWake Forest wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalCalifornia 7-41 Wake ForestCalifornia lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
The play that swung it
1Q1 8:20Lopez 39-yd TD pass to Barry, Wake Forest goes ahead 7-0Wake Forest 71% → 87% (+16)
The play that swung it
1Q1 8:20Lopez 39-yd TD pass to Barry, Wake Forest goes ahead 7-0California 29% → 13% (−16)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 10:50Wake Forest fans consider leaving as Cal struggles to score against a 21-0 deficitWhat is your other hand doing?r/CFB game thread
Q2 10:03Wake Forest fails a two-point conversion attempt after scoring a touchdownIt’s humbling to be the team that other teams practice their 2 point conversions on to just put them on film for real opponents.r/CFB game thread
Q2 8:53Cal fans mock their team's embarrassing performance and criticize coach ToshTosh = ass Confirmedr/CFB game threadLmao this game is a comedyr/CFB game thread
Q2 5:09California fans mock Wake Forest for punting and failing to score on every possessionQuoted at the top of the page.
Q2 3:06Fans criticize soft roughing the passer penalty on Brousseau passRoughing the passer, flicking his facemask.r/CFB game threadIs everything roughing the passerr/CFB game thread
Wake Forest’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Wake Forest -10), at 69% for Wake Forest (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a California or Wake Forest flair (398 and 112); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Every drive
Wake Forest scored on 6 of its 11 drives; California on 1 of its 11.
Wake Forest’s drives are teal, California’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“Shocking, a review going Miami’s way to end that OT classic”
Wake Forest’s chance to make the playoff rose from 5% to 8%.
Make the playoff
Wake Forest · won5% → ▲8%
California · lost2% → ▼0%
Win the conference
Wake Forest · won5% → ▲7%
California · lost2% → ▼0%
Before the game (October 17, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Wake Forest plays vs Virginia on Sat Oct 31 with an 8% chance to make the playoff. California plays at SMU on Sat Oct 24 with a 0% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Wake Forest 41, California 7
Wake Forest covered −10 by 24. The total, 48, stayed under 54.5.
Team totals
Wake Forest
California
Total yards
509
266
Passing
19 of 26, 289 yds
32 of 47, 191 yds
Rushing
36 for 220 yds
21 for 75 yds
First downs
24
20
Third down
8 of 14
6 of 16
Fourth down
2 of 2
1 of 4
Turnovers
0
0
Penalties
11 for 110 yds
5 for 37 yds
Time of possession
27:52
32:08
Wake Forest leaders
Passing Giovanni Lopez 16 of 23, 267 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Jamar Searcy 5 for 61 yds, 1 TD; Ty Clark III 8 for 53 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Dominick Barry 4 for 102 yds, 3 TD; Kameran Shanks 5 for 79 yds
California leaders
Passing Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 15 of 18, 110 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Ashten Emory 12 for 56 yds; Jackson Brousseau 5 for 14 yds
Receiving Chase Hendricks 8 for 54 yds; Mason Mini 5 for 49 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
67° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the west-northwest, gusts to 9
Wake Forest 0, California 0 · California 28% to win
no rain · wind 5 mph from the west · 67°
43-yd punt
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Oakland airport, 11 miles away, and Concord/buchanan airport, 14 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Wake Forest · 5-1
Rated 81st in our preseason ratings, 41st now, up 40 spots.
Three straight wins, including a 3-point win over Louisville as an 11.5-point underdog.
Wake Forest is rated 4.9 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Wake Forest’s rushing EPA against California, 82 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Wake Forest’s explosive plays against California’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 79th percentile · California defense, 3rd
Wake Forest’s EPA/play against California’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 94th percentile · California defense, 21st
Wake Forest’s rushing EPA against California’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 85th percentile · California defense, 3rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Wake ForestCalifornia
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
California leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2024 · California won the last meeting
2024California 46-36
Each line is California’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Wake Forest fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (82nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Wake Forest favored by 10 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go
Wake Forest by 10, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Wake Forest.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +8.5 → +10 · Total: 53.5 → 54.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
California is worth +1.6 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 10th percentile.
49% at home, 39% on the road against FBS opponents (22-23 home, 17-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.4 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,301 miles to get here.
Wake Forest 41-7 California
Wake Forest wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.