West Virginia 45-42 Cincinnati (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Cincinnati · West Virginia

Cincinnati4-242

West Virginia4-345Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, W.Va. · Crowd 48,106

West Virginia beat Cincinnati 45-42.

We had Cincinnati favored. West Virginia won.

Next: Cincinnati vs Texas Tech, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Cincinnati underdog by 10.5

Next: West Virginia at TCU, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · West Virginia underdog by 9.5

Top comment in the game thread

One game closer to satterfield and Cunningham getting shot out of a cannon back to NC

Q4 1:55 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Hawkins 41-yd pass to Strachan (Q4, 1:48). West Virginia went from 39% to 62% to win. Fans right then: “One game closer to satterfield and Cunningham getting shot out of a cannon back to NC” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave West Virginia a 31% chance, and the closing betting line (West Virginia was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

Down to 18% in the fourth quarter, West Virginia came back to win.

Up to 82% in the fourth quarter, then Cincinnati lost it.

FinalWest Virginia 45-42 CincinnatiWest Virginia wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 1:48Hawkins 41-yd pass to StrachanWest Virginia 40% → 62% (+22)
2Q4 0:00Cassidy 35-yd field goal, West Virginia goes ahead 45-42West Virginia 79% → 100% (+21)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 1:48Hawkins 41-yd pass to StrachanCincinnati 61% → 38% (−23)
2Q4 0:00Cassidy 35-yd field goal, West Virginia goes ahead 45-42Cincinnati 21% → 0% (−21)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 11:23Cole Tabb is the greatest player everr/CFB game threadlol no, we were never going to stop themr/CFB game thread
Q4 6:04Cincinnati scores to lead 42-35 as fans blame WVU defense and coach AlleySomeone get Zach Alleys pastor back on the phoner/CFB game threadZac Alley needs to convert. His pastor obviously didn't help him.r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:44Fans lament both teams' nonexistent defenses as Hawkins ties the game with a touchdown pass to CookThe absolute worst display of defense I’ve ever seen.r/CFB game thread
Q4 2:05Cincinnati punts on fourth down with 2:05 left, sparking outrage from fansGreatest punt in human history I fearr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:55Cincinnati fans demand firing coach Scott Satterfield after WVU ties gameQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 0:12Cincinnati fans demand Satterfield's firing after WVU wins 45-42Scott Satterfield team. We win the Misery Olympics over any other poser fanbase.r/CFB game threadJust what happens when Scott Satterfield is your coachr/CFB game thread

West Virginia’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (West Virginia -1.5), at 65% for West Virginia (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a West Virginia or Cincinnati flair (308 and 194); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show West Virginia’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

West Virginia scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Cincinnati on 6 of its 12.

West Virginia’s drives are teal, Cincinnati’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Cincinnati’s side

Cincinnati’s best moment: French 51-yd TD pass to Johnson, Cincinnati goes ahead 14-7 (Q2 4:55). It lifted Cincinnati’s win chance by 19 points.

How Cincinnati fans took it: “One game closer to satterfield and Cunningham getting shot out of a cannon back to NC” r/CFB game thread

“Sat loses road games and games in november, so he loses most of his games.”

A Cincinnati fan

When fans got loud

Loud

Fans were loudest as the game came down to the end.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was steady.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“I hope this is the last game Zac coaches”

A West Virginia fan

Too close to call on 68% of plays. The winner fell to 10%.

Box score

West Virginia 45, Cincinnati 42

West Virginia covered −1.5 by 1.5. The total, 87, went over 64.5.

Team totals	Cincinnati	West Virginia
Total yards	622	598
Passing	22 of 30, 389 yds	25 of 33, 464 yds
Rushing	40 for 233 yds	46 for 134 yds
First downs	28	27
Third down	7 of 13	6 of 13
Fourth down	1 of 2	2 of 2
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	8 for 49 yds	4 for 31 yds
Time of possession	31:56	28:04

Cincinnati leaders

Passing JC French 22 of 30, 389 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Cole Tabb 15 for 118 yds, 2 TD; JC French 13 for 52 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Malachi Henry 2 for 128 yds; Isaiah Johnson 3 for 85 yds, 1 TD

West Virginia leaders

Passing Michael Hawkins Jr. 25 of 33, 464 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Michael Hawkins Jr. 26 for 77 yds, 2 TD; Cam Cook 15 for 40 yds
Receiving DJ Epps 8 for 163 yds, 1 TD; Prince Strachan 3 for 84 yds

No rain, gusts to 29 mph

49° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 10 mph from the north, mostly along the field, gusts to 29

A 29 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 92% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

The usual here around this date is 57°, with about 7 in 10 games between 46° and 66°.

October game-day temperatures at Milan Puskar Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 1:54 left1:24 p.m.

Cincinnati 14, West Virginia 14 · West Virginia 46% to win

no rain · wind 12 mph from the north, mostly along the field, gusts to 29 · 50°

French 24-yd pass to Johnson

Measured at Morgantown/hart Fld airport, 2.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Cincinnati · 4-1

Rated 109th in our preseason ratings, 92nd now, up 17 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 5-point win over Kansas State as a 6-point underdog.

L 7-34 @ ArizonaTop 25 #20 of 668

lost by 27 as a 7-point underdog

W 31-26 vs Kansas State #30 of 668

won by 5 as a 6-point underdog

W 35-31 vs Miami (OH) #85 of 668

won by 4 as a 14.5-point favorite

W 62-10 vs Western Carolina #193 of 668

won by 52 as a 36.5-point favorite

W 34-15 vs Boston College #131 of 668

won by 19 as a 7-point favorite

Last three games

West Virginia · 3-3

Rated 182nd in our preseason ratings, 153rd now, up 29 spots.

Three straight losses.

L 31-52 vs ArizonaTop 25 #19 of 668

lost by 21 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 42-45 @ Iowa State #112 of 668

lost by 3 as a 3-point underdog

L 24-41 vs Oklahoma StateTop 25 #148 of 668

lost by 17 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 38-27 @ VirginiaTop 25 #50 of 668

won by 11 as a 10.5-point underdog

W 52-7 vs UT Martin #171 of 668

won by 45 as a 41.5-point favorite

W 31-24 vs Coastal Carolina #228 of 668

won by 7 as a 21-point favorite

Week by week

West Virginia

Wk 2Wvs UT Martin52-7
Wk 3Wat Virginia38-27
Wk 4Lvs Oklahoma State24-41
Wk 5Lat Iowa State42-45
Wk 6Lvs Arizona31-52

Cincinnati

Wk 1Wvs Boston College34-15
Wk 2Wvs Western Carolina62-10
Wk 3Wvs Miami (OH)35-31
Wk 4Wvs Kansas State31-26
Wk 5Lat Arizona7-34

Power rating by week

Cincinnati is rated 4.5 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Cincinnati’s EPA/play against West Virginia, 87 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Cincinnati’s EPA/play against West Virginia’s defense
Cincinnati offense, 90th percentile · West Virginia defense, 3rd
Cincinnati’s explosive plays against West Virginia’s defense
Cincinnati offense, 98th percentile · West Virginia defense, 19th
Cincinnati’s passing EPA against West Virginia’s defense
Cincinnati offense, 79th percentile · West Virginia defense, 0th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

CincinnatiWest Virginia

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

West Virginia leads the series 18-3-1

22 meetings since 1921 · West Virginia has won the last 4

2024West Virginia 31-24
2023West Virginia 42-21
2011West Virginia 24-21
2010West Virginia 37-10
2009Cincinnati 24-21

Each line is West Virginia’s chance to win through that meeting. West Virginia is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Cincinnati fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (63rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

West Virginia favored by 1.5 · Total 64.5

How games like this usually go

West Virginia by 1.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The total rose 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

West Virginia is worth +4.0 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 50th percentile.

56% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (25-20 home, 16-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 246 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

West Virginia16th0-3
Cincinnati8th1-1

Full Big 12 standings

West Virginia beats Cincinnati 45-42