Wake Forest 38-14 NC State (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Wake Forest · NC State

Wake Forest5-138

NC State3-314Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, N.C. · Crowd 56,919

Wake Forest beat NC State 38-14.

We had NC State favored. Wake Forest won.

Next: Wake Forest beat California 41-7, Sat Oct 17

Next: NC State at Stanford, Fri Oct 23 · 10:30 PM ET · NC State favored by 6.5

Top comment in the game thread

I’m glad to hear the fans booing to express their frustration because I’m not there to do it

Q3 0:52 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Wilson 2-yd TD pass to Provience, NC State goes ahead 14-7 (Q2, 9:42). Wake Forest went from 51% to 28% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wake Forest a 49% chance, and the closing betting line (Wake Forest was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

Wake Forest won by 24, after dipping to 22% in the second quarter.

Up to 78% in the second quarter, then NC State lost it.

31 unanswered

Wake Forest · Q3 10:44

FinalWake Forest 38-14 NC StateWake Forest wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 9:42Wilson 2-yd TD pass to Provience, NC State goes ahead 14-7Wake Forest 51% → 28% (−23)
2Q3 10:44Lopez 6-yd TD pass to Hernandez, Wake Forest goes ahead 17-14Wake Forest 45% → 64% (+19)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 9:42Wilson 2-yd TD pass to Provience, NC State goes ahead 14-7NC State 49% → 72% (+23)
2Q3 10:44Lopez 6-yd TD pass to Hernandez, Wake Forest goes ahead 17-14NC State 55% → 36% (−19)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 3:41NC State fans blame Dave Doeren as Lopez connects with Foley for a 36-yard gainI hope whichever reporter Dave hit with “Btw we won that game” comes back today asking him why this team has been outscored significantly in every single 2nd half this seasonr/CFB game thread
Q3 0:52Quoted at the top of the page.NC State isn’t a serious program and will end up in the same division at App.r/CFB game thread
Q4 11:24Wake Forest fans celebrate a bloodbath as NC State appears to quitMore. Bloodbath.r/CFB game threadNo! Let us keep playing the under dog lolr/CFB game thread

Wake Forest’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Wake Forest -4), at 57% for Wake Forest (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a NC State or Wake Forest flair (427 and 140); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

Wake Forest scored on 6 of its 10 drives; NC State on 2 of its 9.

Wake Forest’s drives are teal, NC State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From NC State’s side

NC State’s best moment: Wilson 2-yd TD pass to Provience, NC State goes ahead 14-7 (Q2 9:42). It lifted NC State’s win chance by 23 points.

How NC State fans took it: “Gotta be blaming one of the most masochistically loyal fanbases in the country for not showing up to see a blowout in a downpour” r/CFB game thread

“Honestly, that was a tremendous drive”

An NC State fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans peaked in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

Wake Forest’s chance to make the playoff rose from 2% to 3%.

Make the playoff

Wake Forest · won2% → ▲3%

NC State · lost2% → ▼1%

Win the conference

Wake Forest · won2% → ▲3%

NC State · lost2% → ▼1%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

NC State plays at Stanford on Fri Oct 23 with a 1% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Wake Forest 38, NC State 14

Wake Forest covered −4 by 20. The total, 52, stayed under 56.5.

Team totals	Wake Forest	NC State
Total yards	387	258
Passing	26 of 33, 303 yds	29 of 40, 243 yds
Rushing	36 for 84 yds	24 for 15 yds
First downs	22	16
Third down	7 of 13	6 of 14
Fourth down	2 of 2	1 of 3
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	6 for 55 yds	5 for 29 yds
Time of possession	31:57	28:03

Wake Forest leaders

Passing Giovanni Lopez 26 of 33, 303 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Deuce Lawrence 8 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Jamar Searcy 4 for 28 yds
Receiving Jack Foley 8 for 156 yds, 1 TD; Carlos Hernandez 12 for 117 yds, 1 TD

NC State leaders

Passing CJ Bailey 28 of 39, 241 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Davion Gause 7 for 11 yds; Dylan McCoy 3 for 5 yds
Receiving Keenan Jackson 5 for 61 yds; Chance Robinson 3 for 53 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

66° at kickoff · 0.01 in of rain · wind 10 mph from the east-northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 22

October game-day temperatures at Carter-Finley Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 9:42 left12:55 p.m.

Wake Forest 7, NC State 14 · NC State 72% to win

no rain · wind 9 mph from the east-northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 16 · 68°

Wilson 2-yd TD pass to Provience, NC State goes ahead 14-7

Measured at Raleigh / Durham airport, 7.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Wake Forest · 4-1

Rated 81st in our preseason ratings, 58th now, up 23 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Louisville as an 11.5-point underdog.

W 57-3 vs Stanford #133 of 668

won by 54 as a 14.5-point favorite

W 30-27 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #47 of 668

won by 3 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 20-33 vs MiamiTop 25 #9 of 668

lost by 13 as a 20.5-point underdog

W 38-36 @ Purdue #118 of 668

won by 2 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 38-16 vs Akron #60 of 668

won by 22 as a 27.5-point favorite

Last three games

NC State · 3-2

Rated 44th in our preseason ratings, 45th now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over Louisville as a 5.5-point underdog.

W 31-28 vs LouisvilleTop 25 #50 of 668

won by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 41-31 vs App State #92 of 668

won by 10 as a 12.5-point favorite

L 31-35 @ Vanderbilt #42 of 668

lost by 4 as a 3-point underdog

W 73-0 vs Richmond #166 of 668

won by 73 as a 33.5-point favorite

L 8-34 @ VirginiaTop 25 #54 of 668

lost by 26 as a 4-point underdog

Week by week

NC State

Wk 1Lat Virginia8-34
Wk 2Wvs Richmond73-0
Wk 3Lat Vanderbilt31-35
Wk 4Wvs App State41-31
Wk 5Wvs Louisville31-28

Wake Forest

Wk 1Wvs Akron38-16
Wk 2Wat Purdue38-36
Wk 3Lvs Miami20-33
Wk 4Wat Louisville30-27
Wk 5Wvs Stanford57-3

Power rating by week

NC State is rated 1.8 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Wake Forest’s passing EPA against NC State, 87 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Wake Forest’s passing EPA against NC State’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 95th percentile · NC State defense, 8th
NC State’s explosive plays against Wake Forest’s defense
NC State offense, 23rd percentile · Wake Forest defense, 96th
Wake Forest’s EPA/play against NC State’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 94th percentile · NC State defense, 24th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Wake ForestNC State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

NC State leads the series 70-43-5

118 meetings since 1908 · NC State won the last meeting

2025NC State 34-24
2024Wake Forest 34-30
2023NC State 26-6
2022NC State 30-21
2021Wake Forest 45-42

Each line is NC State’s chance to win through that meeting. NC State is 2-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Wake Forest fans are in a better mood than NC State fans (45th vs 2nd among FBS fanbases), even with NC State favored.

Wake Forest favored by 4 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

Wake Forest by 4, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The total fell 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

NC State is worth +6.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 84th percentile.

75% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (39-13 home, 17-24 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.6 at home vs. away over 100 games — outside the ±5.3 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 89 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Wake Forest 27, NC State 23Nov 8, 2018

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

NC State8th1-1
Wake Forest4th2-1

Full ACC standings

Wake Forest beats NC State 38-14