App State beats Coastal Carolina 35-32
Team pages: App State · Coastal Carolina
App State beat Coastal Carolina 35-32. Share this game
We had App State favored. It won.
Next: App State vs James Madison, Thu Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET · App State underdog by 10.5
Top comment in the game thread
This is how Coastal wins games: their opponents drop the dang ball
How it swung
The turning point: Bailey 71-yd TD pass to Washington, ties it 14-14 (Q2, 11:47). App State went from 73% to 47% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave App State a 53% chance, and the closing betting line (App State was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.
App State came back from 10 down, at one point just a 16% chance in the third quarter.
Coastal Carolina led by 10, was as high as 84% in the third quarter, and still lost.
App State · Q3 2:20App State 35-32 Coastal Carolina
App State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Coastal Carolina 32-35 App StateCoastal Carolina lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:50Lewis 1-yd TD run, App State goes ahead 14-7App State 50% → 74% (+24)
- 2Q2 11:47Bailey 71-yd TD pass to Washington, ties it 14-14App State 73% → 47% (−26)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:50Lewis 1-yd TD run, App State goes ahead 14-7Coastal Carolina 50% → 26% (−24)
- 2Q2 11:47Bailey 71-yd TD pass to Washington, ties it 14-14Coastal Carolina 27% → 53% (+26)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 0:12Singleton fumbles on rush, Coastal recovers as stadium lights flashQuoted at the top of the page.
“This is how coastal wins games” QBs just turn into looney tune characters for them consistently?
r/CFB game thread - Q4 8:34Berchal breaks up Bailey pass as fans criticize Coastal offense
NOOOO! You have to catch that one.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 6:41Hasselbeck throws deep touchdown pass to Pickett III, making it 35-24
Hassellbeck might be that dude
r/CFB game thread - Q4 3:40Fans criticize Coastal Carolina for calling a timeout instead of going for two
Just turned on the game and those junior high girl’s Lisa Frank folder lookin ass uniforms that Coastal is wearing are sure something.
r/CFB game threadHoly terrible timeout
r/CFB game thread - Q4 3:11Fans mock broadcast for missing clock rule after App State burns timeout
Do these announcers know the clock still runs after the ball is set when going out of bounds above the 2 minute warning? It didnt matter he stepped out there. It wss going down to…
r/CFB game threadBecause the commentator forgot the rule changes to the clock that's been in effect for a couple years.
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (App State -1.5), at 43% for App State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show App State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 13:06Bailey 21-yd TD pass to GardnerCoastal Carolina goes ahead 7-0Q1, 13:06 · App State 0, Coastal Carolina 7▼9%App State’s chance to win, 35% to 26%▼9%App State’s chance to win, 35% to 26%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 3:50Lewis 1-yd TD runApp State goes ahead 14-7Q1, 3:50 · App State 14, Coastal Carolina 7▲24%App State’s chance to win, 50% to 74%▲24%App State’s chance to win, 50% to 74%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 11:47Bailey 71-yd TD pass to Washingtonties it 14-14Q2, 11:47 · App State 14, Coastal Carolina 14▼26%App State’s chance to win, 73% to 47%▼26%App State’s chance to win, 73% to 47%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 1:53Bailey 8-yd TD pass to VergesCoastal Carolina goes ahead 21-14Q2, 1:53 · App State 14, Coastal Carolina 21▼2%App State’s chance to win, 33% to 31%▼2%App State’s chance to win, 33% to 31%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 7:59Lewis 12-yd TD runcuts it to 24-21Q3, 7:59 · App State 21, Coastal Carolina 24▲16%App State’s chance to win, 19% to 35%▲16%App State’s chance to win, 19% to 35%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 6:20Bailey intercepted by Henderson at the App State 42Q3, 6:20 · App State 21, Coastal Carolina 24▲10%App State’s chance to win, 30% to 40%▲10%App State’s chance to win, 30% to 40%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 2:20Lewis 3-yd TD runApp State goes ahead 28-24Q3, 2:20 · App State 28, Coastal Carolina 24▲15%App State’s chance to win, 42% to 57%▲15%App State’s chance to win, 42% to 57%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 6:41Hasselbeck 31-yd TD pass to PickettApp State leads 35-24Q4, 6:41 · App State 35, Coastal Carolina 24▲17%App State’s chance to win, 80% to 97%▲17%App State’s chance to win, 80% to 97%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 3:11Allen-Hendrix 2-yd TD runcuts it to 35-32Q4, 3:11 · App State 35, Coastal Carolina 32▼6%App State’s chance to win, 92% to 86%▼6%App State’s chance to win, 92% to 86%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
App State scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Coastal Carolina on 5 of its 11.
App State’s drives are teal, Coastal Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Coastal Carolina’s side
Coastal Carolina’s best moment: Bailey 71-yd TD pass to Washington, ties it 14-14 (Q2 11:47). It lifted Coastal Carolina’s win chance by 26 points.
How Coastal Carolina fans took it: “CFP and superbowl in the same commercial im sick” r/CFB game thread
“Hassellbeck might be that dude”
When fans got loud
Busy
Fans peaked in the fourth quarter.
The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.
The winner fell to 14%.
What it cost
App State’s chance to win the conference rose from 1% to 2%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
App State plays vs James Madison on Thu Oct 22 with a 2% chance to win the conference. Coastal Carolina plays at Georgia State on Sat Oct 31 with a 0% chance to win the conference.
Box score
App State 35, Coastal Carolina 32
App State covered −1.5 by 1.5. The total, 67, went over 48.5.
| Team totals | App State | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 516 | 437 |
| Passing | 21 of 26, 263 yds | 16 of 31, 298 yds |
| Rushing | 52 for 253 yds | 30 for 139 yds |
| First downs | 28 | 21 |
| Third down | 8 of 14 | 6 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 4 for 50 yds | 5 for 60 yds |
| Time of possession | 33:17 | 26:43 |
App State leaders
- Passing Malachi Singleton 12 of 14, 151 yds
- Rushing Henry Hasselbeck 21 for 125 yds; Jaquari Lewis 13 for 85 yds, 4 TD
- Receiving Sam Pickett III 5 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Alex Sanchez 3 for 58 yds
Coastal Carolina leaders
- Passing Deuce Bailey 16 of 31, 298 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Dominic Knicely 18 for 90 yds; Deuce Bailey 5 for 38 yds
- Receiving Robby Washington 5 for 118 yds, 1 TD; Colton Hinton 3 for 77 yds
No rain through the game
73° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 66°, with about 7 in 10 games between 57° and 74°.
October game-day temperatures at Brooks Stadium (SC)
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Conway airport, 6.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is Coastal-App State — see the full head-to-head history →
Recent games
Last three games
App State · 3-2
Rated 98th in our preseason ratings, 114th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Coastal Carolina · 2-4
Rated 231st in our preseason ratings, 160th now, up 71 spots.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 6-point win over Marshall as a 4.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Coastal Carolina
- Wk 2Wvs Fordham45-7
- Wk 3Lat Delaware14-22
- Wk 4Lvs Liberty17-34
- Wk 5Lvs Georgia Southern24-31
- Wk 6Wat Marshall27-21
App State
- Wk 1Wvs Maine55-3
- Wk 2Wat East Carolina27-24
- Wk 3Wvs Charlotte26-21
- Wk 4Lat NC State31-41
- Wk 6Lvs Old Dominion3-10
Power rating by week
App State is rated 3.4 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: App State’s passing EPA against Coastal Carolina, 58 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
App State’s passing EPA against Coastal Carolina’s defense
App State offense, 66th percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 8th
App State’s success rate against Coastal Carolina’s defense
App State offense, 49th percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 10th
App State’s explosive plays against Coastal Carolina’s defense
App State offense, 50th percentile · Coastal Carolina defense, 81st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
App State leads the series 7-5
12 meetings since 2005 · Coastal Carolina has won the last 4
- 2025Coastal Carolina 45-37
- 2024Coastal Carolina 38-24
- 2023Coastal Carolina 27-24
- 2022Coastal Carolina 35-28
- 2021App State 30-27
Each line is Coastal Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. Coastal Carolina is 3-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
App State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (97th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
App State favored by 1.5 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
App State by 1.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The total fell 3 points.
Total: 51.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 4.8%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Coastal Carolina has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.6 points (±4.4), home against road — 4th percentile of FBS.
58% at home, 53% on the road against FBS opponents (26-19 home, 26-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.1 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 225 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Coastal Carolina 27, App State 24Oct 10, 2023
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2021.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Coastal Carolina7th1-1
- App State11th0-1