Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Florida an 85% chance, and the closing betting line (South Florida was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.
Favored the whole way: South Florida never fell below 82%.
Kent State never had better than a 17% chance.
SafetyKent State · Q1 1:52SafetySouth Florida · Q4 0:11
FinalSouth Florida 29-2 Kent StateSouth Florida wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalKent State 2-29 South FloridaKent State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
The play that swung it
1Q2 12:32FumbleDeShields fumbles, Hicks returns it for a TD, South Florida goes ahead 7-2South Florida 84% → 95% (+11)
The play that swung it
1Q2 12:32FumbleDeShields fumbles, Hicks returns it for a TD, South Florida goes ahead 7-2Kent State 16% → 5% (−11)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 0:21USF fans despair as Kent State drives deep into the first quarterWtf am I watching... after watching brown take down Georgia.... ughr/CFB game thread
Q2 13:26Hicks returns fumble 96 yards for touchdown as USF leads 7-2Quoted at the top of the page.High five mid return is nasty work lolr/CFB game thread
South Florida’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (South Florida -20.5), at 93% for South Florida (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold.
Every drive
South Florida scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Kent State on 0 of its 12.
South Florida’s drives are teal, Kent State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“High five mid return is nasty work lol”
A South Florida fan
When fans got loud
Loud
Fans saved their loudest stretch for the second quarter.
South Florida’s chance to win the conference rose from 4% to 5%.
Win the conference
Kent State · lost1% → 1%
South Florida · won4% → ▲5%
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
South Florida plays vs UAB on Sat Oct 31 with a 5% chance to win the conference.
Box score
South Florida 29, Kent State 2
South Florida covered −20.5 by 6.5. The total, 31, stayed under 46.5.
Team totals
Kent State
South Florida
Total yards
228
271
Passing
17 of 33, 165 yds
22 of 27, 193 yds
Rushing
35 for 63 yds
32 for 78 yds
First downs
15
16
Third down
6 of 17
3 of 11
Fourth down
0 of 4
1 of 2
Turnovers
1
0
Penalties
8 for 38 yds
6 for 62 yds
Time of possession
31:46
28:14
Kent State leaders
Passing Dru Deshields 17 of 30, 165 yds
Rushing Brandon White 10 for 37 yds; Nolan Good 4 for 16 yds
Receiving Brendyn Smith 4 for 56 yds; Ardell Banks 2 for 39 yds
South Florida leaders
Passing Michael Van Buren Jr. 22 of 27, 193 yds, 1 TD
Rushing D.J. Crowther 11 for 42 yds; Jason Collins Jr. 6 for 40 yds
Receiving Cameron Seldon 4 for 60 yds, 1 TD; Mudia Reuben 2 for 32 yds
No rain and calm
73° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 10 mph from the north-northeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 24
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
First quarter, 14:41 left7:03 p.m.
Kent State 0, South Florida 0 · South Florida 93% to win
no rain · wind 8 mph from the north-northeast, gusts to 14 · 73°
DeShields 6-yd pass to Hopperton
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Tampa International Airport, 2.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Kent State · 2-4
Rated 122nd in our preseason ratings, 143rd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
South Florida is rated 6.8 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Kent State’s rushing EPA against South Florida, 78 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Kent State’s EPA/play against South Florida’s defense
Kent State offense, 1st percentile · South Florida defense, 63rd
South Florida’s explosive plays against Kent State’s defense
South Florida offense, 3rd percentile · Kent State defense, 69th
Kent State’s rushing EPA against South Florida’s defense
Kent State offense, 3rd percentile · South Florida defense, 81st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Kent StateSouth Florida
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on South Florida’s chances here.
South Florida favored by 20.5 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
South Florida by 20.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward South Florida.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: −18.5 → −20.5 · Total: 49.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
South Florida is worth +2.3 points (±4.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 19th percentile.
41% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (17-24 home, 14-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 912 miles to get here.
Kent State · Q1 1:52Safety
South Florida · Q4 0:11