UCLA 17-7 Wisconsin (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Wisconsin · UCLA

Wisconsin4-27

No. 12 UCLA6-017Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif. · Crowd 36,045

No. 12 UCLA beat Wisconsin 17-7.

We had UCLA favored. It won.

Next: Wisconsin vs USC, Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Wisconsin underdog by 3

Next: UCLA vs Michigan State, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · UCLA favored by 14

Top comment in the game thread

Stopped them on 4th down with a missed facemask Genuinely sorry for that Badger frens

Q4 8:03 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UCLA a 78% chance, and the closing betting line (UCLA was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

Favored the whole way: UCLA never fell below 59%.

Wisconsin never had better than a 41% chance.

TargetingQ4 12:51

FinalUCLA 17-7 WisconsinUCLA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 7:16Knight 1-yd TD run, UCLA leads 10-0UCLA 73% → 84% (+11)
2Q3 8:17Joseph 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 10-7UCLA 82% → 70% (−12)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 7:16Knight 1-yd TD run, UCLA leads 10-0Wisconsin 27% → 16% (−11)
2Q3 8:17Joseph 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 10-7Wisconsin 18% → 30% (+12)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 0:30The refs were like wait you can’t hit a UCLA player hard that’s a flagr/CFB game threadThat block was so clean. Refs just shocked the CB went flat on his assr/CFB game thread
Q2 9:09Wisconsin fans argue refs ignore blatant holding on Dieffenbach's runThat’s a blatant hold on the center wtfr/CFB game threadWe’re just not going to call the clear hold?r/CFB game thread
Q3 3:22Wisconsin fans rage as officials rule pass interference on Dieffenbach's incomplete passThis might be hard for some to believe, but I dont watch for the refs.r/CFB game threadI hope the refs go to a bar after the game and have a really hard time getting the attention of the bartender and start feeling awkward about it they should speak up or not and…r/CFB game thread
Q4 8:03Fans condemn missed facemask calls and overturned ruling after Wisconsin turnover on downsQuoted at the top of the page.the amount of facemask UCLA hasn't been called for this game is disgusting. Only to be out done by the fact that their have been this many other penalties that have been called.r/CFB game thread

UCLA’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (UCLA -1.5), at 62% for UCLA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a UCLA or Wisconsin flair (504 and 798); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show UCLA’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

UCLA scored on 3 of its 9 drives; Wisconsin on 1 of its 8.

UCLA’s drives are teal, Wisconsin’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Wisconsin’s side

Wisconsin’s best moment: Joseph 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 10-7 (Q3 8:17). It lifted Wisconsin’s win chance by 12 points.

How Wisconsin fans took it: “UCLA is good at football. This was winnable. Fickells seat remains hot.” r/CFB game thread

“Now don't make any sudden movements post touchdown”

A Wisconsin fan

How fans reacted

Steady

It was the first quarter that had fans talking the most.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Wisconsin fans

joseph“Colton Joseph needs to pull a Paul Crewe and chuck the ball directly at the refs nuts.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: call, ball, missed, every.

What it cost

UCLA’s chance to make the playoff rose from 35% to 41%.

Make the playoff

Wisconsin · lost4% → ▼2%

UCLA · won35% → ▲41%

Win the conference

Wisconsin · lost3% → ▼1%

UCLA · won16% → ▲19%

Win the title

Wisconsin · lost0% → 0%

UCLA · won1% → ▲2%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Wisconsin plays vs USC on Sat Oct 24 with a 2% chance to make the playoff. UCLA plays vs Michigan State on Sat Oct 24 with a 41% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

UCLA 17, Wisconsin 7

UCLA covered −1.5 by 8.5. The total, 24, stayed under 42.5.

Team totals	Wisconsin	UCLA
Total yards	214	384
Passing	6 of 16, 66 yds	22 of 34, 264 yds
Rushing	33 for 148 yds	37 for 120 yds
First downs	13	20
Third down	3 of 10	13 of 20
Fourth down	0 of 1	0 of 2
Turnovers	0	2
Penalties	10 for 108 yds	8 for 78 yds
Time of possession	22:58	37:02

Wisconsin leaders

Passing Colton Joseph 6 of 16, 66 yds
Rushing Colton Joseph 18 for 71 yds, 1 TD; Abu Sama III 6 for 34 yds
Receiving Jaylon Domingeaux 2 for 26 yds; Chris Brooks Jr. 1 for 17 yds

UCLA leaders

Passing Ty Dieffenbach 22 of 33, 264 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Anthony Woods 8 for 39 yds, 1 TD; Jaivian Thomas 9 for 37 yds
Receiving Semaj Morgan 5 for 84 yds; Landon Ellis 2 for 57 yds

63° at the start

63° at kickoff · rain amounts not reported at this airport

The usual here around this date is 75°, with about 7 in 10 games between 66° and 84°.

October game-day temperatures at Rose Bowl

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 15:00 left4:37 p.m.

Wisconsin 0, UCLA 0 · UCLA 62% to win

62°

Joseph 3-yd pass to Domingeaux

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Mount Wilson airport, 7.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Wisconsin · 4-1

Rated 86th in our preseason ratings, 48th now, up 38 spots.

Three straight wins, including a 4-point win over Penn State as a 9.5-point underdog.

W 31-3 vs Michigan State #139 of 668

won by 28 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 24-20 @ Penn StateTop 25 #32 of 668

won by 4 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 54-10 vs Eastern Michigan #142 of 668

won by 44 as a 23.5-point favorite

W 36-9 vs Western Illinois #238 of 668

won by 27 as a 43.5-point favorite

L 13-41 @ Notre DameTop 25 #1 of 668

lost by 28 as a 21-point underdog

Last three games

UCLA · 5-0

Rated 62nd in our preseason ratings, 21st now, up 41 spots.

Three straight wins, capped by a 2-point win over Oregon as a 10-point underdog.

W 17-15 @ OregonTop 25 #8 of 668

won by 2 as a 10-point underdog

W 54-3 @ Maryland #76 of 668

won by 51 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 52-38 vs Purdue #123 of 668

won by 14 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 28-10 vs San Diego State #45 of 668

won by 18 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 45-24 @ California #63 of 668

won by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite

Week by week

UCLA

Wk 1Wat California45-24
Wk 2Wvs San Diego State28-10
Wk 3Wvs Purdue52-38
Wk 4Wat Maryland54-3
Wk 6Wat Oregon17-15

Wisconsin

Wk 1Lat Notre Dame13-41
Wk 2Wvs Western Illinois36-9
Wk 3Wvs Eastern Michigan54-10
Wk 4Wat Penn State24-20
Wk 5Wvs Michigan State31-3

Power rating by week

UCLA is rated 4.4 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Wisconsin’s passing EPA against UCLA, 71 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Wisconsin’s passing EPA against UCLA’s defense
Wisconsin offense, 27th percentile · UCLA defense, 98th
UCLA’s explosive plays against Wisconsin’s defense
UCLA offense, 34th percentile · Wisconsin defense, 99th
Wisconsin’s success rate against UCLA’s defense
Wisconsin offense, 24th percentile · UCLA defense, 94th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

WisconsinUCLA

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

UCLA leads the series 7-4

11 meetings since 1938 · Wisconsin has won the last 3

2000 · neutral siteWisconsin 21-20
1998 · neutral siteWisconsin 38-31
1993 · neutral siteWisconsin 21-16
1982UCLA 51-26
1981UCLA 31-13

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

UCLA fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (60th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

UCLA favored by 1.5 · Total 42.5

How games like this usually go

UCLA by 1.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Wisconsin.

The total fell 7 points.

The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UCLA has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.1 points (±4.0), home against road — 2nd percentile of FBS.

49% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (25-26 home, 21-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.7 at home vs. away over 97 games — outside the ±6.3 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 1,660 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

UCLA2nd3-0
Wisconsin5th2-0

Full Big Ten standings

No. 12 UCLA beats Wisconsin 17-7