South Alabama beats Arkansas State 56-49
Team pages: South Alabama · Arkansas State
South Alabama beat Arkansas State 56-49. Share this game
We had South Alabama favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: Phillips 100-yd kickoff return TD, South Alabama goes ahead 14-7 (Q1, 1:31). South Alabama went from 26% to 62% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Alabama a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (South Alabama was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.
The edge changed hands 5 times before South Alabama won it.
Up to 80% in the second quarter, then Arkansas State lost it.
South Alabama · Q1 1:3120 unansweredSouth Alabama · Q2 1:51South Alabama 56-49 Arkansas State
South Alabama wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Arkansas State 49-56 South AlabamaArkansas State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 1:44Carter 1-yd TD run, ties it 7-7South Alabama 49% → 26% (−23)
- 2Q1 1:31Special teamsPhillips 100-yd kickoff return TD, South Alabama goes ahead 14-7South Alabama 26% → 62% (+36)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 1:44Carter 1-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Arkansas State 51% → 74% (+23)
- 2Q1 1:31Special teamsPhillips 100-yd kickoff return TD, South Alabama goes ahead 14-7Arkansas State 74% → 38% (−36)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Arkansas State -3), at 33% for South Alabama (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show South Alabama’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 14:19Owens sacked for a 6-yd lossQ1, 14:19 · South Alabama 0, Arkansas State 0▲6%South Alabama’s chance to win, 33% to 39%▲6%South Alabama’s chance to win, 33% to 39%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 7:21Martin 6-yd TD runSouth Alabama goes ahead 7-0Q1, 7:21 · South Alabama 7, Arkansas State 0▲10%South Alabama’s chance to win, 47% to 57%▲10%South Alabama’s chance to win, 47% to 57%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 1:31Phillips 100-yd kickoff return TDSouth Alabama goes ahead 14-7Q1, 1:31 · South Alabama 14, Arkansas State 7▲36%South Alabama’s chance to win, 26% to 62%▲36%South Alabama’s chance to win, 26% to 62%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 12:56Owens 19-yd TD pass to Summers; face mask on Usaties it 14-14Q2, 12:56 · South Alabama 14, Arkansas State 14▼17%South Alabama’s chance to win, 53% to 36%▼17%South Alabama’s chance to win, 53% to 36%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 4:37Phillips 3-yd TD runties it 21-21Q2, 4:37 · South Alabama 21, Arkansas State 21▲5%South Alabama’s chance to win, 25% to 30%▲5%South Alabama’s chance to win, 25% to 30%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 3:52Owens sacked for a 2-yd lossfumblesQ2, 3:52 · South Alabama 21, Arkansas State 21▲15%South Alabama’s chance to win, 29% to 44%▲15%South Alabama’s chance to win, 29% to 44%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 1:51Hollins 3-yd TD runSouth Alabama goes ahead 28-21Q2, 1:51 · South Alabama 28, Arkansas State 21▲19%South Alabama’s chance to win, 40% to 59%▲19%South Alabama’s chance to win, 40% to 59%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 1:44Owens intercepted by Lewis at the ASU16Q2, 1:44 · South Alabama 28, Arkansas State 21▲9%South Alabama’s chance to win, 59% to 68%▲9%South Alabama’s chance to win, 59% to 68%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 1:29Hollins 3-yd TD runSouth Alabama leads 34-21Q2, 1:29 · South Alabama 34, Arkansas State 21▲5%South Alabama’s chance to win, 68% to 73%▲5%South Alabama’s chance to win, 68% to 73%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:32Owens 20-yd TD pass to Summerscuts it to 34-28Q2, 0:32 · South Alabama 34, Arkansas State 28▼5%South Alabama’s chance to win, 73% to 68%▼5%South Alabama’s chance to win, 73% to 68%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 13:29Phillips 23-yd TD run, two-point try goodSouth Alabama leads 42-28Q3, 13:29 · South Alabama 42, Arkansas State 28▲16%South Alabama’s chance to win, 71% to 87%▲16%South Alabama’s chance to win, 71% to 87%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 8:05Owens intercepted by Darby at the USA16returned 58 yardsQ3, 8:05 · South Alabama 42, Arkansas State 28▲8%South Alabama’s chance to win, 85% to 93%▲8%South Alabama’s chance to win, 85% to 93%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 4:36Hollins 7-yd TD pass to GibbsSouth Alabama leads 49-28Q3, 4:36 · South Alabama 49, Arkansas State 28▲4%South Alabama’s chance to win, 93% to 97%▲4%South Alabama’s chance to win, 93% to 97%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 1:10Owens 4-yd TD pass to Baggettcuts it to 49-35Q3, 1:10 · South Alabama 49, Arkansas State 3549-35score after the play49-35score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 12:34Alabama run for a 2-yd lossfumblesQ4, 12:34 · South Alabama 56, Arkansas State 3556-35score after the play56-35score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 12:18Owens 15-yd TD pass to Bushcuts it to 56-42Q4, 12:18 · South Alabama 56, Arkansas State 42▼2%South Alabama’s chance to win, 95% to 93%▼2%South Alabama’s chance to win, 95% to 93%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
South Alabama scored on 8 of its 14 drives; Arkansas State on 7 of its 12.
South Alabama’s drives are teal, Arkansas State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Arkansas State’s side
Arkansas State’s best moment: Carter 1-yd TD run, ties it 7-7 (Q1 1:44). It lifted Arkansas State’s win chance by 23 points.
“I need ESPN to understand that viewers of South Alabama v Arkansas State are almost universally indifferent and uninterested in UCLA v Oregon...”
When fans got loud
Roaring
Fans were loudest as the game came down to the end.
The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
South Alabama’s chance to win the conference rose from 4% to 6%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 7, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
South Alabama 56, Arkansas State 49
South Alabama covered +3 by 10. The total, 105, went over 60.5.
| Team totals | South Alabama | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 372 | 516 |
| Passing | 6 of 10, 76 yds | 32 of 43, 418 yds |
| Rushing | 50 for 296 yds | 27 for 98 yds |
| First downs | 21 | 31 |
| Third down | 3 of 10 | 8 of 10 |
| Fourth down | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Penalties | 9 for 89 yds | 8 for 90 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:39 | 31:21 |
South Alabama leaders
- Passing Jared Hollins 6 of 10, 76 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Keenan Phillips 19 for 157 yds, 3 TD; PJ Martin 16 for 95 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Brendan Jenkins 1 for 36 yds; Rod Gibbs 2 for 16 yds, 1 TD
Arkansas State leaders
- Passing Trey Owens 32 of 43, 418 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Trey Owens 11 for 28 yds, 1 TD; Solomon Baggett 4 for 28 yds
- Receiving Hunter Summers 9 for 145 yds, 2 TD; Chauncy Cobb 2 for 49 yds
No rain and calm
80° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 8 mph from the northeast, gusts to 14
The usual here around this date is 69°, with about 7 in 10 games between 58° and 79°.
October game-day temperatures at Centennial Bank Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Jonesboro airport, 1.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
South Alabama · 3-2
Rated 60th in our preseason ratings, 80th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Arkansas State · 2-3
Rated 160th in our preseason ratings, 140th now, up 20 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Arkansas State
- Wk 1Lat Memphis24-42
- Wk 2Wvs West Georgia52-7
- Wk 3Lat TCU7-31
- Wk 4Wvs Kennesaw State17-14
- Wk 5Lat Louisiana20-23
South Alabama
- Wk 1Wvs SE Louisiana39-14
- Wk 2Lat Tulane24-28
- Wk 3Wvs Ohio41-36
- Wk 4Lat Kentucky21-45
- Wk 5Wvs UL Monroe52-35
Power rating by week
South Alabama is rated 4.2 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Arkansas State’s success rate against South Alabama, 79 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Arkansas State’s success rate against South Alabama’s defense
Arkansas State offense, 81st percentile · South Alabama defense, 2nd
South Alabama’s passing EPA against Arkansas State’s defense
South Alabama offense, 75th percentile · Arkansas State defense, 3rd
South Alabama’s explosive plays against Arkansas State’s defense
South Alabama offense, 82nd percentile · Arkansas State defense, 52nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Arkansas State leads the series 8-6
14 meetings since 2012 · Arkansas State has won the last 2
- 2025Arkansas State 15-14
- 2024Arkansas State 18-16
- 2023South Alabama 21-14
- 2022South Alabama 31-3
- 2021South Alabama 31-13
Each line is Arkansas State’s chance to win through that meeting. Arkansas State is 2-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
South Alabama fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (94th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 43%
- Line · 60%
- Arkansas State fans · 62nd
- South Alabama fans · 94th
Arkansas State favored by 3 · Total 60.5
How games like this usually go
Arkansas State by 3, on the usual path until 3:58 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Arkansas State.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: −1.5 → −3 · Total: 58.5 → 60.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Arkansas State is worth +4.3 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 54th percentile.
51% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (21-20 home, 16-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 384 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14Oct 14, 2025
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2024.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Arkansas State12th0-1
- South Alabama3rd1-0