Jacksonville State beats Florida International 27-24
Team pages: Florida International · Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State beat Florida International 27-24. Share this game
We had Jacksonville State favored. It won.
Next: Florida International lost to Middle Tennessee 26-23, Tue Oct 20
Next: Jacksonville State at New Mexico State, Wed Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET
Top comment in the game thread
NOOOO I WANTED TUESDAY NIGHT OT
How it swung
The turning point: Creel 34-yd pass to Johnson (Q4, 0:58). Jacksonville State went from 59% to 77% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Jacksonville State a 69% chance, and the closing betting line (Jacksonville State was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
A tight one: Jacksonville State bottomed out at 46% and won.
Florida International never had better than a 54% chance.
Jacksonville State 27-24 Florida International
Jacksonville State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Florida International 24-27 Jacksonville StateFlorida International lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 1:06Lyons 8-yd TD run, ties it 24-24Jacksonville State 78% → 61% (−17)
- 2Q4 0:58Creel 34-yd pass to JohnsonJacksonville State 59% → 77% (+18)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 1:06Lyons 8-yd TD run, ties it 24-24Florida International 22% → 39% (+17)
- 2Q4 0:58Creel 34-yd pass to JohnsonFlorida International 41% → 23% (−18)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q4 10:12The officials overturned a call on the field and ruled it a forward pass.
Ball’s out! Holy shit he got rocked.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 0:10A defensive lineman tried to catch the ball on a spike.
Spikterception would’ve been amazing
r/CFB game thread - Q4 0:02FIU misses a 49-yard field goal as fans criticize the rushed operationQuoted at the top of the page.
LMAO YOU HAD A WHOLE ASS TIMEOUT AND THE FG TEAM ALREADY ON THE FIELD HOW DO YOU FUCK THAT UP LMAO DO WE HAVE THE CUSA AURA NOW?
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Jacksonville State -3), at 70% for Jacksonville State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Every drive
Jacksonville State scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Florida International on 4 of its 11.
Jacksonville State’s drives are teal, Florida International’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Florida International’s side
Florida International’s best moment: Lyons 8-yd TD run, ties it 24-24 (Q3 1:06). It lifted Florida International’s win chance by 17 points.
“His line broke him there. That chaos shaked him just enough”
When fans got loud
Roaring
Fans were at their loudest with the game on the line.
The jump was roaring; the crowd was steady.
What it cost
Jacksonville State’s chance to win the conference rose from 27% to 31%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 13, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Jacksonville State plays at New Mexico State on Wed Oct 28 with a 31% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Jacksonville State 27, Florida International 24
The game landed on the closing spread. The total, 51, went over 44.5.
| Team totals | Florida International | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 404 | 387 |
| Passing | 25 of 41, 280 yds | 16 of 22, 214 yds |
| Rushing | 32 for 124 yds | 32 for 173 yds |
| First downs | 21 | 19 |
| Third down | 8 of 15 | 3 of 10 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 12 for 100 yds | 8 for 80 yds |
| Time of possession | 33:44 | 26:16 |
Florida International leaders
- Passing J.J. Kohl 24 of 38, 278 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Devonte Lyons 15 for 73 yds, 1 TD; Anthony Carrie 10 for 26 yds
- Receiving Maguire Anderson 8 for 133 yds, 2 TD; James Resar 5 for 46 yds
Jacksonville State leaders
- Passing Caden Creel 16 of 22, 214 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Caden Creel 19 for 95 yds; Justus Savage 7 for 44 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Deondre Johnson 4 for 93 yds, 1 TD; Luke Gilbert 3 for 55 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Florida International · 3-2
Rated 124th in our preseason ratings, 116th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Jacksonville State · 4-2
Rated 66th in our preseason ratings, 72nd now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
L 27-29 @ Ohio #54 of 668
lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog
Week by week
Jacksonville State
- Wk 1Wvs Eastern Kentucky49-7
- Wk 2Lat Ohio27-29
- Wk 3Wvs Georgia Southern31-27
- Wk 4Wvs Middle Tennessee23-13
- Wk 6Wat Kennesaw State27-26
Florida International
- Wk 1Lat South Florida9-19
- Wk 2Wvs Buffalo33-20
- Wk 3Lat Florida Atlantic10-16
- Wk 4Wvs Long Island University20-3
- Wk 6Wvs New Mexico State22-3
Power rating by week
Jacksonville State is rated 3.7 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Florida International’s explosive plays against Jacksonville State, 64 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida International’s explosive plays against Jacksonville State’s defense
Florida International offense, 22nd percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 86th
Florida International’s passing EPA against Jacksonville State’s defense
Florida International offense, 29th percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 63rd
Florida International’s EPA/play against Jacksonville State’s defense
Florida International offense, 24th percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 44th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Jacksonville State leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 2020 · Florida International won the last meeting
- 2025Florida International 27-21
- 2024Jacksonville State 34-31
- 2023Jacksonville State 41-16
- 2020Jacksonville State 19-10
Each line is Jacksonville State’s chance to win through that meeting. Jacksonville State is 3-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Florida International fans are in a better mood than Jacksonville State fans (91st vs 33rd among FBS fanbases), even with Jacksonville State favored.
- Model · 69%
- Line · 60%
- Jacksonville State fans · 33rd
- Florida International fans · 91st
Jacksonville State favored by 3 · Total 44.5
How games like this usually go
Jacksonville State by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The total fell 1 point.
Total: 45.5 → 44.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Jacksonville State is worth +7.7 points (±5.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 97th percentile.
86% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (18-3 home, 11-16 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 54 games — inside the ±7.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 644 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Jacksonville State1st2-0
- Florida International3rd1-0