LSU 31-0 Mississippi State (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Mississippi State · LSU

No. 16 Mississippi State4-20

No. 22 LSU5-231Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Tiger Stadium (LA), Baton Rouge, La. · Crowd 102,321

No. 22 LSU routed No. 16 Mississippi State 31-0.

We had LSU favored. It won.

Next: Mississippi State vs Oklahoma, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Mississippi State underdog by 4.5

Next: LSU at Auburn, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · LSU favored by 7.5

Top comment in the game thread

What a terrible call lmao

Q1 5:49 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave LSU an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (LSU was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.

FinalLSU 31-0 Mississippi StateLSU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 5:49Fans criticize a weak call on Puckett's interceptionNot to be a jerk but let’s give the 3rd string guy a chance if Puckett does this for another series.r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q1 3:27Fans argue officials failed to review Jackson Harris touchdown catchThey definitely checked in. I'm in the stadium and the ref stood over the ball until they got a signal in from the sideliner/CFB game threadFrom the front angle it’s clear that the ball was across the line with control. Not much to review after that viewr/CFB game thread
Q1 1:25LSU challenges incomplete Puckett pass, call upheld, MSU fans lament injuriesWhy are they not showing the replay where it’s obvious he didn’t catch it?r/CFB game thread
Q2 9:13Mississippi State fans rip Lebby for going for it on fourth down8 in the box and we run it. Lebby is a moronr/CFB game threadFlair up. Also ignore our good wins and offensive players being injured, but sure. Whatever suits your narrative.r/CFB game thread

LSU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (LSU -17.5), at 91% for LSU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a LSU or Mississippi State flair (338 and 430); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show LSU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

LSU scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Mississippi State on 0 of its 9.

LSU’s drives are teal, Mississippi State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“This game has turned into a hate watch of my own team. I don’t even think we get points this game lol.”

A Mississippi State fan

How fans reacted

Steady

It was the first quarter that had fans talking the most.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Idk what neutrals are hoping to gain from watching this”

A Mississippi State fan

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Mississippi State fans

lebby“Thank God that lebby always takes the ball first so we can give up the fast touchdown after half”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: injuries, best, now, least.

What it cost

LSU’s chance to make the playoff rose from 24% to 28%.

Make the playoff

Mississippi State · lost6% → ▼4%

LSU · won24% → ▲28%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Mississippi State plays vs Oklahoma on Sat Oct 24 with a 4% chance to make the playoff. LSU plays at Auburn on Sat Oct 24 with a 28% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

LSU 31, Mississippi State 0

LSU covered −17.5 by 13.5. The total, 31, stayed under 56.5.

Team totals	Mississippi State	LSU
Total yards	291	379
Passing	16 of 26, 121 yds	31 of 38, 289 yds
Rushing	42 for 170 yds	31 for 90 yds
First downs	18	28
Third down	7 of 15	8 of 13
Fourth down	0 of 5	1 of 1
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	7 for 75 yds	3 for 30 yds
Time of possession	30:10	29:50

Mississippi State leaders

Passing Parker Puckett 16 of 26, 121 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Kolin Wilson 18 for 71 yds; Parker Puckett 11 for 40 yds
Receiving Anthony Evans III 7 for 40 yds; Sanfrisco Magee 3 for 36 yds

LSU leaders

Passing Sam Leavitt 31 of 38, 289 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Dilin Jones 18 for 84 yds; Sam Leavitt 4 for 11 yds
Receiving Jackson Harris 6 for 85 yds, 2 TD; Dilin Jones 8 for 58 yds

No rain, gusts to 32 mph

63° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 15 mph from the north-northeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 32

A 32 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 96% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

October game-day temperatures at Tiger Stadium (LA)

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:52 left11:09 a.m.

Mississippi State 0, LSU 0 · LSU 91% to win

no rain · wind 19 mph from the northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 32 · 64°

Puckett 5-yd pass to Johnson

Measured at Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport, 8.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Mississippi State · 4-1

Rated 132nd in our preseason ratings, 70th now, up 62 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 7-point win over South Carolina as a 3-point underdog.

L 23-56 vs AlabamaTop 25 #8 of 668

lost by 33 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 31-24 vs MissouriTop 25 #39 of 668

won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 41-34 @ South Carolina #22 of 668

won by 7 as a 3-point underdog

W 38-13 @ Minnesota #40 of 668

won by 25 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 62-13 vs UL Monroe #162 of 668

won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite

Last three games

LSU · 4-2

Rated 31st in our preseason ratings, 12th now, up 19 spots.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 34-35 @ KentuckyTop 25 #44 of 668

lost by 1 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 63-14 vs McNeese #212 of 668

won by 49 as a 53.5-point favorite

W 35-6 vs Texas A&MTop 25 #15 of 668

won by 29 as an 8.5-point favorite

L 24-32 @ Ole MissTop 25 #14 of 668

lost by 8 as a 3-point favorite

W 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech #83 of 668

won by 31 as a 34.5-point favorite

W 51-10 vs ClemsonTop 25 #12 of 668

won by 41 as a 10-point favorite

Week by week

LSU

Wk 2Wvs Louisiana Tech45-14
Wk 3Lat Ole Miss24-32
Wk 4Wvs Texas A&M35-6
Wk 5Wvs McNeese63-14
Wk 6Lat Kentucky34-35

Mississippi State

Wk 1Wvs UL Monroe62-13
Wk 2Wat Minnesota38-13
Wk 3Wat South Carolina41-34
Wk 4Wvs Missouri31-24
Wk 5Lvs Alabama23-56

Power rating by week

LSU is rated 9.3 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: LSU’s success rate against Mississippi State, 82 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

LSU’s success rate against Mississippi State’s defense
LSU offense, 95th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 13th
LSU’s passing EPA against Mississippi State’s defense
LSU offense, 88th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 24th
LSU’s explosive plays against Mississippi State’s defense
LSU offense, 34th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 89th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Mississippi StateLSU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

LSU leads the series 74-37-3

114 meetings since 1902 · LSU has won the last 3

2023LSU 41-14
2022LSU 31-16
2021LSU 28-25
2020Mississippi State 44-34
2019LSU 36-13

Each line is LSU’s chance to win through that meeting. LSU is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Mississippi State fans are in a better mood than LSU fans (50th vs 1st among FBS fanbases), even with LSU favored.

LSU favored by 17.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

LSU by 17.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 5 points toward LSU.

The total fell 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

LSU is worth +7.1 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 92nd percentile.

82% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (42-9 home, 19-19 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 253 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Mississippi State 44, LSU 34Sep 26, 2020

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2017.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

LSU12th1-2
Mississippi State6th2-1

Full SEC standings

No. 22 LSU routs No. 16 Mississippi State 31-0