Florida 27-24 Texas (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Florida · Texas

Florida5-227

No. 7 Texas4-224Final

Sat, Oct 17 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas · Crowd 103,989

Florida beat No. 7 Texas 27-24 as a 13.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 2%.

Winners have been down to 2% or less in about 1 of every 70 games since 2018.

We had Texas favored. Florida won.

Next: Florida vs Georgia, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Florida underdog by 12.5

Next: Texas vs Ole Miss, Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Texas favored by 3.5

Top comment in the game thread

Insane holding from Texas O-line

Q4 6:22 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Manning sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumbles (Q4, 1:58). Florida went from 41% to 87% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida a 23% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida was a 13.5-point underdog) put it at 14%.

24 unanswered

Florida · Q4 10:40

FinalFlorida 27-24 TexasFlorida wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The four plays that swung it

1Q4 8:344th and 2Manning run for a 3-yd loss, turnover on downsFlorida 35% → 64% (+29)
2Q4 6:22Baugh 11-yd TD run, Florida leads 27-17Florida 66% → 87% (+21)
3Q4 2:32Special teams43-yd punt, Niblett returns it 17Florida 65% → 43% (−22)
4Q4 1:58FumbleManning sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumblesFlorida 41% → 87% (+46)

The four plays that swung it

1Q4 8:344th and 2Manning run for a 3-yd loss, turnover on downsTexas 65% → 36% (−29)
2Q4 6:22Baugh 11-yd TD run, Florida leads 27-17Texas 34% → 13% (−21)
3Q4 2:32Special teams43-yd punt, Niblett returns it 17Texas 35% → 57% (+22)
4Q4 1:58FumbleManning sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumblesTexas 59% → 13% (−46)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 9:07Texas fans demand Sarkisian fire Manning after sackFire Sark and bench Manning. Ridiculous performancer/CFB game thread
Q4 6:22Fans claim Texas right tackle held to allow Manning touchdownQuoted at the top of the page.How many holds will Texas get away withr/CFB game thread

Florida’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Texas -13.5), at 12% for Florida (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Texas or Florida flair (1,345 and 1,222); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Florida’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Florida scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Texas on 3 of its 11.

Florida’s drives are teal, Texas’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Texas’s side

Texas’s best moment: 43-yd punt, Niblett returns it 17 (Q4 2:32). It lifted Texas’s win chance by 22 points.

How Texas fans took it: “Trammell Jones too excited. Said yes sir instead of maam lol” r/CFB game thread

“I’m so sick of Texas political ads as a non-Texan”

A Florida fan

When fans got loud

Firestorm

It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was firestorm; the crowd was loud.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Florida fans

jones“Even if we lose, there is no way Philo wins the job back right? Loving what I’m seeing from Jones.”

Texas fans

sark“Yeah, he's not NFL ready, but he's also getting worse under Sark so maybe he needs a change of scenery.”

fire“Fire this team and coaches into the sun. It has to all be burned down. Disgrace to Texas.”

coach“Sark is a good coach who needs an OC and probably needs to give up on his buddy Banks Arch is mid. Bench him Exact same as last year”

now“Do all the telehealth doctors want to revise their Achilles diagnosis now?”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: back, run, don, hope.

The winner fell to 2%.

What it cost

Florida’s chance to make the playoff rose from 21% to 32%.

Make the playoff

Florida · won21% → ▲32%

Texas · lost77% → ▼66%

Win the conference

Florida · won1% → ▲2%

Texas · lost12% → ▼5%

Win the title

Florida · won1% → 1%

Texas · lost9% → ▼8%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Florida plays vs Georgia on Sat Oct 31 with a 32% chance to make the playoff. Texas plays vs Ole Miss on Sat Oct 24 with a 66% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Florida 27, Texas 24

Florida covered +13.5 by 16.5. The total, 51, stayed under 51.5.

Team totals	Florida	Texas
Total yards	313	272
Passing	22 of 35, 155 yds	14 of 20, 173 yds
Rushing	46 for 158 yds	30 for 99 yds
First downs	21	13
Third down	8 of 19	2 of 10
Fourth down	2 of 2	1 of 3
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	7 for 55 yds	1 for 15 yds
Time of possession	38:11	21:49

Florida leaders

Passing Tramell Jones Jr. 22 of 35, 155 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Jadan Baugh 25 for 91 yds, 1 TD; Tramell Jones Jr. 10 for 41 yds
Receiving Eric Singleton Jr. 7 for 43 yds; Bailey Stockton 4 for 31 yds

Texas leaders

Passing Arch Manning 14 of 20, 173 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Daylan Smothers 12 for 52 yds; Raleek Brown 8 for 47 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Emmett Mosley V 2 for 76 yds; Ryan Wingo 5 for 49 yds

No rain and calm

59° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the north-northeast, gusts to 20

The usual here around this date is 77°, with about 7 in 10 games between 68° and 84°.

Game-day temperatures at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 1:58 left2:12 p.m.

Florida 27, Texas 24 · Texas 13% to win

no rain · wind 5 mph from the north · 66°

Manning sacked for a 9-yd loss, fumbles

Measured at Austin - City/camp Mabry airport, 3.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Florida · 4-2

Rated 22nd in our preseason ratings, 27th now.

1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 19-38 vs South Carolina #31 of 668

lost by 19 as a 10.5-point favorite

L 17-45 @ MissouriTop 25 #28 of 668

lost by 28 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 52-28 vs Ole MissTop 25 #19 of 668

won by 24 as a 4-point favorite

W 44-39 @ Auburn #60 of 668

won by 5 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 52-3 vs Campbell #196 of 668

won by 49 as a 51.5-point favorite

W 66-21 vs Florida Atlantic #106 of 668

won by 45 as a 26.5-point favorite

Last three games

Texas · 4-1

Rated 5th in our preseason ratings, 5th now.

2-1 in its last three, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 24-27 @ OklahomaTop 25 #20 of 668

lost by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 20-17 @ TennesseeTop 25 #24 of 668

won by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 30-6 vs UTSA #11 of 668

won by 24 as a 29.5-point favorite

W 24-23 vs Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 668

won by 1 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 59-7 vs Texas State #31 of 668

won by 52 as a 29.5-point favorite

Week by week

Texas

Wk 1Wvs Texas State59-7
Wk 2Wvs Ohio State24-23
Wk 3Wvs UTSA30-6
Wk 4Wat Tennessee20-17
Wk 6Lat Oklahoma24-27

Florida

Wk 2Wvs Campbell52-3
Wk 3Wat Auburn44-39
Wk 4Wvs Ole Miss52-28
Wk 5Lat Missouri17-45
Wk 6Lvs South Carolina19-38

Power rating by week

Texas is rated 5.8 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Texas’s rushing EPA against Florida, 66 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Texas’s rushing EPA against Florida’s defense
Texas offense, 10th percentile · Florida defense, 76th
Florida’s explosive plays against Texas’s defense
Florida offense, 49th percentile · Texas defense, 98th
Texas’s EPA/play against Florida’s defense
Texas offense, 20th percentile · Florida defense, 49th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

FloridaTexas

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Texas leads the series 3-1-1

5 meetings since 1924 · Florida won the last meeting

2025Florida 29-21
2024Texas 49-17
1940Texas 26-0
1939Texas 12-0
1924Tie 7-7

Each line is Texas’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Texas fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (6th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Texas favored by 13.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Texas by 13.5, on the usual path until 9:07 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Texas.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Texas is worth +7.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 95th percentile.

81% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (44-10 home, 22-13 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.4 at home vs. away over 89 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 921 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Florida 29, Texas 21Oct 4, 2025

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Texas10th1-1
Florida8th2-2

Full SEC standings

Florida upsets No. 7 Texas 27-24