Noah Fifita could have cashed a portal check and chased a blue-blood. Instead the kid who keeps choosing Arizona signed up for one more, calling it 'all or nothing' and 'unfinished business' on his way out of the Holiday Bowl. Tucson is already saying Heisman. The rest of the country hasn't looked up.
5′10″ · 190 lb · Huntington Beach, CA · Servite HS
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 527 yds · 5 TD -- top 0.1% passing yards game. -- Best game: 325 pass yds, 4 TD, 4 rush yds, vs Northern Illinois
The play that turned itSwung BYU from 19% to 68% to win.Arizona at BYU · 41-19
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Noah Fifita could have cashed a portal check and chased a blue-blood. Instead the kid who keeps choosing Arizona signed up for one more, calling it 'all or nothing' and 'unfinished business' on his way out of the Holiday Bowl. Tucson is already saying Heisman. The rest of the country hasn't looked up.
How he plays
Operates within the system without forcing anything.
Success rate: 90th percentile.
The full scouting readAura™ · Him Watch
-1aura tax
60th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=80
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans read him warmer than the wider college football conversation does — a gap of 39.5 points in belief.
Also worth knowing:
“Noah Fifita Named to Preseason All-Big 12 Team”
The story this offseason isn't whether Fifita comes back -- he settled that the night of the loss to SMU, telling anyone listening he had unfinished business. It's the gap between how Arizona talks about him and how everyone else does. Brent Brennan calls him a 'Heisman-caliber candidate' and means it; CBS, On3 and SI all spent the spring arguing he's the Big 12's best quarterback, edging Brendan Sorsby and the new transfer arms for the top spot. He's the program's all-time passing touchdown leader (73 career scores, first nationally among 2026 returners) and the first Arizona QB to make first-team all-conference since 1975. And yet the national board has him at +10000 to win the Heisman -- one writer literally headlined the disconnect 'He Can Win The Heisman. So Why Is Nobody Talking About Him?'
The receipts say the 2025 bounce-back was real but not yet transcendent: 3,228 yards, 29 touchdowns, six picks, and play-by-play that ranks 64th percentile in pass success rate and 70th in touchdown rate but only 45th in EPA per dropback among 233 FBS quarterbacks. That's the tension our own signal flags -- the buzz around Fifita (78th percentile perception) is running about 18 points ahead of the production (60th), an aura tax the fanbase is happy to keep paying.
The quietly important variable: Seth Doege returns as coordinator, the first time in Fifita's college career he's kept the same play-caller in back-to-back years. Doege's Air Raid is what turned a four-win team into a nine-win one, and year-two fluency is the whole bet. The forward stake is the one every Wildcats board is chewing on: does the loyalty finally get rewarded with a Big 12 title and a Heisman invite, or does 'all or nothing' end the way Arizona seasons usually do?
SOURCES
His career
Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.
A steady, low-risk operator more than a gunslinger. The play-by-play paints a quarterback who wins on accuracy and decision-making rather than explosion: 64th percentile in pass success rate and 70th in touchdown rate, but a careful, underneath profile -- 67th percentile in average depth of target and just 35th in explosive-pass rate. He protects the ball reasonably (69th percentile interception rate) and his overall efficiency lands middle-of-the-pack at 45th percentile EPA per dropback. The 35th-percentile sack rate hints he'll eat some pressure behind a shaky front. He adds just enough as a runner (3 rushing scores) to keep defenses honest without being a designed-run threat. The ceiling lives in the rhythm of Doege's Air Raid; the question is whether he can stretch the field vertically enough to turn efficient into elite.
Written by our staff.
The role got bigger.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-BIG 12 · 1ST TEAM
All-Big 12 1st team (2025)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2022–2026
2 coachesCoaching transition mid-career: Jedd Fisch → Brent Brennan. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 35-7vs Northern Arizona | 22/29 | 262 | 2 | 0 | 9.0 | — | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 2 | L 17-28@ BYU | 23/31 | 230 | 1 | 1 | 7.4 | 84.9 | |
| Wk 3 | W 42-17vs Northern Illinois | 31/34 | 325 | 4 | 0 | 9.6 | 92.7 | Season-high 325 yds |
| Total | 76/94 | 817 | 7 | 1 | 8.7 | 88.8 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 35–7
262 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · 24 rush yds (5 car)
Dominant 28-point win at home against Northern Arizona.
With C. Ridley — 48 yards per punt · 3 punts · 2 inside the 20 · G. Richardson — 17 rush yds (1 car)
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +325 passing yards, +4 passing TD.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: success rate (90th percentile). Strength: completion % (99th percentile). Concern: sack rate (13th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
8.3948 of 126 QBsSack rate
7.8%109 of 126 QBsSacked on 7.8% of dropbacks (109 of 126) — and still 48 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 80.9% completion on 94 attempts · 50% completion on 10 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 94 dropbacks64Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
57.7%99th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -3.0% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
8.3791th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · -0.8 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
8.8%8th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +0.2% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (8 of 102 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 294 | 3.0 | 9.3 | 0.0 |
| Road1g | 230 | 1.0 | 7.4 | 1.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 272 | 2.3 | 8.7 | 0.3 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Brent Brennan
Pass share
53.6%
105 pass / 91 run
Plays / game
65.3
3 games
Scheme: Balanced.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
In the mix to repeat All-Big 12
Based on 2025: #8 of 17 Big 12 QBs
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Play style
A steady, low-risk operator more than a gunslinger. The play-by-play paints a quarterback who wins on accuracy and decision-making rather than explosion: 64th percentile in pass success rate and 70th in touchdown rate, but a careful, underneath profile -- 67th percentile in average depth of target and just 35th in explosive-pass rate. He protects the ball reasonably (69th percentile interception rate) and his overall efficiency lands middle-of-the-pack at 45th percentile EPA per dropback. The 35th-percentile sack rate hints he'll eat some pressure behind a shaky front. He adds just enough as a runner (3 rushing scores) to keep defenses honest without being a designed-run threat. The ceiling lives in the rhythm of Doege's Air Raid; the question is whether he can stretch the field vertically enough to turn efficient into elite.
Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.
Returning starter at quarterback for a 9-4 Arizona team that went +2 in the portal.
Player DNA
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
His 2026 production profile sits closest to Greg Ward Jr.’s 2016 season.
Matches Greg on
Differs from Greg on
Through 5 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Andrew Indorf’s path through Towson.
Andrew Indorf
Beau Brungard
Matches Andrew on
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Chandler Fields's graduate season at Louisiana (2023).
Differs from Chandler on
Player DNA
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #21 this season.
Purchase Jersey Headlines What makes Arizona QB Noah Fifita tick? Loyalty, generosity (ESPN) Inside Noah Fifita's loyalty to Arizona and his chase for a modern college football legacy (On3) With Noah Fifita back at helm, Arizona aiming for new heights: 'I think we've got the best quarterback in…