Arkansas beats North Alabama 31-14

North Alabama1-114
Arkansas1-031Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Ark. · Crowd 69,178SEC Network

Arkansas beat North Alabama 31-14.

We had Arkansas favored. It won.

Next: North Alabama lost to SE Louisiana 30-25, Sat Sep 12

Next: Arkansas lost to Utah 43-10, Sat Sep 12

Top comment in the game thread

I was all about reserving judgement until we saw the product on the field but uhhhhh not great so far

Q1 8:05 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 5

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arkansas a 69% chance, and the closing betting line (Arkansas was a 40.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

Arkansas led by 7 after the first quarter and by 14 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+21+17

Favored the whole way: Arkansas never fell below 98%.

North Alabama never had better than a 2% chance.

FinalArkansas 31-14 North AlabamaArkansas wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4ArkansasWon31-14ScoresChatter1 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute6 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute8 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4ArkansasWon31-14ScoresChatter1 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute6 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute8 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4ArkansasLowest 0%Lost14-31ScoresChatter1 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute6 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute8 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4ArkansasLowest 0%Lost14-31ScoresChatter1 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute6 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute0 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute8 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 12:36Arkansas fans react to a penalty on a punt return and criticize the offenseNaturally, a flag.r/CFB game threadBack That Ass Up after the false Start... 🤔 Not a bad choice to be honestr/CFB game thread
  2. Q1 8:05Arkansas fans lament poor offensive start after punt and turnover on downsA punt and a turnover on downs. ..r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
  3. Q2 5:46Arkansas fans argue Jackson fumbled, not tackled, as UNA recovers at ARK17That’s a fumbler/CFB game thread
  4. Q2 0:19Arkansas fans demand benching Jackson after his interception ends the halfWho was that throw to????r/CFB game thread
  5. Q4 11:02Wade runs for a touchdown as North Alabama fans celebrate the Lions' scoreTD Lions!!!! Roar Lions! 🦁r/CFB game threadNice throw and catch! X played at Memphis last year. Me thinks some of the UNA players have a chip on their shoulder to play against their old coach.r/CFB game thread
  6. Q4 5:41Arkansas fans mock nervousness as Jackson passes to Marshall for a first downHonestly surprised any of y’all were nervous in the first place.r/CFB game threadMore first downs than points…r/CFB game thread
Arkansas’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Arkansas -40.5), at 99% for Arkansas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

Arkansas scored on 5 of its 13 drives; North Alabama on 2 of its 13.

Arkansas’s drives are teal, North Alabama’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Arkansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntNorth Alabama: Punt, from 86 yards out to 80PuntArkansas: Turned over on downs, from 66 yards out to 49DownsNorth Alabama: Punt, from 51 yards out to 61PuntArkansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntNorth Alabama: Punt, from 79 yards out to 79PuntArkansas: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Alabama: Punt, from 75 yards out to 76PuntQ2Arkansas: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Alabama: Punt, from 75 yards out to 53PuntArkansas: Fumble, from 88 yards out to 83FumbleNorth Alabama: Fumble, from 17 yards out to 30FumbleArkansas: Punt, from 70 yards out to 56PuntNorth Alabama: Punt, from 95 yards out to 89PuntArkansas: Interception, from 26 yards out to 14InterceptionNorth Alabama: End of half, from 80 yards out to 75End of halfQ3North Alabama: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntArkansas: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Alabama: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntArkansas: Fumble, from 80 yards out to 65FumbleNorth Alabama: Touchdown, from 35 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4North Alabama: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 15Field goalNorth Alabama: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntArkansas: End of game, from 57 yards out to 59End of game
“I was all about reserving judgement until we saw the product on the field but uhhhhh not great so far”
An Arkansas fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were up and loud before the first quarter was out.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthArkansas fansNorth Alabama fansusual

Box score

Arkansas 31, North Alabama 14

North Alabama covered +40.5 by 23.5. The total, 45, stayed under 63.5.

North AlabamaArkansasTotal yardsNorth Alabama 153Arkansas 415153415Passing yardsNorth Alabama 113Arkansas 267113267Rushing yardsNorth Alabama 40Arkansas 14840148First downsNorth Alabama 7Arkansas 29729TurnoversNorth Alabama 1Arkansas 313Time of possessionNorth Alabama 18:35Arkansas 41:2518:3541:25
Team totalsNorth AlabamaArkansas
Total yards153415
Passing12 of 24, 113 yds24 of 35, 267 yds
Rushing20 for 40 yds49 for 148 yds
First downs729
Third down1 of 1010 of 17
Fourth down0 of 01 of 2
Turnovers13
Penalties9 for 79 yds8 for 74 yds
Time of possession18:3541:25

North Alabama leaders

  • Passing Destin Wade 12 of 23, 113 yds
  • Rushing Jalen Fletcher 4 for 24 yds; Chris McMillian 3 for 8 yds
  • Receiving Xavier Johnson 6 for 82 yds; Snap Reed 3 for 16 yds

Arkansas leaders

  • Passing KJ Jackson 24 of 35, 267 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Braylen Russell 17 for 49 yds, 1 TD; Sutton Smith 15 for 36 yds
  • Receiving Chris Marshall 7 for 79 yds; Sutton Smith 4 for 43 yds

Feels like 99° to 106° through the game

101° at kickoff · feels like 99° to 106° · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 16

A feels-like 106° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 106°0120°
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 106°0120°

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Warmer than every one of the 59 other games played at Razorback Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 79°, with about 7 in 10 games between 74° and 84°.

September game-day temperatures at Razorback Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Arkansas favoredNorth Alabama favored100%Win chanceArkansasRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphTemperature and feels likedegrees F90°110°feels like 99°air 96°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Arkansas favoredNorth Alabama favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Temperature and feels like · degrees F90°110°feels like 99°air 96°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:50 left3:22 p.m.
North Alabama 0, Arkansas 0 · Arkansas 99% to win
no rain · wind 8 mph from the east-northeast, gusts to 15 · 100°
Jackson 16-yd pass to Brown
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Fayetteville/drake airport, 4.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

North Alabama · 2-10

Rated 207th in our preseason ratings, 207th now.

Three straight losses.

L 34-36 vs Southern Utah #133 of 667

lost by 2 as an 18-point underdog

L 0-61 @ Tarleton State #66 of 667

lost by 61 as a 33.5-point underdog

L 17-24 vs West Georgia #182 of 667

lost by 7 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 33-34 @ Utah Tech #230 of 667

lost by 1 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 28-56 @ Austin Peay #111 of 667

lost by 28 as a 19.5-point underdog

W 35-14 vs Eastern Kentucky #195 of 667

won by 21 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 21-49 vs Central Arkansas #163 of 667

lost by 28 as a 4-point underdog

L 23-52 @ Abilene Christian #137 of 667

lost by 29 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 36-38 @ Illinois State #139 of 667

lost by 2 as a 17-point underdog

W 49-21 vs Northeastern State #359 of 667

L 21-30 @ Southeast Missouri State #174 of 667

lost by 9 as a 15.5-point underdog

L 6-55 @ Western Kentucky #83 of 667

lost by 49 as a 27.5-point underdog

North Alabama lost 6-55 at Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 4%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Arkansas · 2-10

Rated 145th in our preseason ratings.

L 17-31 vs MissouriTop 25 #15 of 667

lost by 14 as a 4.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 17-31 vs Missouri. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 65%.

L 37-52 @ TexasTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 15 as a 10.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 37-52 at Texas. Chance to win started at 25%, low under 1%, high 28%.

L 22-23 @ LSUTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 1 as a 4.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 22-23 at LSU. Chance to win started at 31%, low 10%, high 78%.

L 35-38 vs Mississippi State #41 of 667

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

Arkansas lost 35-38 vs Mississippi State. Chance to win started at 76%, low under 1%, high 97%.

L 24-33 vs AuburnTop 25 #18 of 667

lost by 9 as a 2.5-point favorite

Arkansas lost 24-33 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 68%, low 7%, high 88%.

L 42-45 vs Texas A&MTop 25 #10 of 667

lost by 3 as an 8.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 42-45 vs Texas A&M. Chance to win started at 38%, low under 1%, high 49%.

L 31-34 @ TennesseeTop 25 #11 of 667

lost by 3 as a 10.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 31-34 at Tennessee. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 47%.

L 13-56 vs Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 43 as a 5.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 13-56 vs Notre Dame. Chance to win started at 41%, low under 1%, high 54%.

L 31-32 @ MemphisTop 25 #27 of 667

lost by 1 as a 7.5-point favorite

Arkansas lost 31-32 at Memphis. Chance to win started at 58%, low 11%, high 97%.

L 35-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 6 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 56-14 vs Arkansas State #113 of 667

won by 42 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 52-7 vs Alabama A&M #180 of 667

won by 45 as a 45.5-point favorite

Arkansas won 52-7 vs Alabama A&M. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Arkansas’s chances here.

50-50Model · 69%Line · 100%North AlabamaArkansas

Arkansas favored by 40.5 · Total 63.5

How games like this usually go

Arkansas by 40.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 102° at kickoff.

North Alabama at Arkansas · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville

  • 102°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 41weather score, Harsh
  • Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 7 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Razorback Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 76, against 41 at 3:15 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • 11 am: 43, Harsh
  • noon: 41, Harsh
  • 2:30 pm: 40, Harsh
  • 3:15 pm: 41, Harsh (this game)
  • 4 pm: 42, Harsh
  • 6 pm: 62, Rough
  • 7 pm: 76, Mixed

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Arkansas is worth +2.1 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 18th percentile.

38% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (19-31 home, 8-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.7 at home vs. away over 92 games — outside the ±5.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 376 miles to get here.

Where next