USC 31-23 Penn State (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: USC · Penn State

No. 19 USC6-131

Penn State3-323Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa. · Crowd 114,419

No. 19 USC beat Penn State 31-23.

We had Penn State favored. USC won.

Next: USC at Wisconsin, Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · USC favored by 3

Next: Penn State lost to Michigan 21-18, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

Is Lynn even watching this game? Rushing 3 on 3rd down has not worked a single time. Fire him before this game ends

Q4 11:11 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Maiava 11-yd TD pass to Hines, USC goes ahead 14-7 (Q2, 13:36). USC went from 54% to 75% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave USC a 48% chance, and the closing betting line (USC was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

A tight one: USC bottomed out at 39% and won.

Penn State never had better than a 61% chance.

FinalUSC 31-23 Penn StateUSC wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 10:37Maiava 19-yd TD pass to Mosley, USC goes ahead 7-0USC 51% → 70% (+19)
2Q2 13:36Maiava 11-yd TD pass to Hines, USC goes ahead 14-7USC 54% → 75% (+21)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 10:37Maiava 19-yd TD pass to Mosley, USC goes ahead 7-0Penn State 49% → 30% (−19)
2Q2 13:36Maiava 11-yd TD pass to Hines, USC goes ahead 14-7Penn State 46% → 25% (−21)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 6:16The defense used a trick play involving a double pass.Stop with all the gimmicks 🤦🏻‍♂️r/CFB game thread
Q4 11:11Penn State fans rip coach Lynn for rushing three as Maiava throws touchdownQuoted at the top of the page.There are ways to adjust for not having a dominant pass rush. Penn State has made the bold choice to do the opposite of those things.r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:59USC forces fumble on Becht pass, Penn State fans rage at Kraft and CampbellMatt has now lost 3 straight B1G games. We should now ask him if he wants to be the coach of Penn State Football.r/CFB game threadFire Kraftr/CFB game thread

USC’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (USC -1.5), at 49% for USC (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Penn State or USC flair (1,659 and 1,171); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show USC’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

USC scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Penn State on 5 of its 9.

USC’s drives are teal, Penn State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Penn State’s side

Penn State’s best moment: Becht 13-yd TD pass to Rappleyea, ties it 7-7 (Q1 7:26). It lifted Penn State’s win chance by 18 points.

How Penn State fans took it: “Good win USC. We suck but a good win nonetheless” r/CFB game thread

“I thought PSU's secondary was the strength of the team?”

A USC fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were at their loudest with the game on the line.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Remeber when everyone complained about Franklin's clock management... this is an absolute disaster”

A Penn State fan

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

USC fans

mosley“This is a different team with Trent Mosley on the field. And I know that’s glazing a freshmen.”

Penn State fans

campbell“Campbell is saving his timeouts. If he saves 10 timeouts he can redeem them at the end of the season for a koozie.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: every, run, now, back.

Too close to call on 72% of plays.

What it cost

USC’s chance to make the playoff rose from 24% to 30%.

Make the playoff

USC · won24% → ▲30%

Penn State · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

USC · won6% → ▲8%

Penn State · lost0% → 0%

Win the title

USC · won1% → ▲2%

Penn State · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

USC plays at Wisconsin on Sat Oct 24 with a 30% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

USC 31, Penn State 23

USC covered −1.5 by 6.5. The total, 54, stayed under 54.5.

Team totals	USC	Penn State
Total yards	430	357
Passing	21 of 33, 301 yds	21 of 32, 289 yds
Rushing	30 for 129 yds	31 for 68 yds
First downs	25	18
Third down	5 of 11	2 of 12
Fourth down	2 of 2	5 of 5
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	3 for 25 yds	2 for 20 yds
Time of possession	30:08	29:52

USC leaders

Passing Jayden Maiava 21 of 33, 301 yds, 3 TD
Rushing King Miller 19 for 102 yds, 1 TD; Waymond Jordan 6 for 22 yds
Receiving Trent Mosley 9 for 111 yds, 1 TD; Tanook Hines 4 for 82 yds, 1 TD

Penn State leaders

Passing Rocco Becht 21 of 32, 289 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Carson Hansen 14 for 28 yds, 1 TD; Rocco Becht 10 for 20 yds
Receiving Chase Sowell 4 for 95 yds; Brett Eskildsen 4 for 70 yds

No rain through the game

61° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Beaver Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 13:36 left8:16 p.m.

USC 14, Penn State 7 · Penn State 25% to win

no rain · 61°

Maiava 11-yd TD pass to Hines, USC goes ahead 14-7

Measured at State College airport, 2.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

USC · 5-1

Rated 28th in our preseason ratings, 25th now.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 25-21 vs WashingtonTop 25 #32 of 668

won by 4 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 27-41 vs OregonTop 25 #4 of 668

lost by 14 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 42-35 @ Rutgers #89 of 668

won by 7 as a 21-point favorite

W 49-30 vs Louisiana #34 of 668

won by 19 as a 30.5-point favorite

W 39-0 vs Fresno State #51 of 668

won by 39 as a 21.5-point favorite

W 42-26 vs San José State #132 of 668

won by 16 as a 37.5-point favorite

Last three games

Penn State · 3-2

Rated 46th in our preseason ratings, 36th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 13-34 @ NorthwesternTop 25 #12 of 668

lost by 21 as a 3-point favorite

L 20-24 vs Wisconsin #66 of 668

lost by 4 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 55-13 vs Buffalo #145 of 668

won by 42 as a 39.5-point favorite

W 27-9 @ Temple #90 of 668

won by 18 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 45-0 vs Marshall #24 of 668

won by 45 as a 23.5-point favorite

Week by week

Penn State

Wk 1Wvs Marshall45-0
Wk 2Wat Temple27-9
Wk 3Wvs Buffalo55-13
Wk 4Lvs Wisconsin20-24
Wk 5Lat Northwestern13-34

USC

Wk 1Wvs Fresno State39-0
Wk 2Wvs Louisiana49-30
Wk 3Wat Rutgers42-35
Wk 4Lvs Oregon27-41
Wk 5Wvs Washington25-21

Power rating by week

USC is rated 1.8 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Penn State’s passing EPA against USC, 61 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Penn State’s passing EPA against USC’s defense
Penn State offense, 74th percentile · USC defense, 13th
USC’s EPA/play against Penn State’s defense
USC offense, 92nd percentile · Penn State defense, 47th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

USCPenn State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

USC leads the series 6-5

11 meetings since 1922 · Penn State won the last meeting

2024Penn State 33-30
2016 · neutral siteUSC 52-49
2008 · neutral siteUSC 38-24
2000USC 29-5
1996Penn State 24-7

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

USC fans are in a better mood than Penn State fans (39th vs 8th among FBS fanbases), even with Penn State favored.

USC favored by 1.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

USC by 1.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward USC.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.7%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Penn State is worth +3.9 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.

73% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (41-15 home, 26-15 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.7 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,247 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Penn State 33, USC 30Oct 12, 2024

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2017.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Penn State14th0-2
USC8th2-1

Full Big Ten standings

No. 19 USC beats Penn State 31-23

How it swung

Watch the plays

Every drive

From Penn State’s side

How fans reacted

Two crowds, one game

What it cost

Box score

USC leaders

Penn State leaders

No rain through the game

Jump to

Before kickoff

Recent games

Week by week

Penn State

USC

Power rating by week

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Penn State’s passing EPA against USC, 61 points

Season profile

The series

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

USC by 1.5, and it went to form

The market

Home field

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings