Ole Miss 31-3 Missouri (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Missouri · Ole Miss

No. 13 Missouri5-23

No. 9 Ole Miss5-131Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss. · Crowd 67,510

No. 9 Ole Miss routed No. 13 Missouri 31-3.

We had Missouri favored. Ole Miss won.

Next: Missouri at Arkansas, Sat Oct 31

Next: Ole Miss at Texas, Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Ole Miss underdog by 3.5

Top comment in the game thread

I repeat: Chambliss with a wide open receiver: 😴 Chambliss with window a the size of a fruit fly 👀

Q2 2:13 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ole Miss a 47% chance, and the closing betting line (Ole Miss was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

FinalOle Miss 31-3 MissouriOle Miss wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 14:45Ole Miss fans rip the decision to punt on fourth and one instead of snapping the ballAll that for a 4th and 1r/CFB game threadOh it’s on us. Okayr/CFB game thread
Q2 6:24Missouri misses a 23-yard field goal attempt in the red zoneMizzou will always Mizzou. It’s what we do bestr/CFB game thread
Q2 2:13Chambliss throws touchdown pass to Cunningham as Ole Miss extends lead to 21-3Quoted at the top of the page.

Ole Miss’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Ole Miss -4), at 67% for Ole Miss (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Ole Miss or Missouri flair (652 and 460); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Ole Miss’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Ole Miss scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Missouri on 1 of its 11.

Ole Miss’s drives are teal, Missouri’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Mizzou will always Mizzou. It’s what we do best”

A Missouri fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The loudest stretch came in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Missouri fans

yards“They already have like a full Baugh's worth of yards on the ground, gotta tighten that up”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: run, now, throw, every.

What it cost

Missouri’s chance to make the playoff fell from 35% to 27%.

Make the playoff

Missouri · lost35% → ▼27%

Ole Miss · won32% → ▲39%

Win the conference

Missouri · lost3% → ▼1%

Ole Miss · won4% → ▲5%

Win the title

Missouri · lost2% → ▼1%

Ole Miss · won2% → ▲3%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Missouri plays at Arkansas on Sat Oct 31 with a 27% chance to make the playoff. Ole Miss plays at Texas on Sat Oct 24 with a 39% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Ole Miss 31, Missouri 3

Ole Miss covered −4 by 24. The total, 34, stayed under 57.5.

Team totals	Missouri	Ole Miss
Total yards	378	498
Passing	25 of 44, 339 yds	20 of 36, 241 yds
Rushing	26 for 39 yds	38 for 257 yds
First downs	17	27
Third down	6 of 17	9 of 14
Fourth down	0 of 2	0 of 0
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	7 for 55 yds	7 for 55 yds
Time of possession	28:54	31:06

Missouri leaders

Passing Austin Simmons 25 of 44, 339 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Jamal Roberts 20 for 39 yds; Xai'Shaun Edwards 3 for 8 yds
Receiving Donovan Olugbode 9 for 127 yds; Cayden Lee 5 for 62 yds

Ole Miss leaders

Passing Trinidad Chambliss 20 of 36, 241 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Kewan Lacy 16 for 122 yds; Makhi Frazier 15 for 101 yds
Receiving Caleb Cunningham 3 for 61 yds, 1 TD; Traylon Ray 3 for 45 yds

No rain through the game

66° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 67°, with about 7 in 10 games between 53° and 79°.

October game-day temperatures at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:56 left2:36 p.m.

Missouri 0, Ole Miss 0 · Ole Miss 67% to win

no rain · 66°

Chambliss incomplete to Alexander

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Oxford airport, 1.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Missouri · 5-1

Rated 38th in our preseason ratings, 22nd now, up 16 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 28-point win over Florida as a 5.5-point underdog.

W 27-6 vs Texas A&MTop 25 #24 of 668

won by 21 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 45-17 vs FloridaTop 25 #16 of 668

won by 28 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 24-31 @ Mississippi StateTop 25 #63 of 668

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 27-17 vs Troy #113 of 668

won by 10 as a 26.5-point favorite

W 38-21 @ Kansas #78 of 668

won by 17 as a 4-point favorite

W 54-14 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff #250 of 668

won by 40 as a 55.5-point favorite

Last three games

Ole Miss · 4-1

Rated 12th in our preseason ratings, 18th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 8-point win over LSU as a 3-point underdog.

W 52-17 @ Vanderbilt #57 of 668

won by 35 as a 9.5-point favorite

L 28-52 @ FloridaTop 25 #11 of 668

lost by 24 as a 4-point underdog

W 32-24 vs LSUTop 25 #20 of 668

won by 8 as a 3-point underdog

W 41-9 vs Charlotte #162 of 668

won by 32 as a 44.5-point favorite

W 41-38 vs LouisvilleTop 25 #58 of 668

won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite

Week by week

Ole Miss

Wk 1Wvs Louisville41-38
Wk 2Wvs Charlotte41-9
Wk 3Wvs LSU32-24
Wk 4Lat Florida28-52
Wk 6Wat Vanderbilt52-17

Missouri

Wk 2Wat Kansas38-21
Wk 3Wvs Troy27-17
Wk 4Lat Mississippi State24-31
Wk 5Wvs Florida45-17
Wk 6Wvs Texas A&M27-6

Power rating by week

Ole Miss is rated 0.6 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Missouri’s explosive plays against Ole Miss, 50 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Missouri’s explosive plays against Ole Miss’s defense
Missouri offense, 89th percentile · Ole Miss defense, 39th
Missouri’s passing EPA against Ole Miss’s defense
Missouri offense, 77th percentile · Ole Miss defense, 32nd
Missouri’s EPA/play against Ole Miss’s defense
Missouri offense, 55th percentile · Ole Miss defense, 30th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MissouriOle Miss

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Missouri leads the series 7-1

8 meetings since 1973 · Missouri has won the last 6

2019Missouri 38-27
2013Missouri 24-10
2007Missouri 38-25
2006Missouri 34-7
1979Missouri 33-7

Each line is Ole Miss’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Missouri fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (38th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Ole Miss favored by 4 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Ole Miss by 4, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Missouri.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Ole Miss is worth +5.1 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 67th percentile.

75% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (39-13 home, 18-20 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.0 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 352 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Ole Miss7th2-1
Missouri5th2-1

Full SEC standings

No. 9 Ole Miss routs No. 13 Missouri 31-3