Arkansas 31-21 Vanderbilt (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Arkansas · Vanderbilt

Arkansas3-431

Vanderbilt3-421Final

Sat, Oct 17 · FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, Tenn. · Crowd 35,000

Arkansas beat Vanderbilt 31-21.

We had Vanderbilt favored. Arkansas won.

Next: Arkansas vs Missouri, Sat Oct 31

Next: Vanderbilt at Kentucky, Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Vanderbilt underdog by 10.5

Top comment in the game thread

The game is over and I still don't trust that we won

Q4 0:24 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Curtis intercepted by Mitchell at the Arkansas 31 (Q4, 3:46). Arkansas went from 69% to 87% to win. Fans right then: “2 minute timeout? 2 minutes to microwave the mashed potatoes.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arkansas a 28% chance, and the closing betting line (Arkansas was a 5.5-point underdog) put it at 33%.

Down to a 14% chance in the second quarter, Arkansas still won.

Up to an 86% chance in the second quarter, Vanderbilt still lost.

Pick-six

Arkansas · Q2 6:16

FinalArkansas 31-21 VanderbiltArkansas wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 6:16InterceptionCurtis intercepted by Johnson at the Vandy25 and returned for a TD, ties it 7-7Arkansas 14% → 31% (+17)
2Q4 3:46InterceptionCurtis intercepted by Mitchell at the Arkansas 31Arkansas 69% → 87% (+18)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 6:16InterceptionCurtis intercepted by Johnson at the Vandy25 and returned for a TD, ties it 7-7Vanderbilt 86% → 69% (−17)
2Q4 3:46InterceptionCurtis intercepted by Mitchell at the Arkansas 31Vanderbilt 31% → 13% (−18)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 10:04Arkansas fans rage at Silverfield's 3rd and 25 run call and Rush's puntOk seriously though. If you're going to suck (and we obviously are) you've got to at least have a damn decent punter. This is depressing.r/CFB game thread3rd and 25? Run up the middle incomingr/CFB game thread
Q3 7:13Can we hire a Louisiana lawyer and get Cam Little back?r/CFB game threadGilbert wiffing a kick...name a more iconic duo.r/CFB game thread
Q4 4:29Arkansas intercepts Curtis pass, fans celebrate the turnover with laughterCurtis is going to be fun to watch for the next couple of yearsr/CFB game thread
Q4 3:40Arkansas fans celebrate Jackson's deep pass to Hawkins for a first down2 minute timeout? 2 minutes to microwave the mashed potatoes.r/CFB game threadGuys? Is it happening?r/CFB game thread
Q4 0:24Arkansas fans celebrate as Gilbert kicks a field goal to take the lead with 24 seconds leftLET’S GO I LOST $10 BETTING AGAINST ARKANSASr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.

Arkansas’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Vanderbilt -5.5), at 25% for Arkansas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Vanderbilt or Arkansas flair (37 and 248); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Arkansas’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Arkansas scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Vanderbilt on 3 of its 12.

Arkansas’s drives are teal, Vanderbilt’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Vanderbilt’s side

Vanderbilt’s best moment: Young 3-yd TD run, ties it 21-21 (Q3 5:42). It lifted Vanderbilt’s win chance by 15 points.

How Vanderbilt fans took it: “Oh no, we suck again” r/CFB game thread

“This review is going to be close from that replay”

An Arkansas fan

When fans got loud

Busy

It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

The winner fell to 12%.

Box score

Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21

Arkansas covered +5.5 by 15.5. The total, 52, went over 48.5.

Team totals	Arkansas	Vanderbilt
Total yards	438	390
Passing	21 of 31, 251 yds	19 of 31, 274 yds
Rushing	41 for 187 yds	29 for 116 yds
First downs	24	20
Third down	8 of 16	5 of 11
Fourth down	1 of 1	0 of 0
Turnovers	0	2
Penalties	5 for 64 yds	5 for 35 yds
Time of possession	33:47	26:13

Arkansas leaders

Passing KJ Jackson 21 of 31, 251 yds
Rushing KJ Jackson 11 for 58 yds, 1 TD; Braylen Russell 14 for 51 yds
Receiving Antonio Jordan 5 for 74 yds; Jamari Hawkins 2 for 44 yds

Vanderbilt leaders

Passing Jared Curtis 19 of 31, 274 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Sedrick Alexander 10 for 57 yds, 1 TD; Makhilyn Young 9 for 45 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Junior Sherrill 8 for 99 yds, 1 TD; Ja'Cory Thomas 3 for 57 yds

No rain through the game

57° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 66°, with about 7 in 10 games between 52° and 77°.

October game-day temperatures at FirstBank Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 3:46 left9:05 p.m.

Arkansas 28, Vanderbilt 21 · Vanderbilt 13% to win

no rain · 52°

Curtis intercepted by Mitchell at the Arkansas 31

Measured at John C Tune airport, 5.1 miles away, and Nashville Metro airport, 6.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Arkansas · 2-4

Rated 145th in our preseason ratings, 118th now, up 27 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-24 vs TennesseeTop 25 #30 of 668

lost by 7 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 7-34 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #17 of 668

lost by 27 as a 13.5-point underdog

W 34-6 vs Tulsa #109 of 668

won by 28 as a 7-point favorite

L 17-45 vs GeorgiaTop 25 #2 of 668

lost by 28 as a 24.5-point underdog

L 10-43 @ UtahTop 25 #29 of 668

lost by 33 as a 13.5-point underdog

W 31-14 vs North Alabama #206 of 668

won by 17 as a 40.5-point favorite

Last three games

Vanderbilt · 3-3

Rated 45th in our preseason ratings, 57th now, down 12 spots.

Three straight losses.

L 17-52 vs Ole MissTop 25 #18 of 668

lost by 35 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 14-38 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #1 of 668

lost by 24 as a 25.5-point underdog

L 15-21 @ Auburn #56 of 668

lost by 6 as a 10-point underdog

W 35-31 vs NC State #37 of 668

won by 4 as a 3-point favorite

W 35-26 vs Delaware #41 of 668

won by 9 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 28-9 vs Austin Peay #105 of 668

won by 19 as a 29.5-point favorite

Week by week

Vanderbilt

Wk 2Wvs Delaware35-26
Wk 3Wvs NC State35-31
Wk 4Lat Auburn15-21
Wk 5Lat Georgia14-38
Wk 6Lvs Ole Miss17-52

Arkansas

Wk 2Lat Utah10-43
Wk 3Lvs Georgia17-45
Wk 4Wvs Tulsa34-6
Wk 5Lat Texas A&M7-34
Wk 6Lvs Tennessee17-24

Power rating by week

Vanderbilt is rated 5.7 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Vanderbilt’s rushing EPA against Arkansas, 40 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Arkansas’s explosive plays against Vanderbilt’s defense
Arkansas offense, 11th percentile · Vanderbilt defense, 50th
Vanderbilt’s rushing EPA against Arkansas’s defense
Vanderbilt offense, 58th percentile · Arkansas defense, 18th
Arkansas’s success rate against Vanderbilt’s defense
Arkansas offense, 42nd percentile · Vanderbilt defense, 24th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

ArkansasVanderbilt

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Arkansas leads the series 7-3

10 meetings since 1949 · Vanderbilt won the last meeting

2018Vanderbilt 45-31
2011Arkansas 31-28
2010Arkansas 49-14
2006Arkansas 21-19
2005Vanderbilt 28-24

Each line is Vanderbilt’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Vanderbilt fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (17th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Vanderbilt favored by 5.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Vanderbilt by 5.5, on the usual path until 6:23 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Arkansas.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Vanderbilt is worth +1.1 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 7th percentile.

41% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (20-29 home, 10-33 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.0 at home vs. away over 100 games — outside the ±6.4 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 411 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Vanderbilt16th0-3
Arkansas15th0-3

Full SEC standings

Arkansas beats Vanderbilt 31-21