Michigan 13-12 Western Michigan (Sep 5, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Western Michigan · Michigan

Western Michigan0-112

No. 16 Michigan1-013Final

Sat, Sep 5 · Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich. · Crowd 110,879

No. 16 Michigan beat Western Michigan 13-12.

We had Michigan favored. It won.

Next: Western Michigan beat Monmouth 49-14, Sat Sep 12

Next: Michigan beat Oklahoma 17-10, Sat Sep 12

Top comment in the game thread

So funny one of the announcers said after Western Michigan made their first field goal, “you’re not gonna beat Michigan with field goals” hahahaa that’s what’s about to happen

Q4 1:24 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 5

How it swung

The turning point: Underwood 47-yd TD pass to Buchanan, Michigan goes ahead 13-12 (Q4, 0:00). Michigan went from 36% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Michigan a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (Michigan was a 27.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Down to a 10% chance in the fourth quarter, Michigan still won.

Up to a 90% chance in the fourth quarter, Western Michigan still lost.

FinalMichigan 13-12 Western MichiganMichigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The four plays that swung it

1Q4 1:50FumbleUnderwood 13-yd run, fumblesMichigan 69% → 32% (−37)
2Q4 0:35Kelly 33-yd field goal, Western Michigan leads 12-7Michigan 56% → 19% (−37)
3Q4 0:11Underwood 28-yd pass to BuchananMichigan 10% → 37% (+27)
4Q4 0:00Underwood 47-yd TD pass to Buchanan, Michigan goes ahead 13-12Michigan 36% → 100% (+64)

The four plays that swung it

1Q4 1:50FumbleUnderwood 13-yd run, fumblesWestern Michigan 31% → 68% (+37)
2Q4 0:35Kelly 33-yd field goal, Western Michigan leads 12-7Western Michigan 44% → 81% (+37)
3Q4 0:11Underwood 28-yd pass to BuchananWestern Michigan 90% → 63% (−27)
4Q4 0:00Underwood 47-yd TD pass to Buchanan, Michigan goes ahead 13-12Western Michigan 64% → 0% (−64)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 1:20A player made an unusual play that reminded people of Semaj Morgan.The spirit of Semaj lives on.r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:09Underwood throws interception, fans mock his $12 million NIL dealOh so Underwood is ass ass. Jesus Christ.r/CFB game threadUnderwood is good, bro! You don’t get it! Yeah his stats are bad and he looks awful but you’ll see!r/CFB game thread
Q4 9:14Fans panic as Underwood's incomplete pass forces a punt with 9:14 leftBryce Underwood legit makes Nick Sheridan look like 2023 JJ McCarthyr/CFB game thread
Q4 9:02Officials uphold first down after measuring Buckley's run, sparking outrage"After further review, the call on the field stands because we think it would be really funny"r/CFB game threadWestern deserves that first down after the egregious Michigan facemask last drive that wasn't called somehow.r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:04Underwood fumbles, giving Western Michigan the ball with 1:50 left6,944 days ago Michigan lost to Appalachian State. Today they lose to the powerhouse that is western Michigan after paying them 7 figuresr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:24Western Michigan fans celebrate Dieter Kelly's field goal as Michigan fails to scoreQuoted at the top of the page.“Western Michigan’s kicker outscored all of Michigan’s team” was not a sentence I thought I’d say going into todayr/CFB game thread

Michigan’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Michigan -27.5), at 97% for Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Michigan or Western Michigan flair (2,902 and 127); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Michigan’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Michigan scored on 2 of its 10 drives; Western Michigan on 4 of its 11.

Michigan’s drives are teal, Western Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Western Michigan’s side

Western Michigan’s best moment: Kelly 33-yd field goal, Western Michigan leads 12-7 (Q4 0:35). It lifted Western Michigan’s win chance by 37 points.

How Western Michigan fans took it: “So Michigan just cheating again huh” r/CFB game thread

“I want western to protest the results of this game. The clock hit 0. The game was over. Unrank us”

A Michigan fan

When fans got loud

Firestorm

It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was firestorm; the crowd was firestorm.

The winner fell to 10%.

What it cost

Michigan’s chance to make the playoff rose from 29% to 31%.

Make the playoff

Western Michigan · lost3% → ▼2%

Michigan · won29% → ▲31%

Win the conference

Western Michigan · lost22% → ▲23%

Michigan · won5% → ▲6%

Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Michigan 13, Western Michigan 12

Western Michigan covered +27.5 by 26.5. The total, 25, stayed under 50.5.

Team totals	Western Michigan	Michigan
Total yards	221	276
Passing	15 of 21, 89 yds	12 of 23, 170 yds
Rushing	46 for 132 yds	25 for 106 yds
First downs	16	12
Third down	8 of 18	3 of 10
Fourth down	0 of 1	1 of 1
Turnovers	0	3
Penalties	5 for 40 yds	9 for 80 yds
Time of possession	40:08	19:52

Western Michigan leaders

Passing Broc Lowry 15 of 21, 89 yds
Rushing Jalen Buckley 19 for 62 yds; Broc Lowry 15 for 35 yds
Receiving Aveion Chenault 6 for 53 yds; Baylin Brooks 2 for 24 yds

Michigan leaders

Passing Bryce Underwood 12 of 22, 170 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Bryce Underwood 9 for 47 yds, 1 TD; Jordan Marshall 11 for 44 yds
Receiving JJ Buchanan 6 for 126 yds, 1 TD; Jordan Marshall 2 for 17 yds

No rain through the game

no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Michigan Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:00 left10:53 p.m.

Western Michigan 12, Michigan 13 · Michigan 100% to win

no rain

Underwood 47-yd TD pass to Buchanan, Michigan goes ahead 13-12

Measured at Ann Arbor airport, 2.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Western Michigan · 10-4

Rated 24th in our preseason ratings.

W 41-6 vs Kennesaw State #127 of 667

won by 35 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 23-13 vs Miami (OH) #83 of 667

won by 10 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 31-21 @ Eastern Michigan #138 of 667

won by 10 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 35-19 @ Northern Illinois #193 of 667

won by 16 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 17-13 vs Ohio #72 of 667

won by 4 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 24-21 vs Central Michigan #110 of 667

won by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 17-26 @ Miami (OH) #81 of 667

lost by 9 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 42-0 vs Ball State #196 of 667

won by 42 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 21-3 @ Massachusetts #207 of 667

won by 18 as a 12.5-point favorite

W 47-14 vs Rhode Island #137 of 667

won by 33 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 14-13 vs Toledo #57 of 667

won by 1 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 0-38 @ IllinoisTop 25 #35 of 667

lost by 38 as a 27.5-point underdog

L 30-33 vs North TexasTop 25 #94 of 667

lost by 3 as a 12.5-point underdog

L 6-23 @ Michigan State #68 of 667

lost by 17 as a 22.5-point underdog

Last three games · 2025 season

Michigan · 9-4

Rated 19th in our preseason ratings.

L 27-41 @ TexasTop 25 #10 of 667

lost by 14 as a 4-point underdog

L 9-27 vs Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

lost by 18 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 45-20 @ Maryland #96 of 667

won by 25 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 24-22 @ Northwestern #63 of 667

won by 2 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 21-16 vs Purdue #88 of 667

won by 5 as a 22.5-point favorite

W 31-20 @ Michigan State #83 of 667

won by 11 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 24-7 vs WashingtonTop 25 #25 of 667

won by 17 as a 4.5-point favorite

L 13-31 @ USCTop 25 #15 of 667

lost by 18 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 24-10 vs Wisconsin #59 of 667

won by 14 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 30-27 @ NebraskaTop 25 #33 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 63-3 vs Central Michigan #164 of 667

won by 60 as a 27.5-point favorite

L 13-24 @ OklahomaTop 25 #17 of 667

lost by 11 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 34-17 vs New Mexico #134 of 667

won by 17 as a 34.5-point favorite

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Western Michigan’s passing EPA against Michigan, 67 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Western Michigan’s explosive plays against Michigan’s defense
Western Michigan offense, 8th percentile · Michigan defense, 74th
Western Michigan’s passing EPA against Michigan’s defense
Western Michigan offense, 28th percentile · Michigan defense, 95th
Western Michigan’s EPA/play against Michigan’s defense
Western Michigan offense, 50th percentile · Michigan defense, 97th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Western MichiganMichigan

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Michigan leads the series 8-0

8 meetings since 1917 · Michigan has won the last 8

2021Michigan 47-14
2018Michigan 49-3
2011Michigan 34-10
2009Michigan 31-7
2002Michigan 35-12

Each line is Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Western Michigan fans are in a better mood than Michigan fans (80th vs 9th among FBS fanbases), even with Michigan favored.

Michigan favored by 27.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Michigan by 27.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Michigan.

The books’ cut: 3.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Michigan is worth +4.2 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 53rd percentile.

86% at home, 68% on the road against FBS opponents (50-8 home, 25-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.2 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 95 miles to get here.

No. 16 Michigan beats Western Michigan 13-12