Northwestern 24-21 Michigan State (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Northwestern · Michigan State

No. 25 Northwestern5-124

Michigan State2-521Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Mich.

No. 25 Northwestern beat Michigan State 24-21.

We had Northwestern favored. It won.

Next: Northwestern vs Rutgers, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Northwestern favored by 16.5

Next: Michigan State at UCLA, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Michigan State underdog by 14

Top comment in the game thread

This is what made Chiles so frustrating. If he played like he is this drive most of the time he’d be an NFL qb

Q3 11:56 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Boyd 33-yd field goal no good, blocked (Q4, 1:00). Northwestern went from 36% to 67% to win. Fans right then: “Everyone just look at the box score, look at absolutely nothing about the second half.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Northwestern a 92% chance, and the closing betting line (Northwestern was a 7.5-point favorite) put it at 73%.

Down to 22% in the fourth quarter, Northwestern came back to win.

Up to 78% in the fourth quarter, then Michigan State lost it.

Blocked field goalQ2 2:48Blocked field goalQ4 1:00

FinalNorthwestern 24-21 Michigan StateNorthwestern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The three plays that swung it

1Q4 7:24Chiles 1-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Northwestern 26% → 50% (+24)
2Q4 3:294th and 8Honig incomplete to Preckel, turnover on downsNorthwestern 62% → 38% (−24)
3Q4 1:00Boyd 33-yd field goal no good, blockedNorthwestern 36% → 67% (+31)

The three plays that swung it

1Q4 7:24Chiles 1-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Michigan State 74% → 50% (−24)
2Q4 3:294th and 8Honig incomplete to Preckel, turnover on downsMichigan State 38% → 62% (+24)
3Q4 1:00Boyd 33-yd field goal no good, blockedMichigan State 64% → 33% (−31)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 11:04Komolafe runs for a touchdown to give Northwestern a 10-7 leadDon’t usually see Komolafe light on his feet like that, he’s more of a battering ram type guyr/CFB game thread
Q3 11:56Chiles connects with Honig for 19 yards as fans debate his NFL potentialQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 11:48Milivojevic throws 53-yard touchdown pass to McCray, making it 21-13 Michigan StateTD MSU!!!!!r/CFB game thread
Q4 11:42Chiles ties game with touchdown run as Northwestern fans celebratePeople just don’t know ball. Everyone’s still spitting the “Chiles bad” takes from last yearr/CFB game threadHONIG MY MAN Had a beautiful TD catch last week, go check it out if you haven’t seen itr/CFB game thread
Q4 5:54Fans rip Northwestern for a failed fake punt on fourth downI thought northwestern was a smart school, doing a fake punt with 3:30 left on your own 35 was the dumbest thing possibler/CFB game threadI think they legit lost the game on the fake punt hahahar/CFB game thread
Q4 1:53Michigan State's field goal attempt is blocked by Northwestern with 1:00 remainingGlad we played for the fgr/CFB game threadAnnouncers should be banned from speaking before a field goal frr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:05Northwestern scores a game-winning field goal with two seconds remainingEveryone just look at the box score, look at absolutely nothing about the second half.r/CFB game thread

Northwestern’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Northwestern -7.5), at 60% for Northwestern (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Michigan State or Northwestern flair (363 and 243); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Northwestern’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Northwestern scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Michigan State on 3 of its 10.

Northwestern’s drives are teal, Michigan State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Michigan State’s side

Michigan State’s best moment: Honig incomplete to Preckel, turnover on downs (Q4 3:29). It lifted Michigan State’s win chance by 24 points.

How Michigan State fans took it: “Top 10 worst losses in school history” r/CFB game thread

“3 ppl could've blocked that individually lmao.. insane”

A Northwestern fan

When fans got loud

Loud

The closing stretch drew the loudest reaction of the night.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was steady.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Top 10 worst losses in school history”

A Michigan State fan

Too close to call on 71% of plays. The winner fell to 12%.

What it cost

Northwestern’s chance to make the playoff rose from 9% to 10%.

Make the playoff

Northwestern · won9% → ▲10%

Michigan State · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

Northwestern · won2% → ▲3%

Michigan State · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Northwestern plays vs Rutgers on Sat Oct 24 with a 10% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21

Michigan State covered +7.5 by 4.5. The total, 45, stayed under 50.5.

Team totals	Northwestern	Michigan State
Total yards	360	305
Passing	18 of 29, 226 yds	19 of 30, 216 yds
Rushing	42 for 134 yds	27 for 89 yds
First downs	23	15
Third down	7 of 14	3 of 12
Fourth down	0 of 1	2 of 4
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	4 for 20 yds	3 for 15 yds
Time of possession	34:55	25:05

Northwestern leaders

Passing Aidan Chiles 18 of 27, 226 yds
Rushing Caleb Komolafe 15 for 67 yds, 1 TD; Joseph Himon II 7 for 27 yds
Receiving Griffin Wilde 6 for 57 yds; Caleb Komolafe 4 for 51 yds

Michigan State leaders

Passing Alessio Milivojevic 19 of 30, 216 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Jaziun Patterson 15 for 72 yds; Alessio Milivojevic 7 for 17 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Chrishon Mccray 3 for 64 yds, 1 TD; Fredrick Moore 3 for 43 yds

No rain and calm

46° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the southwest, gusts to 17

October game-day temperatures at Spartan Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 1:00 left3:11 p.m.

Northwestern 21, Michigan State 21 · Michigan State 33% to win

no rain · wind 7 mph from the west-southwest, gusts to 17 · 53°

Boyd 33-yd field goal no good, blocked

Measured at Lansing airport, 6.0 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Northwestern · 4-1

Rated 14th in our preseason ratings, 14th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 21-point win over Penn State as a 3-point underdog.

W 45-14 vs Ball State #166 of 668

won by 31 as a 34.5-point favorite

W 34-13 vs Penn StateTop 25 #36 of 668

won by 21 as a 3-point underdog

L 23-29 @ IndianaTop 25 #6 of 668

lost by 6 as a 20.5-point underdog

W 41-7 vs Colorado #126 of 668

won by 34 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 34-18 vs South Dakota State #104 of 668

won by 16 as a 14-point favorite

Last three games

Michigan State · 2-4

Rated 170th in our preseason ratings, 132nd now, up 38 spots.

Three straight losses.

L 37-38 vs Illinois #78 of 668

lost by 1 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 3-31 @ Wisconsin #52 of 668

lost by 28 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 13-31 vs Nebraska #28 of 668

lost by 18 as a 6-point underdog

L 10-27 @ Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 668

lost by 17 as a 28.5-point underdog

W 35-7 vs Eastern Michigan #122 of 668

won by 28 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 30-20 vs Toledo #50 of 668

won by 10 as a 10-point favorite

Week by week

Michigan State

Wk 2Wvs Eastern Michigan35-7
Wk 3Lat Notre Dame10-27
Wk 4Lvs Nebraska13-31
Wk 5Lat Wisconsin3-31
Wk 6Lvs Illinois37-38

Northwestern

Wk 1Wvs South Dakota State34-18
Wk 3Wvs Colorado41-7
Wk 4Lat Indiana23-29
Wk 5Wvs Penn State34-13
Wk 6Wvs Ball State45-14

Power rating by week

Northwestern is rated 13.6 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Michigan State’s explosive plays against Northwestern, 84 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Michigan State’s explosive plays against Northwestern’s defense
Michigan State offense, 3rd percentile · Northwestern defense, 87th
Northwestern’s EPA/play against Michigan State’s defense
Northwestern offense, 89th percentile · Michigan State defense, 11th
Northwestern’s passing EPA against Michigan State’s defense
Northwestern offense, 82nd percentile · Michigan State defense, 15th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NorthwesternMichigan State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Michigan State leads the series 41-19

60 meetings since 1905 · Michigan State has won the last 3

2021Michigan State 38-21
2020Michigan State 29-20
2019Michigan State 31-10
2018Northwestern 29-19
2017Northwestern 39-31

Each line is Michigan State’s chance to win through that meeting. Michigan State is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Northwestern fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (56th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Northwestern favored by 7.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Northwestern by 7.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Michigan State.

The total rose 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Michigan State is worth +2.8 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 27th percentile.

53% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (27-24 home, 13-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.2 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±5.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 170 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Michigan State 29, Northwestern 20Nov 28, 2020

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2017.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Michigan State16th0-3
Northwestern10th1-1

Full Big Ten standings

No. 25 Northwestern beats Michigan State 24-21