Iowa State routs Southeast Missouri State 38-10

Southeast Missouri State1-110
Iowa State1-038Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa · Crowd 51,802ESPN+

Iowa State routed Southeast Missouri State 38-10.

We had Iowa State favored. It won.

Next: Southeast Missouri State lost to Southern Illinois 34-20, Sat Sep 12

Next: Iowa State lost to Iowa 16-13, Sat Sep 12

Top comment in the game thread

Ngoyi showcasing why he started out as a WR in the Campbell program

Q2 4:14 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 5

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Iowa State a 71% chance, and the closing betting line (Iowa State was a 29.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Iowa State led by 14 after the first quarter and by 21 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+28+28
FinalIowa State 38-10 Southeast Missouri StateIowa State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Iowa StateWon38-10ScoresChatter3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute6 comments a minute0 comments a minute7 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute6 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute8 comments a minute5 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute9 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute0 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Iowa StateWon38-10ScoresChatter3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute6 comments a minute0 comments a minute7 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute6 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute8 comments a minute5 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute9 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute0 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Iowa StateLowest 0%Lost10-38ScoresChatter3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute6 comments a minute0 comments a minute7 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute6 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute8 comments a minute5 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute9 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute0 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Iowa StateLowest 0%Lost10-38ScoresChatter3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute6 comments a minute0 comments a minute7 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute6 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute8 comments a minute5 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute9 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute0 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 10:08Jaylen Raynor runs for a touchdown to give Iowa State a 7-0 leadTHAT'S A JAYLEN RAYNOR TOUCHDOWNNNNr/CFB game thread
  2. Q1 8:50Iowa State fans mock their special teams after Flora muffing a puntOkay that’s your one and done to get out your system Florar/CFB game threadWe’re a real Iowa State team now! This feels like homer/CFB game thread
  3. Q2 4:14Ngoyi intercepts Ragland as Iowa State fans hail it a historic catchQuoted at the top of the page.
  4. Q4 12:26Iowa State fans react to failed onside kick attemptSo why did they get to re-kick it? If that’s the rule, then we should just onside it every time. If you think the other team is gonna bite, just pick it up early.r/CFB game thread
Iowa State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Iowa State -29.5), at 98% for Iowa State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Kickoff came 30 minutes late. No thunder was reported at Ames airport (1.9 miles away) around the delay.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Iowa State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 13:02Ragland sacked for a 6-yd lossQ1, 13:02 · Iowa State 0, Southeast Missouri State 00-0score after the play0-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 7:50Ragland sacked for a 8-yd lossQ1, 7:50 · Iowa State 7, Southeast Missouri State 07-0score after the play7-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q1, 2:27Raynor 24-yd TD pass to BenettiIowa State leads 14-0Q1, 2:27 · Iowa State 14, Southeast Missouri State 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 10:39Wilson 7-yd TD runcuts it to 14-7Q2, 10:39 · Iowa State 14, Southeast Missouri State 714-7score after the play14-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q2, 6:52Ragland sacked for a 10-yd lossturnover on downsQ2, 6:52 · Iowa State 14, Southeast Missouri State 714-7score after the play14-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q2, 4:54Flora 11-yd TD runIowa State leads 21-7Q2, 4:54 · Iowa State 21, Southeast Missouri State 721-7score after the play21-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q2, 4:14Ragland intercepted by Ngoyi at the ISU45Q2, 4:14 · Iowa State 21, Southeast Missouri State 721-7score after the play21-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q2, 2:50Raynor 10-yd TD pass to MillerIowa State leads 28-7Q2, 2:50 · Iowa State 28, Southeast Missouri State 728-7score after the play28-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  9. Q3, 13:18Ragland sacked for a 8-yd lossQ3, 13:18 · Iowa State 28, Southeast Missouri State 728-7score after the play28-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  10. Q3, 6:41Ragland 8-yd pass to BryantfumbledQ3, 6:41 · Iowa State 28, Southeast Missouri State 728-7score after the play28-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Iowa State scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Southeast Missouri State on 2 of its 13.

Iowa State’s drives are teal, Southeast Missouri State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Iowa State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 53PuntSoutheast Missouri State: Punt, from 86 yards out to 86PuntIowa State: Touchdown, from 56 yards out to 0TouchdownSoutheast Missouri State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 78PuntSoutheast Missouri State: Missed field goal, from 31 yards out to 34Missed FGIowa State: Punt, from 66 yards out to 49PuntSoutheast Missouri State: Punt, from 90 yards out to 85PuntIowa State: Touchdown, from 24 yards out to 0TouchdownSoutheast Missouri State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Iowa State: Punt, from 87 yards out to 80PuntSoutheast Missouri State: Turned over on downs, from 59 yards out to 60DownsIowa State: Touchdown, from 40 yards out to 0TouchdownSoutheast Missouri State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 73InterceptionIowa State: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownSoutheast Missouri State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 64PuntIowa State: End of half, from 87 yards out to 85End of halfQ3Southeast Missouri State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntIowa State: Punt, from 85 yards out to 86PuntSoutheast Missouri State: Fumble, from 42 yards out to 55FumbleIowa State: Field goal, from 45 yards out to 15Field goalSoutheast Missouri State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 22Field goalQ4Iowa State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSoutheast Missouri State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 50FumbleIowa State: Punt, from 50 yards out to 44PuntSoutheast Missouri State: End of game, from 87 yards out to 67End of game
“Was not expecting the possible INT of the year in a Week 1 FBS-FCS game.”
A fan of another team

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthIowa State fansSoutheast Missouri State fansusual

Box score

Iowa State 38, Southeast Missouri State 10

Southeast Missouri State covered +29.5 by 1.5. The total, 48, stayed under 52.5.

Southeast Missouri StateIowa StateTotal yardsSoutheast Missouri State 209Iowa State 303209303Passing yardsSoutheast Missouri State 142Iowa State 195142195Rushing yardsSoutheast Missouri State 67Iowa State 10867108First downsSoutheast Missouri State 14Iowa State 151415TurnoversSoutheast Missouri State 3Iowa State 131Time of possessionSoutheast Missouri State 36:52Iowa State 23:0836:5223:08
Team totalsSoutheast Missouri StateIowa State
Total yards209303
Passing17 of 22, 142 yds9 of 17, 195 yds
Rushing45 for 67 yds31 for 108 yds
First downs1415
Third down5 of 164 of 10
Fourth down2 of 30 of 0
Turnovers31
Penalties7 for 57 yds4 for 40 yds
Time of possession36:5223:08

Southeast Missouri State leaders

  • Passing Braylen Ragland 17 of 22, 142 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Khyair Spain 16 for 72 yds; Tyrell Reed Jr. 9 for 27 yds
  • Receiving John Anthony 1 for 40 yds; Jobe Bryant 7 for 40 yds

Iowa State leaders

  • Passing Jaylen Raynor 8 of 16, 184 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Aiden Flora 7 for 45 yds, 1 TD; Jaylen Raynor 7 for 32 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Dominic Overby 2 for 85 yds; Omari Hayes 2 for 54 yds

Kickoff came 30 minutes late

82° at kickoff · feels like 85° to 100° · no rain recorded

A feels-like 100° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 100°0120°
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 100°0120°

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

No thunder was reported at Ames airport (1.9 miles away) around the delay.

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 65 other games played at Jack Trice Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 73°, with about 7 in 10 games between 64° and 86°.

September game-day temperatures at Jack Trice Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Iowa State favoredSoutheast Missouri State favored100%Win chanceIowa StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels likedegrees F75°110°feels like 100°air 88°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Iowa State favoredSoutheast Missouri State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels like · degrees F75°110°feels like 100°air 88°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:52 left12:33 p.m.
Southeast Missouri State 0, Iowa State 0 · Iowa State 98% to win
no rain · 82°
Flora 17-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Ames airport, 1.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Southeast Missouri State · 4-8

Rated 226th in our preseason ratings, 226th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 13-30 vs Lindenwood #178 of 667

lost by 17 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 22-17 @ Western Illinois #237 of 667

won by 5 as an 8-point favorite

L 24-27 @ Gardner-Webb #167 of 667

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 17-23 vs Charleston Southern #210 of 667

lost by 6 as a 10.5-point favorite

L 23-42 @ Tennessee Tech #82 of 667

lost by 19 as a 21.5-point underdog

W 42-13 vs Eastern Illinois #236 of 667

won by 29 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 28-12 vs Tennessee State #242 of 667

won by 16 as a 16.5-point favorite

L 10-34 @ UT Martin #173 of 667

lost by 24 as a 3-point favorite

L 31-59 vs Southern Illinois #130 of 667

lost by 28 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 14-41 @ North Dakota State #125 of 667

lost by 27 as a 31.5-point underdog

Southeast Missouri State lost 14-41 at North Dakota State. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

W 30-21 vs North Alabama #205 of 667

won by 9 as a 15.5-point favorite

L 24-42 @ Arkansas State #97 of 667

lost by 18 as a 15.5-point underdog

Southeast Missouri State lost 24-42 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 21%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Iowa State · 8-4

Rated 162nd in our preseason ratings.

W 20-13 @ Oklahoma State #155 of 667

won by 7 as a 13.5-point favorite

Iowa State won 20-13 at Oklahoma State. Chance to win started at 76%, low 74%, high better than 99%.

W 38-14 vs Kansas #67 of 667

won by 24 as a 3.5-point favorite

Iowa State won 38-14 vs Kansas. Chance to win started at 70%, low 70%, high better than 99%.

W 20-17 @ TCUTop 25 #33 of 667

won by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog

Iowa State won 20-17 at TCU. Chance to win started at 24%, low 6%, high better than 99%.

L 19-24 vs Arizona StateTop 25 #43 of 667

lost by 5 as an 8.5-point favorite

Iowa State lost 19-24 vs Arizona State. Chance to win started at 79%, low 15%, high 87%.

L 27-41 vs BYUTop 25 #31 of 667

lost by 14 as a 2.5-point favorite

Iowa State lost 27-41 vs BYU. Chance to win started at 79%, low 2%, high 92%.

L 17-24 @ Colorado #53 of 667

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

Iowa State lost 17-24 at Colorado. Chance to win started at 53%, low 9%, high 62%.

L 30-38 @ CincinnatiTop 25 #41 of 667

lost by 8 as a 1.5-point underdog

Iowa State lost 30-38 at Cincinnati. Chance to win started at 43%, low under 1%, high 43%.

W 39-14 vs ArizonaTop 25 #76 of 667

won by 25 as a 4.5-point favorite

Iowa State won 39-14 vs Arizona. Chance to win started at 69%, low 58%, high better than 99%.

W 24-16 @ Arkansas State #123 of 667

won by 8 as a 20.5-point favorite

Iowa State won 24-16 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 88%, low 71%, high 99%.

W 16-13 vs IowaTop 25 #40 of 667

won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite

Iowa State won 16-13 vs Iowa. Chance to win started at 67%, low 47%, high better than 99%.

W 55-7 vs South Dakota #110 of 667

won by 48 as a 13.5-point favorite

Iowa State won 55-7 vs South Dakota. Chance to win started at 91%, low 83%, high better than 99%.

W 24-21 @ Kansas StateTop 25 #38 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

Iowa State won 24-21 vs Kansas State. Chance to win started at 34%, low 30%, high 96%.

The series

Iowa State leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2022 · Iowa State won the last meeting

  • 2022Iowa State 42-10Iowa State won 42-10 vs Southeast Missouri State. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Iowa State’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Iowa State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 71%Line · 99%Southeast Missouri StateIowa State

Iowa State favored by 29.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Iowa State by 29.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The total fell 1 point.

opened 53.5now 52.5

Total: 53.5 → 52.5

The books’ cut: 2.7%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 93° at kickoff.

Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Jack Trice Stadium, Ames

  • 93°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 53weather score, Rough
  • Middleof the day's 7 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was in the middle of the day's seven kickoff times. At Jack Trice Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 77, against 53 at noon.

  • 11 am: 57, Rough
  • noon: 53, Rough (this game)
  • 2:30 pm: 45, Harsh
  • 3:15 pm: 44, Harsh
  • 4 pm: 43, Harsh
  • 6 pm: 63, Rough
  • 7 pm: 77, Mixed

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Iowa State is worth +3.9 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.

65% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (32-17 home, 21-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.2 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 392 miles to get here.

The story going in

Where next