North Texas beats Florida Atlantic 48-41
Team pages: Florida Atlantic · North Texas
North Texas beat Florida Atlantic 48-41. Share this game
We had North Texas favored. It won.
Next: Florida Atlantic vs UTSA, Thu Nov 5 · 8:00 PM ET
UNT not collapse in important home game challenge level IMPOSSIBLE
A North Texas fanHow it swung
The turning point: 39-yd punt, Messer returns it 17 (Q1, 4:37). North Texas went from 86% to 71% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Texas an 83% chance, and the closing betting line (North Texas was a 15.5-point favorite) put it at 89%.
Favored the whole way: North Texas never fell below 65%.
Florida Atlantic never had better than a 34% chance.
North Texas 48-41 Florida Atlantic
North Texas wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Florida Atlantic 41-48 North TexasFlorida Atlantic lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 4:37Special teams39-yd punt, Messer returns it 17North Texas 86% → 71% (−15)
- 2Q2 7:27Jackson 30-yd pass to CarnesNorth Texas 60% → 72% (+12)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 4:37Special teams39-yd punt, Messer returns it 17Florida Atlantic 14% → 29% (+15)
- 2Q2 7:27Jackson 30-yd pass to CarnesFlorida Atlantic 40% → 28% (−12)
"If you're white, you gotta be smart" is a wild quote out of context
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 8:30A quarterback threw a deep pass for a touchdown.
That man is a cheat code
r/CFB game thread - Q2 1:51White rushes for a touchdown as fans praise the broadcast crew
JAHEIM WHITE IS HIM
r/CFB game threadOK I like this broadcast crew
r/CFB game thread - Q2 0:54Officials overturn a North Texas touchdown pass to Valsin, ruling him out of bounds
Do we have another Tulsa TD called on us?
r/CFB game threadOut of bounds based on the in stadium replay
r/CFB game thread - Q2 0:43White fumbles after catch, giving FAU ball with 16 seconds left in half
"If you're white you got to be smart" Hey, phrasing
r/CFB game thread - Q2 0:07A player fumbled the ball in an unusual manner.
Still frame of him floating 6 feet in the air fumbling the ball going to be on the projector when they enter the team meeting on Friday.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 13:23North Texas fans celebrate Taylor's interception of Veltkamp's pass
INTERCEPTION!!
r/CFB game threadLFG CALL YOUR SHOT NEAL WE GOT HIM TO THROW US ONE
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (North Texas -15.5), at 90% for North Texas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show North Texas’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 6:14Veltkamp 18-yd TD pass to HochFlorida Atlantic goes ahead 7-3Q1, 6:14 · North Texas 3, Florida Atlantic 73-7score after the play3-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 11:33Jackson 8-yd TD pass to Tiptonties it 10-10Q2, 11:33 · North Texas 10, Florida Atlantic 10▲5%North Texas’s chance to win, 76% to 81%▲5%North Texas’s chance to win, 76% to 81%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 8:30Veltkamp 27-yd TD pass to MesserFlorida Atlantic goes ahead 17-10Q2, 8:30 · North Texas 10, Florida Atlantic 17▼7%North Texas’s chance to win, 75% to 68%▼7%North Texas’s chance to win, 75% to 68%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 1:40White 59-yd TD runNorth Texas goes ahead 24-17Q2, 1:40 · North Texas 24, Florida Atlantic 17▲10%North Texas’s chance to win, 82% to 92%▲10%North Texas’s chance to win, 82% to 92%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:39Veltkamp 12-yd TD pass to Messerties it 24-24Q2, 0:39 · North Texas 24, Florida Atlantic 24▼5%North Texas’s chance to win, 91% to 86%▼5%North Texas’s chance to win, 91% to 86%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:16Jackson 13-yd pass to WhitefumbledQ2, 0:16 · North Texas 24, Florida Atlantic 24▼8%North Texas’s chance to win, 90% to 82%▼8%North Texas’s chance to win, 90% to 82%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 4:01Veltkamp 22-yd TD pass to Shields-Duttoncuts it to 34-31Q3, 4:01 · North Texas 34, Florida Atlantic 31▼7%North Texas’s chance to win, 94% to 87%▼7%North Texas’s chance to win, 94% to 87%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 0:17White 1-yd TD runNorth Texas leads 41-31Q3, 0:17 · North Texas 41, Florida Atlantic 31▲9%North Texas’s chance to win, 88% to 97%▲9%North Texas’s chance to win, 88% to 97%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 13:08Veltkamp intercepted by Taylor at the UNT02Q4, 13:08 · North Texas 41, Florida Atlantic 3141-31score after the play41-31score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 8:26Veltkamp 34-yd TD pass to Messercuts it to 41-38Q4, 8:26 · North Texas 41, Florida Atlantic 38▼10%North Texas’s chance to win, 97% to 87%▼10%North Texas’s chance to win, 97% to 87%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 4:02Jackson 2-yd TD pass to KochNorth Texas leads 48-38Q4, 4:02 · North Texas 48, Florida Atlantic 38▲7%North Texas’s chance to win, 91% to 98%▲7%North Texas’s chance to win, 91% to 98%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
North Texas scored on 8 of its 13 drives; Florida Atlantic on 7 of its 13.
North Texas’s drives are teal, Florida Atlantic’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Florida Atlantic’s side
Florida Atlantic’s best moment: Veltkamp 34-yd TD pass to Messer, cuts it to 41-38 (Q4 8:26). It lifted Florida Atlantic’s win chance by 10 points.
When fans got loud
Busy
Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.
The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.
What it cost
North Texas’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 2%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 28, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Florida Atlantic plays vs UTSA on Thu Nov 5 with a 1% chance to win the conference. North Texas plays vs Rice on Sat Nov 7 with a 2% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
North Texas 48, Florida Atlantic 41
Florida Atlantic covered +15.5 by 8.5. The total, 89, went over 78.5.
| Team totals | Florida Atlantic | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 523 | 644 |
| Passing | 37 of 57, 452 yds | 33 of 46, 404 yds |
| Rushing | 28 for 71 yds | 36 for 240 yds |
| First downs | 29 | 31 |
| Third down | 10 of 18 | 8 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | 7 for 58 yds | 8 for 60 yds |
| Time of possession | 24:55 | 35:05 |
Florida Atlantic leaders
- Passing Caden Veltkamp 37 of 56, 452 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Leonard Farrow 14 for 47 yds; Kaden Shields-Dutton 3 for 31 yds
- Receiving Easton Messer 16 for 189 yds, 3 TD; Dom Henry 10 for 116 yds
North Texas leaders
- Passing Tayven Jackson 33 of 46, 404 yds, 4 TD
- Rushing Jahiem White 26 for 193 yds, 2 TD; Tayven Jackson 5 for 41 yds
- Receiving Justin Stevenson 9 for 119 yds, 1 TD; Max Reese 7 for 85 yds
No rain and calm
71° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 7 mph from the south, gusts to 15
October game-day temperatures at DATCU Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Denton airport, 2.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Florida Atlantic · 5-2
Rated 108th in our preseason ratings, 120th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 66-10 vs Texas Southern No. 228 of 668 teams
won by 56 as a 47.5-point favorite
Last three games
North Texas · 5-2
Rated 135th in our preseason ratings, 54th now, up 81 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Week by week
North Texas
- Wk 3Lat Texas State35-49
- Wk 4Wvs Houston Christian63-14
- Wk 5Wat Tulsa45-44
- Wk 6Wvs Charlotte50-10
- Wk 8Wat Navy49-39
Florida Atlantic
- Wk 3Wvs Florida International16-10
- Wk 4Wat UL Monroe45-17
- Wk 5Wvs Texas Southern66-10
- Wk 7Lat Army24-56
- Wk 8Wvs Rice51-49
Power rating by week
North Texas is rated 6.6 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: North Texas’s EPA/play against Florida Atlantic, 95 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
North Texas’s EPA/play against Florida Atlantic’s defense
North Texas offense, 97th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 2nd
North Texas’s explosive plays against Florida Atlantic’s defense
North Texas offense, 88th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 2nd
Florida Atlantic’s passing EPA against North Texas’s defense
Florida Atlantic offense, 78th percentile · North Texas defense, 1st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Florida Atlantic leads the series 8-7
15 meetings since 2004 · North Texas has won the last 3
- 2024North Texas 41-37
- 2022North Texas 45-28
- 2018North Texas 41-38
- 2017Florida Atlantic 41-17
- 2017Florida Atlantic 69-31
Each line is North Texas’s chance to win through that meeting. North Texas is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
North Texas fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (80th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
North Texas favored by 15.5 · Total 78.5
How games like this usually go
North Texas by 15.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 264 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward North Texas.
The total rose 9 points.
Spread: −12.5 → −15.5 · Total: 69.5 → 78.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
North Texas is worth +3.7 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 40th percentile.
59% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (26-18 home, 23-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.4 at home vs. away over 103 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,124 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Florida Atlantic 41, North Texas 17Conference USA Championship · Dec 2, 2017
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- North Texas3rd3-0
- Florida Atlantic6th2-1