Baylor 41-9 UCF (Oct 30, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Baylor · UCF

Baylor5-341

UCF4-49Final

Fri, Oct 30 · FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Fla. · Crowd 45,906

Baylor routed UCF 41-9.

We had Baylor favored. It won.

Next: Baylor vs Iowa State, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET · Baylor favored by 10

Next: UCF at Kansas, Sat Nov 7 · 3:45 PM ET · UCF underdog by 2.5

Look up videos of the opening game against Texas in 07, before it was reinforced. Now that was really bouncing

A UCF fan

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Baylor a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Baylor was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.

FinalBaylor 41-9 UCFBaylor wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The play that swung it

1Q1 4:06Lagway 4-yd TD pass to Livingston, Baylor goes ahead 7-0Baylor 59% → 72% (+13)

The play that swung it

1Q1 4:06Lagway 4-yd TD pass to Livingston, Baylor goes ahead 7-0UCF 42% → 28% (−14)

ARANDA WAS HOLDING US BACK!

Q3 8:29 · A Baylor fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 1:28Fans criticize Jenkins' poor play as UCF trails Baylor 17-3 late in the first halfThis cannot be the same Jenkins who played last weekr/CFB game threadFire jenkins into the sunr/CFB game thread
Q3 10:07Lagway throws deep touchdown to Livingston as Baylor fans celebrateAside from Aranda himself, Lagway is as responsible as anyone for getting his coach fired. So, it's good to see he came ready to perform today. No excuses the rest of the season.r/CFB game thread
Q3 8:29Baylor fans celebrate firing Aranda as Lagway throws Freeman for a touchdownCrazy what happens when you fire bum ass coachesr/CFB game thread

Baylor’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Baylor -2.5), at 50% for Baylor (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a UCF or Baylor flair (385 and 248); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Baylor’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Baylor scored on 7 of its 14 drives; UCF on 3 of its 15.

Baylor’s drives are teal, UCF’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

How fans reacted

Quiet

The third quarter is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Baylor fans

aranda“I legit think Aranda was an energy vampire. Look how hard we’re playing tonight”

UCF fans

frost““I don’t think we’ll have a let down” said Scott Frost about this game after upsetting #2 BYU”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: every, back, space, now.

What it cost

Baylor’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 2%.

Make the playoff

Baylor · won1% → ▲2%

UCF · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

Baylor · won1% → ▲2%

UCF · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 29, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Baylor plays vs Iowa State on Sat Nov 7 with a 2% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Baylor 41, UCF 9

Baylor covered −2.5 by 29.5. The total, 50, went over 49.5.

Team totals	Baylor	UCF
Total yards	503	281
Passing	16 of 25, 319 yds	22 of 37, 215 yds
Rushing	42 for 184 yds	30 for 66 yds
First downs	19	14
Third down	7 of 16	2 of 15
Fourth down	0 of 1	0 of 3
Turnovers	0	2
Penalties	12 for 85 yds	6 for 41 yds
Time of possession	29:08	30:52

Baylor leaders

Passing D.J. Lagway 16 of 25, 319 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Ryelan Morris 11 for 82 yds; Michael Turner 12 for 41 yds
Receiving Gavin Freeman 5 for 114 yds, 1 TD; Jadon Porter 2 for 74 yds

UCF leaders

Passing Alonza Barnett 8 of 16, 133 yds
Rushing Rocco Marriott 2 for 50 yds; Landen Chambers 7 for 24 yds
Receiving Joshua Derry 3 for 70 yds; Waden Charles 5 for 45 yds

No rain and calm

77° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 8 mph from the northeast, gusts to 16

October game-day temperatures at FBC Mortgage Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:55 left7:35 p.m.

Baylor 0, UCF 0 · UCF 50% to win

no rain · wind 9 mph from the northeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 16 · 77°

Knighten 3-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Orlando/herndon airport, 9.5 miles away, and Sanford/orlando airport, 12 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Baylor · 4-3

Rated 33rd in our preseason ratings, 35th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 36-point win over Arizona State as a 3.5-point underdog.

L 24-25 @ Kansas No. 61 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 6-17 vs TCU No. 35 of 668 teams

lost by 11 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 55-19 @ Arizona State No. 65 of 668 teams

won by 36 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 23-13 vs Colorado No. 119 of 668 teams

won by 10 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 36-19 vs Louisiana Tech No. 91 of 668 teams

won by 17 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 44-3 vs Prairie View A&M No. 108 of 668 teams

won by 41 as a 37.5-point favorite

L 16-17 @ Auburn No. 70 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 6.5-point underdog

Last three games

UCF · 4-3

Rated 103rd in our preseason ratings, 57th now, up 46 spots.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 8-point win over BYU as a 7.5-point underdog.

W 39-31 vs BYUTop 25 No. 14 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 28-42 @ Oklahoma StateTop 25 No. 117 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 10.5-point underdog

L 17-27 @ HoustonTop 25 No. 14 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 10.5-point underdog

W 21-13 vs TCU No. 49 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 44-30 vs Georgia State No. 128 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 7-12 @ PittsburghTop 25 No. 48 of 668 teams

lost by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 73-6 vs Bethune-Cookman No. 184 of 668 teams

won by 67 as a 43.5-point favorite

Week by week

UCF

Wk 3Wvs Georgia State44-30
Wk 4Wvs TCU21-13
Wk 5Lat Houston17-27
Wk 6Lat Oklahoma State28-42
Wk 8Wvs BYU39-31

Baylor

Wk 3Wvs Louisiana Tech36-19
Wk 4Wvs Colorado23-13
Wk 5Wat Arizona State55-19
Wk 7Lvs TCU6-17
Wk 8Lat Kansas24-25

Power rating by week

Baylor is rated 3.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UCF’s EPA/play against Baylor, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

UCF’s EPA/play against Baylor’s defense
UCF offense, 34th percentile · Baylor defense, 97th
UCF’s passing EPA against Baylor’s defense
UCF offense, 31st percentile · Baylor defense, 93rd
Baylor’s explosive plays against UCF’s defense
Baylor offense, 92nd percentile · UCF defense, 74th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

BaylorUCF

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Baylor leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 2013 · Baylor has won the last 2

2025Baylor 30-3
2023Baylor 36-35
2013 · neutral siteUCF 52-42

Each line is UCF’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Baylor fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (69th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Baylor favored by 2.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Baylor by 2.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 304 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Baylor.

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UCF is worth +5.9 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.

73% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (36-13 home, 19-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.5 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 973 miles to get here.

The story going in

Baylor fires Dave ArandaOct 25, 2026

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

UCF7th2-2
Baylor9th2-2

Full Big 12 standings

Baylor routs UCF 41-9