USC 39-0 Fresno State (Sep 4, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Fresno State · USC

Fresno State0-10

No. 14 USC2-039Final

Fri, Sep 4 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, Calif. · Crowd 53,014

No. 14 USC routed Fresno State 39-0.

We had USC favored. It won.

Next: Fresno State beat Sacramento State 49-3, Sat Sep 12

Next: USC beat Louisiana 49-30, Sat Sep 12

Top comment in the game thread

Hold the phone everybody. That safety might not count because there are empty seats in coliseum.

Q2 7:09 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Sep 4

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave USC a 69% chance, and the closing betting line (USC was a 21.5-point favorite) put it at 96%.

Safety

USC · Q2 7:09SafetyQ3 5:15

FinalUSC 39-0 Fresno StateUSC wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 7:09Quoted at the top of the page.Absolutely rattledr/CFB game thread
Q2 4:07Maiava passes to Mosley for a touchdown as USC fans praise his dominancemany people, including many intelligent people, are saying that mosley is goodr/CFB game thread
Q3 5:15USC defense records second safety, making it two in the gameSafety dance!r/CFB game threadSAFETY #2!r/CFB game thread

USC’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (USC -21.5), at 93% for USC (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a USC or Fresno State flair (906 and 204); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show USC’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

USC scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Fresno State on 0 of its 10.

USC’s drives are teal, Fresno State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Hold the phone everybody. That safety might not count because there are empty seats in coliseum.”

A USC fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Fresno State fans

mandal“Getting a safety from the 25 is gonna be tough, but Mandal is the man for it”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: don, back, getting, ball.

What it cost

USC’s chance to make the playoff rose from 44% to 46%.

Make the playoff

Fresno State · lost2% → 2%

USC · won44% → ▲46%

Win the conference

Fresno State · lost8% → ▼7%

USC · won10% → ▲11%

Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

USC 39, Fresno State 0

USC covered −21.5 by 17.5. The total, 39, stayed under 51.5.

Team totals	Fresno State	USC
Total yards	116	552
Passing	7 of 15, 77 yds	29 of 31, 412 yds
Rushing	29 for 39 yds	37 for 140 yds
First downs	9	27
Third down	2 of 10	5 of 8
Fourth down	0 of 1	1 of 2
Turnovers	2	2
Penalties	3 for 10 yds	5 for 44 yds
Time of possession	21:08	38:52

Fresno State leaders

Passing Jayden Mandal 7 of 15, 77 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Rayshon Luke 8 for 21 yds; Bryson Donelson 6 for 15 yds
Receiving Harold Duvall 2 for 34 yds; Jahlil McClain 1 for 13 yds

USC leaders

Passing Jayden Maiava 23 of 25, 349 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Waymond Jordan 11 for 67 yds, 1 TD; King Miller 15 for 45 yds
Receiving Trent Mosley 4 for 104 yds, 2 TD; Kayden Dixon-Wyatt 6 for 102 yds

No rain and calm

76° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 7 mph from the west-northwest, gusts to 15

September game-day temperatures at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:52 left6:06 p.m.

Fresno State 0, USC 0 · USC 93% to win

no rain · wind 8 mph from the west-northwest, gusts to 15 · 75°

Jordan run for a 1-yd loss

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Hawthorne Municipal airport, 6.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Fresno State · 9-4

Rated 53rd in our preseason ratings.

W 18-3 vs Miami (OH) #96 of 667

won by 15 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 41-14 @ San José State #170 of 667

won by 27 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 17-28 vs Utah State #92 of 667

lost by 11 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 24-3 vs Wyoming #131 of 667

won by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 30-7 @ Boise StateTop 25 #51 of 667

won by 23 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 0-23 vs San Diego State #54 of 667

lost by 23 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 21-49 @ Colorado State #98 of 667

lost by 28 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 20-17 vs Nevada #153 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 23-21 @ Hawai'i #152 of 667

won by 2 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 56-7 vs Southern #228 of 667

won by 49 as a 35.5-point favorite

W 36-27 @ Oregon State #82 of 667

won by 9 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 42-14 vs Georgia Southern #94 of 667

won by 28 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 7-31 @ Kansas #28 of 667

lost by 24 as a 14.5-point underdog

Last three games · 2025 season

USC · 9-4

Rated 28th in our preseason ratings, 28th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 27-30 @ TCUTop 25 #33 of 667

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 29-10 vs UCLA #88 of 667

won by 19 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 27-42 @ OregonTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 15 as a 12.5-point underdog

W 26-21 vs IowaTop 25 #25 of 667

won by 5 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 38-17 vs Northwestern #63 of 667

won by 21 as a 14.5-point favorite

W 21-17 @ NebraskaTop 25 #46 of 667

won by 4 as a 4.5-point favorite

L 24-34 @ Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 10 as a 10.5-point underdog

W 31-13 vs MichiganTop 25 #23 of 667

won by 18 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 32-34 @ IllinoisTop 25 #46 of 667

lost by 2 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 45-31 vs Michigan State #71 of 667

won by 14 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 33-17 @ Purdue #97 of 667

won by 16 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 59-20 vs Georgia Southern #98 of 667

won by 39 as a 28.5-point favorite

W 73-13 vs Missouri State #138 of 667

won by 60 as a 36.5-point favorite

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: USC’s success rate against Fresno State, 58 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

USC’s success rate against Fresno State’s defense
USC offense, 96th percentile · Fresno State defense, 38th
USC’s passing EPA against Fresno State’s defense
USC offense, 97th percentile · Fresno State defense, 53rd
Fresno State’s explosive plays against USC’s defense
Fresno State offense, 59th percentile · USC defense, 28th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Fresno StateUSC

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

USC leads the series 5-1

6 meetings since 1992 · USC has won the last 5

2022USC 45-17
2019USC 31-23
2014USC 52-13
2013 · neutral siteUSC 45-20
2005USC 50-42

Each line is USC’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Fresno State fans are in a better mood than USC fans (41st vs 17th among FBS fanbases), even with USC favored.

USC favored by 21.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

USC by 21.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Fresno State.

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

USC is worth +5.5 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 74th percentile.

70% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (38-16 home, 22-20 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.0 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±4.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 210 miles to get here.

No. 14 USC routs Fresno State 39-0