No. 18 Penn State routs Marshall 45-0
Team pages: Marshall · Penn State
No. 18 Penn State routed Marshall 45-0. Share this game
We had Marshall favored. Penn State won.
Top comment in the game thread
Is Penn State…fun to watch?
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Penn State a 45% chance, and the closing betting line (Penn State was a 23.5-point favorite) put it at 97%.
Penn State led by 17 after the first quarter and by 24 at the half.
Penn State 45-0 Marshall
Penn State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Marshall 0-45 Penn StateMarshall lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 10:35Penn State fans celebrate Becht's poise and deep pass to Howard
Becht hit Howard on the numbers. I mean… I have a tear in my eye because it feels like that hasn’t happened since Trace.
r/CFB game thread - Q1 7:16Quoted at the top of the page.
Matt Campbell is teaching me how to love again
r/CFB game thread - Q1 4:49Penn State fans mock soft holding call on Del Rio-Wilson run
Insanely soft call lmfao
r/CFB game thread - Q2 4:28Becht throws 42-yard pass to Howard as fans celebrate aggressive passing
Imagine if Franklin would have used Howard
r/CFB game threadI love Koby Howard, bro is going to have a great season
r/CFB game thread - Q3 6:16Martin 6-yd TD run, Penn State leads 38-0
Needed a rushing td for confidence
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Penn State -23.5), at 96% for Penn State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Penn State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 8:35Becht 42-yd TD pass to HowardPenn State leads 10-0Q1, 8:35 · Penn State 10, Marshall 010-0score after the play10-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q3, 11:14Becht 39-yd TD pass to RobinsonPenn State leads 31-0Q3, 11:14 · Penn State 31, Marshall 031-0score after the play31-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q3, 6:16Martin 6-yd TD runPenn State leads 38-0Q3, 6:16 · Penn State 38, Marshall 038-0score after the play38-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 11:17Turner intercepted by Williams at the Marshall 30Q4, 11:17 · Penn State 38, Marshall 038-0score after the play38-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
- Q4, 7:59Wallace 6-yd TD runPenn State leads 45-0Q4, 7:59 · Penn State 45, Marshall 045-0score after the play45-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
Every drive
Penn State scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Marshall on 0 of its 12.
Penn State’s drives are teal, Marshall’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“I forgot how much I love watching WRs catch passes.”
When fans got loud
Busy
Fans were up and loud before the first quarter was out.
The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.
What it cost
Penn State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 2% to 3%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Penn State 45, Marshall 0
Penn State covered −23.5 by 21.5. The total, 45, stayed under 53.5.
| Team totals | Marshall | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 147 | 487 |
| Passing | 19 of 28, 103 yds | 20 of 27, 324 yds |
| Rushing | 26 for 44 yds | 45 for 163 yds |
| First downs | 11 | 25 |
| Third down | 1 of 11 | 8 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 4 for 45 yds | 4 for 45 yds |
| Time of possession | 23:47 | 36:13 |
Marshall leaders
- Passing Carlos Del Rio-Wilson 17 of 25, 102 yds
- Rushing Carlos Del Rio-Wilson 13 for 30 yds; TJ Lester 2 for 6 yds
- Receiving Toby Payne 8 for 55 yds; Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw 3 for 17 yds
Penn State leaders
- Passing Rocco Becht 13 of 18, 271 yds, 4 TD
- Rushing Carson Hansen 11 for 48 yds; Cam Wallace 11 for 42 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Koby Howard 6 for 161 yds, 1 TD; Brett Eskildsen 5 for 48 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
79° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 69 other games played at Beaver Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window).
September game-day temperatures at Beaver Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at State College airport, 2.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Marshall · 5-7
Rated 23rd in our preseason ratings.
L 19-24 vs Georgia Southern #137 of 667
lost by 5 as a 10.5-point favorite
L 24-26 @ App State #153 of 667
lost by 2 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 30-18 @ Georgia State #188 of 667
won by 12 as a 9.5-point favorite
L 23-35 vs James MadisonTop 25 #31 of 667
lost by 12 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 27-44 @ Coastal Carolina #129 of 667
lost by 17 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 40-37 vs Texas State #67 of 667
won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 48-24 vs Old Dominion #60 of 667
won by 24 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 51-54 @ Louisiana #118 of 667
lost by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 42-28 @ Middle Tennessee #188 of 667
won by 14 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 38-7 vs Eastern Kentucky #175 of 667
won by 31 as a 17.5-point favorite
L 20-21 vs Missouri State #123 of 667
lost by 1 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 7-45 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667
lost by 38 as a 38.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Penn State · 7-6
Rated 46th in our preseason ratings.
W 22-10 @ ClemsonTop 25 #23 of 667
won by 12 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 40-36 @ Rutgers #79 of 667
won by 4 as a 14.5-point favorite
W 37-10 vs NebraskaTop 25 #62 of 667
won by 27 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 28-10 @ Michigan State #87 of 667
won by 18 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 24-27 vs IndianaTop 25 #5 of 667
lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 14-38 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667
lost by 24 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 24-25 @ IowaTop 25 #37 of 667
lost by 1 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 21-22 vs Northwestern #61 of 667
lost by 1 as a 20.5-point favorite
L 37-42 @ UCLA #61 of 667
lost by 5 as a 24.5-point favorite
L 24-30 vs OregonTop 25 #2 of 667
lost by 6 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 52-6 vs Villanova #145 of 667
won by 46 as a 47.5-point favorite
W 34-0 vs Florida International #108 of 667
won by 34 as a 41.5-point favorite
W 46-11 vs Nevada #139 of 667
won by 35 as a 43.5-point favorite
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Penn State’s passing EPA against Marshall, 68 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Penn State’s passing EPA against Marshall’s defense
Penn State offense, 74th percentile · Marshall defense, 6th
Penn State’s EPA/play against Marshall’s defense
Penn State offense, 41st percentile · Marshall defense, 8th
Marshall’s explosive plays against Penn State’s defense
Marshall offense, 21st percentile · Penn State defense, 55th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Penn State leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 1929 · Penn State has won the last 2
- 1930Penn State 65-0
- 1929Penn State 26-7
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Marshall fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (87th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 45%
- Line · 97%
- Penn State fans · 27th
- Marshall fans · 87th
Penn State favored by 23.5 · Total 53.5
How games like this usually go
Penn State by 23.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 78° at kickoff.
Marshall at Penn State · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Beaver Stadium, University Park
- 78°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 90weather score, Comfortable
- Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Beaver Stadium that day, a 6 pm, 7 pm or 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 90 at 3:30 pm.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- noon: 91, Comfortable
- 12:45 pm: 89, Mixed
- 2 pm: 90, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 90, Comfortable (this game)
- 6 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7:45 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Penn State is worth +3.9 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.
73% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (41-15 home, 26-15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.7 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 294 miles to get here.