UCLA 28-10 San Diego State (Sep 12, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: San Diego State · UCLA

San Diego State1-110

UCLA2-028Final

Sat, Sep 12 · Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif. · Crowd 31,976BTN

UCLA beat San Diego State 28-10.

We had UCLA favored. It won.

Next: San Diego State lost to James Madison 26-13, Sat Sep 19

Next: UCLA beat Purdue 52-38, Sat Sep 19

Top comment in the game thread

SDSU playing offense the same way I play Madden

Q3 10:20 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UCLA a 56% chance, and the closing betting line (UCLA was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.

Favored the whole way: UCLA never fell below 75%.

San Diego State never had better than a 24% chance.

FinalUCLA 28-10 San Diego StateUCLA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 9:19UCLA fans rip Iamaleava for throwing an interception in the end zoneWtf was that Nicor/CFB game thread
Q3 12:34UCLA fans celebrate Knight's touchdown run as SDSU fans lament the scorelets just keep giving the ball to knight the comittee approach is cool but we can all see who rb1 isr/CFB game threadWhat is this... a touchdown? In my PAC 12 - B1G contest?r/CFB game thread
Q3 10:20Quoted at the top of the page.Glass half full. Ucla defense may be amazing. Anyone think of that? Huh? Hmmm? ^^^^*huffs-hopium*r/CFB game thread
Q4 7:17Woods intercepts Denegal as fans mock SDSU passing and celebrate the turnoverA bunch of cold french fries appeared on the video board after the INT how I love you college footballr/CFB game thread

UCLA’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (UCLA -13.5), at 88% for UCLA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a UCLA or San Diego State flair (200 and 53); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show UCLA’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

UCLA scored on 4 of its 12 drives; San Diego State on 2 of its 11.

UCLA’s drives are teal, San Diego State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Can we consider a pass that travels less then 40 yards in the air?”

A San Diego State fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were loudest in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

San Diego State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 11% to 8%.

Make the playoff

San Diego State · lost11% → ▼8%

UCLA · won11% → ▲12%

Win the conference

San Diego State · lost31% → ▼30%

UCLA · won4% → 4%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

UCLA 28, San Diego State 10

UCLA covered −13.5 by 4.5. The total, 38, stayed under 53.5.

Team totals	San Diego State	UCLA
Total yards	189	365
Passing	6 of 18, 45 yds	14 of 23, 151 yds
Rushing	38 for 144 yds	43 for 214 yds
First downs	14	19
Third down	2 of 12	4 of 11
Fourth down	0 of 1	0 of 1
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	4 for 37 yds	8 for 70 yds
Time of possession	25:05	34:55

San Diego State leaders

Passing Jayden Denegal 6 of 17, 45 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Lucky Sutton 19 for 81 yds; Javion Kinnard 12 for 48 yds
Receiving Jackson Ford 1 for 19 yds, 1 TD; Javion Kinnard 1 for 10 yds

UCLA leaders

Passing Nico Iamaleava 14 of 22, 151 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Wayne Knight 13 for 97 yds, 3 TD; Nico Iamaleava 13 for 57 yds
Receiving Semaj Morgan 6 for 73 yds; Brian Rowe Jr. 5 for 63 yds

No rain through the game

77° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 80°, with about 7 in 10 games between 71° and 89°.

September game-day temperatures at Rose Bowl

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:54 left4:17 p.m.

San Diego State 0, UCLA 0 · UCLA 88% to win

77°

Iamaleava 9-yd pass to Rowe

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Mount Wilson airport, 7.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

San Diego State · 9-4

Rated 36th in our preseason ratings, 40th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 47-49 vs North TexasTop 25 #45 of 667

lost by 2 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 17-23 @ New Mexico #83 of 667

lost by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 25-3 vs San José State #148 of 667

won by 22 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 17-7 vs Boise StateTop 25 #54 of 667

won by 10 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 6-38 @ Hawai'i #95 of 667

lost by 32 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 24-7 vs Wyoming #112 of 667

won by 17 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 23-0 @ Fresno State #136 of 667

won by 23 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 44-10 @ Nevada #181 of 667

won by 34 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 45-24 vs Colorado State #127 of 667

won by 21 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 6-3 @ Northern Illinois #126 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 34-0 vs California #58 of 667

won by 34 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 13-36 @ Washington State #106 of 667

lost by 23 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 42-0 vs Stony Brook #200 of 667

won by 42 as a 19.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

UCLA · 3-9

Rated 62nd in our preseason ratings, 59th now.

Three straight losses.

L 10-29 @ USCTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 19 as a 21.5-point underdog

L 14-48 vs WashingtonTop 25 #16 of 667

lost by 34 as a 10.5-point underdog

L 10-48 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

lost by 38 as a 32.5-point underdog

L 21-28 vs NebraskaTop 25 #47 of 667

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 6-56 @ IndianaTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 50 as a 27.5-point underdog

W 20-17 vs Maryland #57 of 667

won by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 38-13 @ Michigan State #84 of 667

won by 25 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 42-37 vs Penn StateTop 25 #13 of 667

won by 5 as a 24.5-point underdog

L 14-17 @ Northwestern #73 of 667

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 10-35 vs New Mexico #111 of 667

lost by 25 as a 15.5-point favorite

L 23-30 @ UNLV #71 of 667

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 10-43 vs UtahTop 25 #44 of 667

lost by 33 as a 6.5-point underdog

Week by week

UCLA

Wk 1Wat California45-24

San Diego State

Wk 1Wvs Portland State53-20

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: San Diego State’s EPA/play against UCLA, 95 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

San Diego State’s EPA/play against UCLA’s defense
San Diego State offense, 3rd percentile · UCLA defense, 98th
San Diego State’s passing EPA against UCLA’s defense
San Diego State offense, 5th percentile · UCLA defense, 98th
San Diego State’s explosive plays against UCLA’s defense
San Diego State offense, 15th percentile · UCLA defense, 91st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

San Diego StateUCLA

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

UCLA leads the series 18-1

19 meetings since 1933 · UCLA won the last meeting

2023UCLA 35-10
2019San Diego State 23-14
2009UCLA 33-14
2005UCLA 44-21
2004UCLA 33-10

Each line is UCLA’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

San Diego State fans are in a better mood than UCLA fans (80th vs 23rd among FBS fanbases), even with UCLA favored.

UCLA favored by 13.5 · Total 53.5

How games like this usually go

UCLA by 13.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 5 points toward UCLA.

The total rose 0.5 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UCLA has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.1 points (±4.0), home against road — 2nd percentile of FBS.

49% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (25-26 home, 21-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.7 at home vs. away over 97 games — outside the ±6.3 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 113 miles to get here.

UCLA beats San Diego State 28-10