Oregon 34-26 Northwestern (Oct 31, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Northwestern · Oregon

No. 20 Northwestern6-226

Oregon5-334Final

Sat, Oct 31 · Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore. · Crowd 55,673

Oregon beat No. 20 Northwestern 34-26.

We had Northwestern favored. Oregon won.

Next: Northwestern vs Iowa, Sat Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET · Northwestern favored by 2.5

Next: Oregon at Ohio State, Sat Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET · Oregon underdog by 7

Drew needs to be nuked for what he did to this team

An Oregon fan

How it swung

The turning point: Smith 2-yd TD run, Oregon goes ahead 27-23 (Q4, 14:19). Oregon went from 52% to 74% to win. Fans right then: “Flag came from the other side of the field too.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oregon a 49% chance, and the closing betting line (Oregon was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

Oregon came back from 14 down, at one point just a 14% chance in the second quarter.

Northwestern led by 14, was as high as 86% in the second quarter, and still lost.

75-yard TD pass

Oregon · Q4 10:20

FinalOregon 34-26 NorthwesternOregon wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 14:194th and 2Smith 2-yd TD run, Oregon goes ahead 27-23Oregon 52% → 74% (+22)
2Q4 10:20Raiola 75-yd TD pass to Moore, Oregon leads 34-26Oregon 66% → 88% (+22)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 14:194th and 2Smith 2-yd TD run, Oregon goes ahead 27-23Northwestern 48% → 26% (−22)
2Q4 10:20Raiola 75-yd TD pass to Moore, Oregon leads 34-26Northwestern 34% → 12% (−22)

Flag came from the other side of the field too.

Q3 0:39 · A Northwestern fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 5:57Chiles throws 64-yard touchdown to Wilde, Northwestern leads 10-0wilde nfl?r/CFB game thread
Q3 0:39Fans argue over a questionable pass interference call on Oregon's driveThe DB was only focused on holding. That's it.r/CFB game thread
Q4 12:07Chiles completes a 36-yard pass to Wilde, energizing Northwestern fanschiles carrying this teamr/CFB game thread

Oregon’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oregon -4), at 68% for Oregon (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Oregon or Northwestern flair (1,277 and 530); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Oregon’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Oregon scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Northwestern on 6 of its 11.

Oregon’s drives are teal, Northwestern’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Northwestern’s side

Northwestern’s best moment: Chiles 64-yd TD pass to Wilde, Northwestern leads 10-0 (Q1 5:57). It lifted Northwestern’s win chance by 14 points.

How Northwestern fans took it: “Gg ducks, I’ve always liked y’all’s vibe! Till next time!” r/CFB game thread

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans peaked in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Northwestern fans

chiles“sure Jeremiah smith is incredible, but I’m not sure there is a player in all of college football who has elevated his team more than Aidan Chiles”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, don, now, run.

The winner fell to 12%.

What it cost

Northwestern’s chance to make the playoff fell from 14% to 8%.

Make the playoff

Northwestern · lost14% → ▼8%

Oregon · won11% → ▲14%

Win the conference

Northwestern · lost4% → ▼2%

Oregon · won3% → ▲4%

Win the title

Northwestern · lost1% → ▼0%

Oregon · won1% → ▲2%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Northwestern plays vs Iowa on Sat Nov 7 with an 8% chance to make the playoff. Oregon plays at Ohio State on Sat Nov 7 with a 14% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Oregon 34, Northwestern 26

Oregon covered −4 by 4. The total, 60, went over 47.5.

Team totals	Northwestern	Oregon
Total yards	456	441
Passing	22 of 38, 281 yds	22 of 31, 336 yds
Rushing	36 for 175 yds	28 for 105 yds
First downs	22	17
Third down	7 of 17	6 of 14
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 1
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	5 for 35 yds	1 for 5 yds
Time of possession	35:54	24:06

Northwestern leaders

Passing Aidan Chiles 22 of 38, 281 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Aidan Chiles 14 for 93 yds, 1 TD; Caleb Komolafe 16 for 67 yds
Receiving Griffin Wilde 5 for 146 yds, 1 TD; Luke Dehnicke 3 for 43 yds

Oregon leaders

Passing Dylan Raiola 22 of 31, 336 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Brandon Smith 8 for 82 yds, 1 TD; Dierre Hill Jr. 4 for 21 yds
Receiving Dakorien Moore 7 for 128 yds, 2 TD; Evan Stewart 4 for 71 yds

No rain and calm

42° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the north-northwest, gusts to 9

The usual here around this date is 51°, with about 7 in 10 games between 41° and 61°.

October game-day temperatures at Autzen Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 10:20 left3:24 p.m.

Northwestern 26, Oregon 34 · Oregon 88% to win

no rain · wind 2 mph from the northeast · 45°

Raiola 75-yd TD pass to Moore, Oregon leads 34-26

Measured at Eugene/mahlon Sweet airport, 8.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Northwestern · 6-1

Rated 14th in our preseason ratings, 12th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 42-14 vs Rutgers No. 100 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 15.5-point favorite

W 24-21 @ Michigan State No. 124 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 45-14 vs Ball State No. 166 of 668 teams

won by 31 as a 34.5-point favorite

W 34-13 vs Penn StateTop 25 No. 36 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 3-point underdog

L 23-29 @ IndianaTop 25 No. 6 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 20.5-point underdog

W 41-7 vs Colorado No. 126 of 668 teams

won by 34 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 34-18 vs South Dakota State No. 104 of 668 teams

won by 16 as a 14-point favorite

Last three games

Oregon · 4-3

Rated 3rd in our preseason ratings, 9th now.

1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 10-21 @ Illinois No. 72 of 668 teams

lost by 11 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 17-14 vs Nebraska No. 15 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite

L 15-17 vs UCLATop 25 No. 21 of 668 teams

lost by 2 as a 10-point favorite

W 41-27 @ USCTop 25 No. 25 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 84-0 vs Portland State No. 244 of 668 teams

won by 84 as a 58.5-point favorite

L 31-39 @ Oklahoma StateTop 25 No. 231 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 34-27 vs Boise StateTop 25 No. 29 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 24.5-point favorite

Week by week

Oregon

Wk 3Wvs Portland State84-0
Wk 4Wat USC41-27
Wk 6Lvs UCLA15-17
Wk 7Wvs Nebraska17-14
Wk 8Lat Illinois10-21

Northwestern

Wk 4Lat Indiana23-29
Wk 5Wvs Penn State34-13
Wk 6Wvs Ball State45-14
Wk 7Wat Michigan State24-21
Wk 8Wvs Rutgers42-14

Power rating by week

Oregon is rated 0.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Northwestern’s explosive plays against Oregon, 57 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Northwestern’s explosive plays against Oregon’s defense
Northwestern offense, 84th percentile · Oregon defense, 27th
Oregon’s rushing EPA against Northwestern’s defense
Oregon offense, 16th percentile · Northwestern defense, 55th
Oregon’s EPA/play against Northwestern’s defense
Oregon offense, 49th percentile · Northwestern defense, 66th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NorthwesternOregon

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 1-1

2 meetings since 1974 · Oregon won the last meeting

2025Oregon 34-14
1974Northwestern 14-10

Each line is Oregon’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Northwestern fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (44th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Oregon favored by 4 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

Oregon by 4, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3.5 points toward Northwestern.

The total fell 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Oregon is worth +3.5 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 36th percentile.

92% at home, 71% on the road against FBS opponents (44-4 home, 29-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.7 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,777 miles to get here.

The story going in

Oregon fires offensive coordinator MehringerOct 25, 2026

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Oregon12th2-2
Northwestern5th3-1

Full Big Ten standings

Oregon upsets No. 20 Northwestern 34-26