UTSA beats Texas State 31-26
Team pages: UTSA · Texas State
UTSA beat Texas State 31-26. Share this game
We had UTSA favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: High 25-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 31-26 (Q4, 0:14). UTSA went from 39% to 96% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave UTSA a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (UTSA was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.
UTSA came back from 10 down, at one point just a 15% chance in the third quarter.
Texas State led by 10, was as high as 85% in the third quarter, and still lost.
Texas State · Q2 7:16
UTSA 31-26 Texas StateUTSA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Texas State 26-31 UTSATexas State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q2 13:09Jackson 16-yd TD run, ties it 7-7UTSA 69% → 46% (−23)
- 2Q4 11:54Peterson 2-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 24-23UTSA 24% → 48% (+24)
- 3Q4 0:14High 25-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 31-26UTSA 39% → 96% (+57)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q2 13:09Jackson 16-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Texas State 31% → 54% (+23)
- 2Q4 11:54Peterson 2-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 24-23Texas State 76% → 52% (−24)
- 3Q4 0:14High 25-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 31-26Texas State 61% → 4% (−57)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Texas State -1.5), at 40% for UTSA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
UTSA scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Texas State on 5 of its 12.
UTSA’s drives are teal, Texas State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Texas State’s side
Texas State’s best moment: Jackson 16-yd TD run, ties it 7-7 (Q2 13:09). It lifted Texas State’s win chance by 23 points.
“Endless pain for TxSt fans”
When fans got loud
Loud
The closing stretch drew the loudest reaction of the night.
The jump was loud; the crowd was quiet.
Too close to call on 53% of plays. The winner fell to 15%.
What it cost
UTSA’s chance to make the playoff rose from 5% to 6%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
UTSA 31, Texas State 26
UTSA covered +1.5 by 6.5. The total, 57, stayed under 65.5.
| Team totals | UTSA | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 398 | 481 |
| Passing | 29 of 43, 258 yds | 17 of 30, 192 yds |
| Rushing | 31 for 140 yds | 50 for 289 yds |
| First downs | 22 | 27 |
| Third down | 3 of 15 | 9 of 17 |
| Fourth down | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Penalties | 11 for 115 yds | 9 for 90 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:20 | 31:40 |
UTSA leaders
- Passing Owen McCown 28 of 42, 214 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Will Henderson III 14 for 80 yds; Brandon High 8 for 47 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Mekhi Anderson 5 for 83 yds, 1 TD; AJ Wilson 9 for 83 yds
Texas State leaders
- Passing Brad Jackson 17 of 30, 192 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Torrance Burgess Jr. 17 for 149 yds; Davian Jackson 18 for 99 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Kylen Evans 5 for 96 yds; Chris Dawn Jr. 7 for 54 yds, 1 TD
Feels like 107° to 111° through the game
98° at kickoff · feels like 107° to 111° · no rain recorded
A feels-like 111° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 59 other games played at Bobcat Stadium (TX) since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 83°, with about 7 in 10 games between 78° and 89°.
September game-day temperatures at Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at San Marcos (awos) airport, 3.8 miles away, and New Braunfels Muni Apt (was 3r5) airport, 14 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is I-35 Rivalry — see the full head-to-head history →
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
UTSA · 7-6
Rated 18th in our preseason ratings, 16th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 34-point win over East Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog.
W 57-20 vs Florida International #127 of 667
won by 37 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 24-27 vs Army #111 of 667
lost by 3 as an 8.5-point favorite
W 58-24 vs East Carolina #59 of 667
won by 34 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 28-7 @ Charlotte #231 of 667
won by 21 as a 17.5-point favorite
L 23-55 @ South FloridaTop 25 #19 of 667
lost by 32 as a 13.5-point underdog
W 48-26 vs TulaneTop 25 #63 of 667
won by 22 as a 5.5-point underdog
L 17-55 @ North TexasTop 25 #61 of 667
lost by 38 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 61-13 vs Rice #158 of 667
won by 48 as a 9.5-point favorite
L 21-27 @ Temple #114 of 667
lost by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 17-16 @ Colorado State #97 of 667
won by 1 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 48-20 vs Incarnate Word #136 of 667
won by 28 as a 21.5-point favorite
L 36-43 vs Texas State #64 of 667
lost by 7 as a 4.5-point favorite
L 24-42 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #19 of 667
lost by 18 as a 23.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Texas State · 7-6
Rated 34th in our preseason ratings, 31st now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 41-10 vs Rice #225 of 667
won by 31 as a 19.5-point favorite
W 49-26 vs South Alabama #134 of 667
won by 23 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 31-14 vs UL Monroe #204 of 667
won by 17 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 41-14 @ Southern Miss #103 of 667
won by 27 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 39-42 @ Louisiana #133 of 667
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 20-52 vs James MadisonTop 25 #34 of 667
lost by 32 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 37-40 @ Marshall #92 of 667
lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 41-48 vs Troy #88 of 667
lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 30-31 @ Arkansas State #147 of 667
lost by 1 as a 14.5-point favorite
W 35-3 vs Nicholls #202 of 667
won by 32 as a 32.5-point favorite
L 15-34 @ Arizona StateTop 25 #31 of 667
lost by 19 as an 18.5-point underdog
W 43-36 @ UTSA #52 of 667
won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog
W 52-27 vs Eastern Michigan #133 of 667
won by 25 as a 13.5-point favorite
Week by week
Texas State
- Wk 1Lat Texas7-59
UTSA
- Wk 1Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45-16
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Texas State’s passing EPA against UTSA, 66 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Texas State’s passing EPA against UTSA’s defense
Texas State offense, 98th percentile · UTSA defense, 32nd
Texas State’s EPA/play against UTSA’s defense
Texas State offense, 95th percentile · UTSA defense, 34th
UTSA’s explosive plays against Texas State’s defense
UTSA offense, 16th percentile · Texas State defense, 44th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
UTSA leads the series 5-2
7 meetings since 2012 · Texas State has won the last 2
- 2025Texas State 43-36
- 2024Texas State 49-10
- 2023UTSA 20-13
- 2020UTSA 51-48
- 2018UTSA 25-21
Each line is Texas State’s chance to win through that meeting. Texas State is 1-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
UTSA fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (47th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 39%
- Line · 55%
- Texas State fans · 3rd
- UTSA fans · 47th
Texas State favored by 1.5 · Total 65.5
How games like this usually go
Texas State by 1.5, on the usual path until 0:04 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The total rose 1 point.
Total: 64.5 → 65.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 110° at kickoff.
UTSA at Texas State · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos
- 110°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 33weather score, Harsh
- Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 5 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At Bobcat Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 57, against 33 at 2:30 pm.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- 11 am: 45, Harsh
- 2:30 pm: 33, Harsh (this game)
- 3:15 pm: 33, Harsh
- 6 pm: 47, Harsh
- 6:45 pm: 57, Rough
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Texas State is worth +5.3 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 72nd percentile.
47% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (21-24 home, 11-37 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 47 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- UTSA 51, Texas State 48Sep 12, 2020